The Strickland’s 2021-21 New York Knicks Playoff Preview Roundtable

The regular season is over… but the Knicks aren’t! The Strickland’s staff got together to preview the Knicks’ first round playoff series against the Hawks.

You’ve read The Strickland’s regular season review roundtable already, right? If you haven’t, make sure to do that. But here’s the thing with these 2020-21 Knicks — they’re not done yet! They’ve got a playoff series to hopefully win against the Hawks, starting on Sunday. We got our staff together to preview the series.

What’s going to be the key for the Knicks if they want a series win?

Prez: Controlling Bogdan Bogdanovic. I think containing Clint Capela’s rebounding is gonna be near impossible for the Knicks, and containing Trae Young is very tough to do for four games, but making Bogdan work by defending RJ Barrett/Alec Burks/Reggie Bullock will be key. He’s a great shooter, but he’s not a 47% shooter — no one not named Steph is — so make life difficult for him and make Trae revert back to his old ball hog ways.

Sam Gedeon: Making the others on Atlanta decision makers. I know Bogi has been really good for them and they use Lou Williams as a pseudo point guard off the bench. Those two aren’t nearly the playmakers Trae is, so forcing the ball into their hands as well as Collins, Huerter, and even Hunter could disrupt their offense. 

Stacy Patton: Pick-and-roll defense against Young and Capela. Taj Gibson will be important in battling Capela on the glass, but the reality is he’s going to feast anyway if the guards and big cannot contain Trae’s penetration. Nerlens Noel really struggled in the last game against Atlanta, and Elfrid Payton is not great at getting over screens to recover and contest, so it will be really important for both of them to play better than they did the last time out.  

Derek Reifer: Containing Capela’s rebounding and Trae’s creation are the obvious ones, but one thing I think the Knicks really need to do is find a way to exploit Trae on defense. He’s like a plastic bag floating around the perimeter at times, and the Knicks need to game matchups with screens and movement to take advantage of him when he’s on the floor, both for their immediate benefit and by making the Hawks’ primary offensive creator work/accumulate fouls. If he can hide in the corner on a disinterested Payton all series, it will be tough sledding for the Knicks.

Matthew Miranda: Bullock neutralizing Bogdanović. Bogie’s made more than half his 3-pointers for over a month now. His long-range bombing and playmaking ability take just enough pressure off Young to multiply the threat he presents. Bullock has been an exemplary 3-and-D presence all year for New York. If he can mostly cancel Atlanta’s secondary creative threat, the Knicks will have an easier time winning the series.  

Jack Huntley: The cosmic beauty of Frank Ntilikina.

Benjy Ritholtz: Point-of-attack defense on Trae. I’m fairly confident the Knicks will score enough to win against a fairly poor defense that they handled with ease in the regular season, but they struggled to contain Trae in all three games. He didn’t necessarily excel as a scorer, but when he got downhill, he was consistently able to hit his centers for lobs and his shooters for threes. If at the point of attack the Knicks can stay attached (looking at you, Elf, but also hopefully not looking at you), allowing their centers to hang with the lob (and on the glass) and their perimeter defenders to stay home on shooters, and force Trae into contested floaters, it should be their series to win. 

Collin Loring: Live and die by the 3-point line. Atlanta’s not shot well against the Knicks this season, and New York’s shot well against the Hawks. There’s a reason the series went 3-0 in the Knicks’ favor. Need all of Barrett, Bullock, and Randle to bring it from behind the arc.

Shwinnypooh: Pick-and-roll defense against Trae and Capela. I would elaborate, but I think it’s obvious why that’s the case.

Alex Wolfe: Establishing what the baseline of officiating is going to be against Trae Young early, and basing their strategy around that. If Trae isn’t getting the same type of ticky-tack calls that he’s built two All-Star seasons off of — thanks to the age-old tradition of refs letting teams play more in the playoffs — then the Knicks should be able to make his life a a living hell, and as a result, maybe make this series a quick one.

How many points will Julius Randle average (37.33 in the regular season vs. ATL)?

Prez: 34

Sam: 31

Stacy: 33

Derek: 25 — I think the Hawks’ game plan will be to lock him up and make him a creator

Miranda: 39. I would have typed “forty” but my number-that-comes-after-3 key isn’t working.

Jack: 37.33

Benjy: 32.3

Collin: 30-plus easily, no matter the outcome

Shwinnypooh: 32 

Alex: 28.7, but also 9.3 assists

Will there be any lineup changes? Should there be?

Prez: There should be. Obviously. Will there be? I have no goddamn clue.

Sam: There definitely should be, more specifically throwing a young, French prince at Trae to disrupt his offense. Maybe there will be, Thibs has been shedding No. 6’s minutes by the week, and maybe it’s a sign of things to come. 

Derek: I have very high confidence everyone contributing to and reading this piece knows there should be lineup changes. I have nearly-as-high confidence that there will not, in fact, be a lineup change.

Miranda: Yes, eventually. Yes, certainly.

Jack: Derrick Rose will start. Because starting matters. Because he already finishes. Because the reasons for him finishing apply equally to him starting. Because Trae Young has the defensive resistance of a cardboard ghost and we have to bludgeon that weakness to victory.

Benjy: In terms of the starting five, there may well be, though it may take a game or two for Thibs to finally commit. I’m now convinced that Rose and/or the training staff have determined it’s better for him to come in and stay in to avoid stiffening up on the bench. Frank Ntilikina is fun to think about, but I think Burks is a more likely starting candidate, and I wouldn’t mind seeing Reggie on Trae from the jump. 

In terms of rotations, I’ll be fascinated to see if Thibs is willing to go small, either when Collins plays center, or even to dare Capela to post up, which he doesn't really want to do. The Knicks played that way for a stretch in their January matchup against the Hawks (because Noel was out and Taj was at home waiting for Thibs’ call) and were unstoppable offensively — I’d love to see it for stretches in this series. 

Collin: If the New York Knicks come out and stink up Game 1, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a playoff-encouraged Thibs make a shift in the lineup. Obviously, at point guard. In terms of my preferences, and what I think would make the most sense: Burks, Immanuel Quickley, Rose, and Ntilikina — in that order. 

Shwinnypooh: There won’t be until Game 3, when Elf gets sent to Siberia. Rose starts, and Frank eats more specialist bench minutes.

Alex: Bold prediction: Ntilikina starts every game this series. Thibs comes out for Game 1 wearing glasses for the first time in his life, and apologizes for mixing up Elf for Frank as the “switchy defender” on the team this whole time.

How will the Knicks handle Trae Young?

Prez: A variety of looks. We’ve seen Thibs have his bigs play high to trap, but I suspect they’ll try to force Trae into floaters more often. RJ and Julius helping on the rolling Capela/Collins to Taj/Noel can force Trae into the middies, which will be critical.

Sam: I would say just throwing length at Trae to force him into tough jumpers. A mix of Reggie, RJ, and even Frank being deployed at different times could probably throw him off a bit. 

Jack: Unleash Frank until he fouls out after 10-15 minutes because Trae is sponsored by whoever the dominant global whistle manufacturer is. Then deploy Reggie.

Benjy: See above — stay attached at the point of attack, force as many contested floaters as possible. 

Collin: I’m thinking something along the lines of how teams have pressured Bradley Beal and Stephen Curry as of late. Keeping Trae from the rim seems like the easy answer.

Miranda: Better than most. Still, by the end of the series New York sports adds a new villain to its history.

Alex: As said above, get in his jersey if the refs let you. If they don’t, I think it then becomes more important to neutralize the shooters he can kick to than Trae himself. His idea of a good attempt is flailing and throwing some crap up that goes nowhere near the rim. If you can avoid the foul call there, that’s going to lead to a lot of garbage field goal attempts.

What’s the one thing that could sink the Knicks in this series?

Prez: At the risk of putting negative energy onto the page, there’s actually a lot of things. Elfrid. The refs. Rose’s ankle continuing to be gimpy. 

Sam: No. 6 being played any semblance of real minutes that are not garbage minutes. 

Jack: The Capela matchup. Keeping that man off the glass will require Nerlens playing with selective shot-blocking restraint and defensive discipline I’m not sure he has in him.

Benjy: Offensively, matchup hunting too often at the expense of early passing, pace, and ball movement, generally. Defensively, allowing Trae to pick them apart with his passing by giving him a runway. 

Collin: Live and die by the 3-point line. Make yours and defend theirs well, you get out unscathed. Miss a bunch of yours, allow a bunch on the other end, you’re leaving early.

Miranda: Noel and Gibson are far more than a stopgap at center. But dealing with Capela for a couple of weeks may take some of the shine off that duo.

Shwinnypooh: Defensive rebounding and an unnecessary dedication to giving Elf minutes.

Alex: Playing Elf. Getting destroyed by Capela. Trae getting a favorable whistle. Though I think I agree with Collin about what scares me the absolute most, which is that this six days off not only restores the Knicks’ legs, but also saps their 3-point shooting ability. They can’t afford to go cold from deep.

Give your most honest prediction that you can as far as how this series will go.

Prez: A six-game rollercoaster of emotions, with many nights (win or loss) ending with Knicks Twitter displaying the hateful spite towards Trae, Elf, and refs equal to the heat of 1000 suns. 

Collin: Knicks in six, comfortably. 

Sam: Knicks in six was trending the other day, and I think that is the most realistic situation. The Knicks also (kinda) have home court in Atlanta, so maybe they steal two on the road to shorten things up, but six is the most ideal and realistic. 

Derek: Welcoming the roast if/when I’m hopefully wrong, but my head says Hawks in seven. The Knicks are deep, but the Hawks are deeper.

Jack: Knicks in seven. Hoping that home court has a chance to matter. Julius Randle is the best player in the series. Trae Young cries for eternity. Bliss.

Benjy: Knicks in six, headed to the second round LOL. 

Miranda: Hawks in six. I like-a a good reverse jinx.

Shwinnypooh: Knicks in six if Thibs cuts the cord with Elf early. Hawks in six if he doesn’t.

Alex: Knicks in FIVE. I don’t know if I actually believe this, but I wanted to be different. And my wife bought us tickets to Game 5, so being at the clincher would be unbelievably dope.