The Strickland’s 2022-23 Knicks playoffs roundtable
The 2022-2023 regular season has come to a close, and now the Knicks have Donovan Mitchell and the Cavs next on the docket in the first round of the playoffs. Our staff got together to preview the series.
To the chagrin of many in the national media, the New York Knicks’ free agency “gamble” on Jalen Brunson has resulted in their second playoff berth in three years — this coming after they missed the postseason entirely over the previous seven seasons.
Their opponent? None other than the elusive Donovan Mitchell, the name most linked to the Knicks over a months-long stalemate between the Jazz and Knicks last summer that ultimately resulted with Mitchell landing in Cleveland.
Now, in a seemingly scripted continuation of last summer, Mitchell will face his hometown team in the first round of the playoffs.
After taking the season series three games to one, the Knicks will try and replicate those efforts and advance past the first round of the postseason for the first time since 2013.
So, what’s to expect?
We got together to explore the ins and outs of this matchup.
What’s your key to a series win if you’re the Knicks?
Stacy Patton: The Knicks need to generate a high volume of paint touches without turning the ball over or getting their shots blocked. They’ve been really good at that this year, led by Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett’s penetration ability, but the Cavs are a different beast. They are elite at forcing turnovers, and while they don’t invite penetration, they are more than comfortable in rotation, thanks in large part to Evan Mobley being a cheat code deployed like a hybrid of Dikembe Mutombo and Troy Polamalu. But while they are elite at contesting shots and forcing turnovers, the Cavs have been vulnerable on the glass. If the Knicks’ guards can draw help in the paint and kick out to shooters or at least get the ball up on the rim, there should be opportunities for Mitchell Robinson, Randle, and Isaiah Hartenstein to clean up. But they’ll have to be sound in their decision-making. They can’t bring weak stuff into the paint against Mobley and Jarrett Allen, and have to be able to make every part of the floor a threat.
Matthew Miranda: Randle playing 35-plus minutes a night. And not because of his scoring, though he’s obviously the Coke or Pepsi of the Knick offense, depending on your taste. I think Randle’s presence could be imperative to the Knick defense succeeding, for this reason: the Knicks were 19th in defensive rating, yet ninth in defensive rebounding. The Knicks’ best defensive rebounder was Randle; after him and the centers, next up is Josh Hart. It’s not like if Randle can’t go in Game 1, Tom Thibodeau will start Isiah Hartenstein or Jericho Sims in his place. He’ll pro’ly start Obi Toppin, whose strengths often lead him in different directions than the defensive glass. Pat Riley used to say no rebounds, no rings. In this series, it could be no rebounds, no Milwaukee next round.
Prez: Play “their game” versus the worst rebounding playoff team of the last three years, and survive Donny Mitchell scoring onslaughts. This Cavs team is meant to deploy future DPOY Mobley as a Giannis-esque roamer with Allen locking up the middle. However, if the Knicks play their game, MitchRob occupies Allen and Julius occupies Mobley, they should be able to put up some big scoring games. Then they can survive the inevitable Donny barrages.
Shwin: Whether we get the Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde version of Julius Randle. Last time we saw Randle on the floor he was in the midst of a horror show performance, out of whack with his general play this season, in which he had a mere two points during a listless first half against Miami in a high stakes game at the Garden. Injury cut his night short, and he’s missed the subsequent five games since, but his zero energy defensive display while looking completely shook offensively was eerily similar to the version of Randle that reappeared during the Hawks series in 2021 and persisted throughout in his annus horribilis last season. In the few weeks prior to the Heat game in which he was injured we saw a sharp decline in his defensive effort and multiple instances of him reverting into the type of overbearing, menacing teammate he had worked so hard not to be this season. At his best, when he’s locked in, Randle gives the Knicks a necessary injection of half court shot-making, playmaking, and defensive rebounding they need, with a unique ability to hold his own against bigs or switch out and credibly check perimeter creators. At his worst, well, we’ve seen it. Without the former, the Knicks’ chances of emerging victorious drop drastically.
Sam Gedeon: A key for the Knicks all season and more so as of late has been their depth outside of the main two options in Brunson and Randle. This will be especially key if Randle is to miss a game or two. The late season surges of Quentin Grimes and Toppin gaining offensive momentum will hopefully continue into this series as they will get a usage bump in Randle’s absence, if Randle’s unable to go in Game 1. As we all know, outside the Cavaliers’ main four guys, there really isn’t much to be afraid of, so if the Knicks can continue to get solid contributions from their “others,” that would go a very long way in keeping this series close and possibly even winning it.
Alex Wolfe: Winning the rebounding battle. The Knicks are just flat out a more physical team than the Cavs on the glass, and it’s been the key to their success for much of the year. Is it any coincidence that once they added Josh Hart (seven rebounds a game as a Knick), they went bonkers and won nine games in a row? This team loves second, third, and fourth opportunities to finish a possession – that’s why they out-rebounded opponents by almost five boards per game. The Cavs were a small net negative in that category this year. Grab the board, get into transition against one of the slowest teams in the NBA, dictate the pace, profit.
Collin Loring: It can’t hurt to score more points than the other team. According to my research, teams are 42,069-0 when they score more points than the other team.
What’s the number one thing that could damn New York in this series against Cleveland?
Stacy: Inability to mitigate dribble penetration. Notice I said “mitigate,” not stop. It’s unrealistic to expect anyone to lock up Mitchell and Garland or to think that the Knicks can keep them out of the paint all game, not least because they are liable to pull up from anywhere if given space. I’m not saying Mitchell and Garland have a plan B for every plan A. I’m saying they have plans C, D, E, and F. Every possession means defending a ton of different options they create. If you hang back on the drive, they can hit a three. If you play up, they can blow by you. If you try to funnel them toward help, they can wrong foot you with a lightning quick crossover. If they get to the paint and you sell out on the shot, they can hit the lob. If you hang back at the rim, they can kill you with floaters (or in Mitchell’s case, put you on a poster).
But what the Knicks can do is defend as a team and force them to plan G or H, which means taking a tough shot or giving the ball up to a less dangerous player in a less dangerous spot on the floor. The two keys to this are (a) not giving up when you get beat at the point of attack and (b) disciplined, dogged help defense. The Knicks’ guards are going to get beat, but they cannot get left in the dust. Keep fighting, try to recover, and trust that your help will get there in time to help you contest. But if you leave your bigs hanging out to dry with Garland and Mitchell coming downhill and are nowhere near the play, you’re going to have a bad time (just ask Trae Young and Nerlens Noel). This alludes to the second part: the Knicks’ help defenders have to do their part. Randle/RJ should know the personnel and help aggressively where they can, and Hartenstein and Mitch will have to be on top of their game with positioning.
This video from Jake Brown (part of a really excellent thread worth your time) is what I think this will look like when it goes well. Grimes gets beat, but doesn’t give up on the play. Mitchell still has a path, but Hartenstein forces an adjustment by putting his hands up while still taking away the passing lane. Mitchell is still capable of finishing around him, but that’s where Grimes continuing to fight means so much, as the adjustment allows him to force a jump ball.
Now, maintaining this level of effort and execution for seven games is a tall ask. And ultimately, if the Knicks are (understandably) not able to do it consistently enough, more than anything else I think that would be almost insurmountable.
Miranda: If Isaac Okoro is knocking down open jumpers, that means he’s going to on the floor more, which means he’ll be bugging Brunson more. That would not be fun for Brunson, the Knicks or you and me.
Prez: The fifth starter spot is the theoretical weak point for Cleveland, but Caris LeVert has been shooting great for 20 games and providing real size as a help defender. He’s cemented himself as The Fifth Guy, beyond the Reddish-level-rebounder Isaac Okoro and the non-descript Cedi Osman. If Caris stays on a heater, New York might be in trouble.
Shwin: Failing to capitalize when Cleveland has to rely on lineups with two or more reserves in them. The Knicks’ strength in numbers is one of the biggest advantages they have entering this series. If they cannot cash in when the opportunities are there to capitalize on Cleveland’s depleted post-Mitchell depth chart, they will not win this series.
Sam: I am going to combine Prez’s and Miranda’s answers into one and just say if the others for Cleveland can actually penalize the Knicks for their over-helping when it happens. So if the Dean Wades, Ricky Rubios and Okoros of the world start making shots, it could get ugly for the Knicks.
Alex: Not having enough defensive oomph to handle Mitchell and Garland on the perimeter. Brunson can hold his own, but he’s no elite defender. In an ideal world, you probably want to try to hide him on Okoro. In that case, Grimes probably ends up with Mitchell, and either RJ or Quick end up on Garland. Let’s just say I feel a little more comfortable about one of those guys in that matchup than the other and leave it at that.
Collin: Too much RJ Barrett is one of my primary concerns. While he’s played well enough against the Cavaliers this season – 15 points, six rebounds, 1.3 assists per game – he’s coming into this series in an all-time slump. If the head coach doesn’t give him the Elfrid Payton treatment after a similarly inadequate effort in a starting role, and lets him play through his struggles, there’s just no way New York walks out of this series on top. The regular season is “do, or get beat up and try again,” but the playoffs are “do or die.”
Donovan Mitchell averaged 31.8 points over the four-game regular season series, and Jalen Brunson averaged 25.3. Who will average more points in this playoff series?
Miranda: Mitchell. He’s not just going to wanna impress his fiancée, but also the mistress he longs to end up with.
Prez: Donny. Dude is a machine and the 3-point volume just makes the math easier for him.
Shwin: Brunson. I don’t give a shit if Mitchell’s the superior offensive talent. I’m betting on our guy to take this matchup personally and put the burden of winning or losing on his shoulders.
Sam: I also like Brunson here. The Cavaliers have one guy that has bothered Brunson this year and I would like to think that Brunson will rise above that. I think the Knicks have the adequate personnel to make it much harder for Mitchell. Also, Brunson just sees food when he sees Mitchell across the court.
Alex: Mitchell, but the eye test and assist totals will suggest Brunson is making a much bigger impact.
Collin: Alex hit it on the head. Brunson will finish the series having been the better player, but Mitchell will likely get the box score trophy (last place).
Outside of overall talent disparity, what’s the biggest Knicks flaw exposed by Julius Randle’s potential absence?
Miranda: That for all the joy and light this season has brought us, and despite Brunson’s ascension to the pantheon of herky-jerky syncopated combo guards, sans Caesar the Knicks have a dearth of players who can create their own looks against a tuned-in defense. That’s one reason Atlanta had such success against them two years ago; if Randle is absent or diminished and Cleveland is able to throw Brunson off his game, what’s the counter to the counter?
Prez: Having a physically larger offensive threat to occupy Mobley and draw fouls on the bigger Cavs. If I am Cleveland, I am happy to let Mobley roam off of Obi and dare Obi to hit five threes.
Shwin: The lack of off-the-dribble perimeter shot creation. Brunson can get his, and Quickley’s certainly capable, but aside from that there’s not a ton. RJ can create offense, but he’s extremely reliant on drives into the paint and has flashed almost nothing in terms of pull-up shooting from beyond the arc or mid-range. Grimes might develop that part of his game moving forward, but it is not part of his scoring package right now. Hart? Obi? Not a ton there.
Alex: Pretty much what Shwin said. The playoffs are the time where you need multiple guys you can just hand the ball to and tell to get a bucket. Brunson is one of them, and Randle is the other for the Knicks this year. Without him, they’ll need to be a lot more creative to create buckets in crunch time, and for all the successes the Knicks have had this year, that’s still not exactly Thibs’ strong suit.
Collin: I stand by my shtick that too much RJ is an unfortunate repercussion of Randle being anything less than game shape. But when you look at the numbers (hat tip to Cleaning the Glass), the biggest statistical downfall for non-Randle lineups is the free throw rate, which checks out. New York is in the 76th percentile for free throw rate when Randle is on the floor, and fall all the way into the 32nd when he’s off. I think this all ties into a bunch of what’s being discussed above, and speaks to what it means to be a “star” in today’s NBA. It sounds like he’s going to play, though.
Which player will be the least-expected X-factor for the Knicks?
Stacy: RJ has had an up-and-down season, but he’s still flashed the talent to a swing a game, especially when he has a favorable matchup. While RJ has struggled with his jump shot, one thing he can still do is bully a smaller defender. The Miami Heat are an elite defensive team with a strong rim protector (just ask Jayson Tatum), but when Tyler Herro is on the floor, the Knicks hunt him ruthlessly with Barrett. Grimes’ improved play as a screener/roll man makes it especially difficult to hide a smaller defender on him, as the Knicks will screen with him and get the ball handler downhill matchups with the smaller guard. If the Cavs put Garland on Grimes as expected, I expect the Knicks to use him frequently as a screener, especially since the Cavs’ bigs are adept pick-and-roll defenders. We saw the Knicks do this last game (whether it was Garland or Mitchell on Grimes) and Brunson killed them no matter how they defended it, but with Okoro on Brunson this may be more difficult. Therefore, there will likely be some times where they go to RJ-Grimes PnR (or double hand-off [DHO]), and RJ should be able to force switches and get downhill with a head of steam.
At this point, what it will come down to is RJ’s ability to get his rim reads right. He has been better after the All-Star break kicking out to shooters instead of forcing bad shots, but this will be even more difficult and vital against Mobley and Allen, who can contest shots, take away lobs, and muck up passing lanes. Patience, footwork, and trusting his keys will be more important than ever for RJ, but if he can, I believe he has the ability to swing this series by exploiting the smaller Cavs guards/wings on the perimeter.
Miranda: Deuce McBride. If Randle is at least compromised, Toppin’s minutes will go up and there’ll be an opening for more bench minutes. Going up against a team with Garland and Mitchell in their backcourt, best believe McBride’s number is gonna get called on at some point – maybe even during a crucial fourth-quarter stretch.
Prez: Hartenstein. If the Cavs’ scorers draw fouls on Mitch – and they will at some point in the series – the Knicks will be depending on iHart to continue implementing the glass-and-smash game plan.
Shwin: I’ve been pretty bearish on RJ’s ability to make an impact in this series, so I will say him. It isn’t, and very rarely is ever, a question of if he can create advantages offensively — it’s about his decision-making to capitalize when he does successfully create them. The decision-making has been better on drives post-All-Star break, and while the defense has remained uninspiring, there is an uptick in general effort. Maybe the playoff spotlight gets the most of what RJ can offer.
Sam: Josh Hart. Will he take open 3-pointers? Will he continue to be on a heater from 3-point range? If the answer to both those questions happens to be yes, he will definitely earn more minutes and he is someone who definitely pestered the hell out of Mitchell in that last matchup. I think all of that is key to a series win.
Alex: I dunno if he qualifies as “unexpected,” but I’m hoping that Grimes carries over his fantastic shooting to end the regular season and makes the Cavs pay a lot for doubling Randle and Brunson. Ditto for RJ, but at least in the outside shooting department, I have a lot more faith in Grimes at the moment.
Collin: Live by the three, die by the three. Grimes shot just 5-19 from deep in three games against Cleveland this season. He closed the year on a blazing hot streak (.484 clip on 9.1 attempts over his last 10 games), and that version of him is the kind of “put you over the top” quantity the Knicks will need. He’s also really good on D. Which stands for Donovan. Mitchell. The guy the Knicks almost traded for, if you haven’t heard.
Who scares you most on the Cleveland roster for this series?
Stacy: It might be a boring answer, but Mitchell is close to an unstoppable scorer capable of winning a game by himself. The Knicks can do all the things on defense I outlined above, and yet Mitchell’s shot making is capable of nullifying even perfect execution. He’s also an underrated passer, and while his defense still isn’t perfect, his strength and wingspan means you can’t just bully-ball him if he switches onto a bigger player. Brunson and Randle have played like All-Stars all year, but with all due respect to them, Mitchell is the best player in this series.
Miranda: Mobley, because of his combination of talent and youth. Every year, someone treats the playoffs like their debutante ball. Mobley coming out now could be enough to send the Knicks home jilted.
Prez: What Stacy said.
Shwin: What Stacy said, too.
Alex: Just to be different, I’ll say Garland. But I kinda buy it, too. With all the focus on Mitchell and the poetic matchup with the team he could’ve been with, Garland might find himself drawing the Knicks’ B or C defender on the perimeter and get more chances to show out.
Collin: I see all my colleagues have forgotten Ricky Rubio’s 37-point slaughter of the team back in November of 2021. Not I. The North remembers.
Give your best unbiased series prediction.
Stacy Patton: If Randle was at full strength, I’d be tempted to pick the Knicks in seven or perhaps even six. As elite as the Cavaliers are on defense, the Knicks have a versatile group of ball handlers who can attack the Cavs in many different ways, and some talented rebounders to punish them on the glass. And for all the hand-wringing about “the Knicks still need a star,” they have a bonafide closer in Brunson. This is not a team that’s going to wilt in the fourth quarter. They can beat you in so many ways, and like a vintage Tom Thibodeau, they are an absolute pain in the ass to play against. They get physical and play hard on both ends. We should not underestimate the impact that has over the course of a seven-game series, especially against a talented but inexperienced Cavs team.
But at the same time, this Cavs team has played like a true contender for most of the season, with a second-in-the-NBA net rating that indicates they may be under-seeded at No. 4. When they are locked in on defense and Garland and Mitchell are firing, they’d be tough for ANYONE to beat in a seven-game series, even Milwaukee or Boston. Randle’s injury just throws another wrench in this, as the Knicks would have to resort to heavy Toppin minutes or small ball with Hart at the 4. The Knicks have been effective for long stretches with both of these looks (and Obi finished the season on a tear), but doing it for entire games or having to rely on them heavily if Randle is not at full strength is not ideal.
With both teams so evenly matched, an injury to even an important role player can tilt the margins, let alone an All-Star like Randle. Even at full strength, as much as I like how the Knicks’ matchup with Cleveland, I respect the Cavs’ body of work too much to pick against them, and would take them in seven. If Randle is hurt to start/for multiple games of the series, I’d go Cavs in six. Here’s to hoping I’m wrong!
Miranda: The Madison Square Garden crowd will NOT aim profanity at Mitchell, no matter how much he’s killing the Knicks.
Prez: if Randle misses Game 1 but plays healthy after, Knicks in seven. If Randle’s healthy from the jump, Knicks in five. I think this is a TERRIBLE matchup for Cleveland. The Knicks’ biggest strength – rebounding and turning rebounds into points – is their biggest flaw. How often does that happen?
Shwin: If Randle is ready to go at full tilt Game 2 and beyond, Knicks in six. If he’s struggling or out throughout the series, Cavs in six.
Sam: I think Randle is ready by Game 2 or 3, depending on how Game 1 goes (though he might even be back for Game 1). If so, I see the Knicks in six or seven.
Alex: The Knicks had the fifth-best road record in the NBA this year (24-17, just two games off the No. 1 seed Bucks), and have one of the most disruptive home court advantages in sports. If they take one of the first two games in Cleveland, things could be looking up. Knicks in six.
Collin: I’ve got Knicks in six. Which I regretfully remember picking in 2021. But then again, that’s before Julius Randle discovered meditation. Knicks in six.
