The Strickland 2024 Atlantic Divison preview
This year’s Knicks season could be shaped by how they fare against their division rivals. We consulted an expert on each Atlantic team to take their temperature heading into 2023-24.
The 2023-24 New York Knicks enter a new season with a noticeable abundance of something in their step. Is it spring? Doubtful, for no team has ever emerged from a Tom Thibodeau-led training camp claiming they feel “springy.” There’s something new there, though. Is it hope?
That can happen after your best season in a decade. But before we succumb to dreams of conference finals and superstar trades, best to get a sense of the local landscape. The Knicks may be fairly similar from last year to this, but the Atlantic Division is a roiling cascade of activity. What are New York’s closest rivals expecting next season – of themselves and the Knicks? To find out, we called in the big guns.
Keith Smith covered the Boston Celtics for years at CelticsBlog; currently he’s a contributor at Spotrac and co-hosts the Front Office Show podcast. Chelsea Leite is the editor-in-chief of RaptorsHQ. Lucas Kaplan writes about the other NYC team (no, not the Liberty) for NetsDaily. Unfortunately something came up that prevented our 76ers person from joining in, but every crisis is an opportunity, so I took the Sixers questions. Thanks, and enjoy!
Nic Claxton's ceiling
Lucas Kaplan: Some quick napkin math: he was 2nd in the NBA in blocks (total and per game) last season while being the ridiculous switch-defender we all know and love, allowing just 0.79 PPP in isolation. Tax him for not being the defensive rebounding anchor in drop that a Steven Adams or Brook Lopez is, sure, but he still excels in any defensive coverage. What does all that make him? A top-5 defender? Top-10, at worst?
Claxton also led the league shooting 70.8% last season, a hugely capable rim-roller that is skilled enough to do far more than that.
I think Clax is near his ceiling already, though he should continue to make improvements to that hub-like offensive game, to the point where his team can feel confident feeding him the ball vs. switches, something the Nets have already started to explore. He’ll still occasionally jump for blocks when he should be boarding, and the 54% free-throw conversion rate is tough.
Yet, I think I just gave a pretty honest assessment of his game – to me, that screams ‘top 50 player in the NBA.’ You could, and I often do, argue for higher. So I’ll say his ceiling is around the top 25-30 range. Is that Nets bias? I don’t think so; they’re not that good. But Nic Claxton is.
Toronto’s point guard situation in light of Fred Van Vleet’s departure
Chelsea Leite: It's still not 100% sure that Dennis Schröder will end up being the long-term starting point guard. I could see Darko giving Gary Trent Jr. a chance if he keeps playing as well as he has in the preseason. There is also been talk of getting Scottie Barnes up to speed as more of a facilitator. So I don't think there is pressure from the fans, but just a sense of wanting to know who will be "that guy." From what I've seen so far, Schröder seems to be flexible but has also been stepping into a veteran leadership role off the court as well. I think in terms of on-court leaders, Pascal Siakam is your guy. O.G. Anunoby seems to be stepping up as well. It's still so new too, so we will have to keep an eye on the dynamics as the season progresses too.
New Raptors coach Darko Rajaković
CL: They are completely overhauling the offence and integrating a new system this year . . . similar to European-style basketball. Lots of ball movement, screens, pick and rolls, etc. There is a heavy emphasis from the coaching staff on staying away from too much isolation basketball and a "going back to basics" approach happening. I also think Darko is REALLY trying to put an emphasis on team culture and community, communication, and just overall work environment.
Non-cynical reasons to watch the 76ers this year
MM: Did you know there’s a YouTube channel devoted entirely to watching a hydraulic press smush things? There is! I imagine the appeal touches on something very human, the ol’ irresistible-force-meets-immovable-object deal. This is essentially what’s happening now in Philadelphia, between the detached Daryl Morey and the hilariously human James Harden. If you’re like most people outside the particulars, you’re already worn down from months of speculation and wealthy men’s gripes. Luckily for Sixer fans, it’s a new age in the City of Brotherly Love: the age of positivity.
The Eagles, defending Super Bowl finalists, are tied for the NFL’s best record at 6-1, behind a quarterback most fans actually seem to trust. The Phillies are a win away from their second straight World Series; even more stunning, their season may have been saved by the fans going out of their way to cheer highly-paid but struggling should-be star shortstop Trea Turner. The Flyers . . . well, they’re the exception, having one just one playoff round in 11 years. Then again, the Flyers are a sinister organization, a bag full of meanies and a pox on society. They deserve worse.
But in keeping with the general positivity around Philadelphia’s teams, they still employ the NBA MVP in Joel Embiid. And the chance to watch Tyrese Maxey blossom while keeping a smile on his face all the while may be enough to keep 76ers fans enjoying themselves. For a while.
OAKAAKUYOAK Dennis Smith Jr.
LK: It’s early, but those around the Nets have raved about DSJ’s leadership and spirit, which makes sense for the role he currently occupies: a defense-first pest whose job it is to guard backup guards 94 feet, then get out and run, a point of emphasis for Brooklyn. With the Nets aiming to play more drop defense, largely to quell their rebounding issues, DSJ is going to check into games to fight over screens and give quite a few of his six fouls. Just be a dawg, really.
The Nets are going to need to insulate Smith Jr. in shooting-heavy lineups; I mentioned that’s not a strength of his earlier, so his minutes might get squeezed based on the opponent. He can make a nice pocket pass in pick-and-roll when given the chance, but again, most opponents will dare him to shoot. In sum: He has to destroy the opponent’s offense more than his own.
* From the outside looking in, Jayson Tatum seems pretty perfect. What is his perception among Celtics fans? Is there any more pressure on him this year than the past few? What, if anything new, might the club be looking for from him in 2023-24?
Keith Smith: Rational Celtics fans love him. They know he's not perfect, but they've seen his growth and know how good he is. The irrational or casual fans think he should average 35 PPG and a triple-double, and anything less isn't good enough. That comes with the territory of playing in Boston, I suppose.
There is definitely more pressure on him. The fans and the organization expect the Celtics to be in the Finals. They've built a team that is definitely capable of that. And Tatum is the guy they need to lead them there.
We already talked about getting more leadership from Tatum. On the court, Boston wants him to continue to improve as a playmaker for others. He's taken major strides. He's going to be asked to get on the glass a little more this year too. He's putting a lot on himself to improve his already great defense. One understated thing: He needs to shoot it better, especially on off-the-dribble threes. That's fallen off a bit the last couple of seasons. He needs to get back up to the level we know he's capable of.
* Scottie Barnes is infamous among some Knicks fans for telling Quentin Grimes "You are not 'him'" in a game last year. Is Barnes "him" for Toronto? What is the franchise looking for from the third-year wing? Is he their most important player going forward?
CL: In some ways he's "him" and in other ways he is on his way to being "him." He definitely has captured the hearts of fans; now he just needs to continue improving into the number one option I think the Raptors want him to eventually become. He's next up for this franchise. They are fully committed to making him their cornerstone piece for the future. So now I think it's up to him to make that leap and grow into the role he's being given. I fully believe he will get there based on the glimpses of potential we've seen from him, but this is huge year for his development.
* After the Kevin Durant trade, Mikal Bridges showed he can do a lot in a leading role. What are the Nets looking to learn about Bridges this season?
LK: I think the Nets would like to see Bridges create easier shots for himself and others as a ball-handler – he subsisted on a really tough diet of mid-range pull-ups after the deadline last year, and the Nets put up a 103.6 ORTG in Bridges/No Dinwiddie minutes.
Which is fine. I mean, Bridges was just growing into a secondary scoring role – like, a real secondary scoring role – in Phoenix prior to the KD trade. The 27 PPG on near 50/40/90 shooting looks appetizing, yes, but I think the Nets are looking for a healthier way to get Bridges those numbers this season.
With the return of Ben Simmons and a more cohesive offensive scheme, given a real training camp and whatnot, I think the Nets are looking to see if Bridges can operate as more of a refined play-finisher. In short, quality over quantity, whether that means more pull-up threes, shots at the rim, or creating easier looks for others. Of course, it’s on his coaching staff and teammates to help him out, and, just looking over the roster, the Nets will often need Bridges to take over in the last five minutes of the game, anyway.
A healthier role should improve Bridges’ defense as well, which slipped hard in Brooklyn, even by his own admission: “I definitely wasn't playing how I wanted to play on the other end, defensively, when I got here."
* Et tu, Process?
MM: A long time ago, the Sixers drafted a player who’d be named league MVP, a six-time All-Star. They couldn’t keep him happy, so they traded him and stunk for a while. A few years later, they drafted another player who’d be named MVP, a seven-time All-Star. They couldn’t keep him happy, so they traded him and stunk for a while. More than a few years later, they drafted another played who’d be named MVP, another six-time (and counting) All-Star. You see where this is headed.
Or is it? By the end of the 1992 season, Charles Barkley had made it clear he wanted out ASAP. The 76ers shipped him about as far away as they could, to Phoenix. Around Christmas of 2006, Allen Iverson wanted out ASAP. The 76ers shipped him pretty far west, to Denver. Neither trade brought back anything of consequence. These were instances where the player got what they wanted and the team got the equivalent of store credit to a joint going out of business.
The prevailing theory is that James Harden will never again play for Philadelphia, meaning they’ll be forced to trade him away and then, exposed as non-contenders, Embiid will have to go, too. But maybe not. First of all – acknowledging the Harden situation has yet to go DEFCON 1 – Embiid, unlike the prior Philly icons, has not voiced that he wants out. Even if Harden is traded and the return package isn’t a ready-made contender mix, the next time Embiid requests a trade will be his first. Plus there’s been talk the Sixers could look to turn Harden into a three-team deal that sends him to L.A., picks and potential to Toronto and Pascal Siakam to Philly. An Embiid/Siakam/Maxey-led team is worth your eyeballs, if not the nine extra playoff wins the Sixers are looking for.
And what if Embiid doesn’t wanna go? He has two guaranteed years left on his deal plus a player option for $59 million in 2026-27, when he’s 32. The Sixers could potentially rebuild on the fly around their big man and pretty much anything they imagine – Embiid is the only Sixer with a guaranteed deal beyond this season. Even if he does ask out, would the Sixers engage a team in their own division, like the Knicks? Or do they go the route of Sir Charles and The Answer and mail The Process as far west as they can?
* The Celtics' current big 3, as far as bigs, consists of Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet. Is that enough to compete for a title? What player(s) nearer the end of the rotation might make a name for themselves in a bigger role for Boston?
KS: I'm going to give this a big "We'll see!", because it's a very open question. If reasonably healthy, and that's a big if, those three guys should be enough, Kornet is a fine regular season guy. He can give you 15-20 minutes and hold his own. When the playoffs roll around, that role will likely shrink anyway. I think we're all curious to see if Horford eventually goes to the bench, which would solve a lot of the backup big issues behind Porzingis. I think what is more likely is that both start, one gets a quick hook and they rarely play much together beyond the first five minutes or so of each half.
Oshae Brissett is going to get a shot as a smaller four. The team likes Neemias Queta, who is on a two-way deal. He's raw, but there's potential there. The real answer is the extra big might not be on the roster yet. Boston has a $6.2 million TPE, and my guess is that it will be used to try to add another big at some point.
* Who are the young Nets fans of other teams may not know much about now who could make a name for themselves by season's end?
LK: Assuming third-year Nets Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe are familiar-ish names by this point, and both seem primed for more consistent roles this season, at least out of the gates, we’re down to slim pickings. I’ll go with the positionally-defiant ex-Trail Blazer that hardcore Portland fans were devastated to lose this summer in Trendon Watford.
On a roster that will often be a tad small, light on ball-handling, and light on shooting, Watford is 6’9” with a nice handle and a workable 3-point jumper (33.3% on 102 career attempts.) Plus, the primary ball-handling options ahead of him are Spencer Dinwiddie (solid), Dennis Smith Jr. (can’t shoot), and Ben Simmons (Ben Simmons), so he should get an opportunity somewhere down the line.
There’s a reason Blazer die-hards loved him last year: he’s funky as hell. Watford cuts with a passion, has nice vision, and loves to pivot into a really nice floater game around the basket. During pre-season, he was Brooklyn’s point-guard whenever he was on the court.
* Marcus Smart is in Memphis. Joe Mazzulla is a second-year coach. Do the Celtics currently have a "leader"? Do they need one?
KS: Boston has leaders, but they are more of the quiet leader types. Al Horford has been around forever. He's not going to yell and scream, but he'll pull a guy aside and talk to him when necessary. When he does speak up to the entire team, everyone listens. Jrue Holiday will eventually become a leader, when he gets more ingrained in the team. He's a lot like Horford too, in that he'll do it in less in-your-face ways.
Finally, an understated part of the Marcus Smart trade was to force Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to take on more of the vocal leadership role. Both will speak up, but we haven't seen them do a lot of the visible leading that fans are used to from Smart. Only time will tell how that plays out.
* For much of the past 10 years, the Nets have fallen pretty cleanly into one camp or another: rebuilding or contending. What do you think the organization's hopes are for this season? What's their best-case result?
LK: This season, boringly, is about avoiding the worst-case results. Losing Nic Claxton for nothing in free agency, losing so many games that waiting for the next phase becomes untenable…I guess, pissing off Ben Simmons beyond recourse? This season is about accumulating a full season of data on the team’s core pieces while moving closer to 2025-2026, the year that Ben Simmons’ max contract comes off the books while incoming picks from Philadelphia, Dallas, and Phoenix are still coming down the pike.
That’s the year I keep repeating (though Simmons is an easier-to-move expiring next year, should the plans accelerate) which doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence because oh boy, can a whole host of things go wrong in two years, but Brooklyn is set up pretty well for the long-term. The difference between them and say, the Thunder or the Magic is that there’s not a ton to get really excited about in the meantime.
This season is about creating that fun, primarily for fans, but also for the core guys like Cam Johnson and Mikal Bridges, who I’m sure don’t want to go from playing in a Finals to being stuck in a holding pattern as they approach 30. Yet, if they can win 40 games and raise their national star on the playoff stage while, hopefully, enjoying life in Brooklyn, life won’t seem too bad. I think that’s Brooklyn’s goal for this season: convincing fans, players, and stars that may be peeking in, “Hey, it’s not that bad here!”
* Do you think Pascal Siakam will be a Raptor by the end of the season?
CL: Man, I hope so. This team needs to commit to him, he's their best player by far. If you refuse to go into a full rebuild, which has been the stance of the organization since the infamous Tamps season, then they need to go all in with Siakam. If they let him go in free agency, it would be a huge L for this front office, and honestly I think it would be the nail in the coffin in regards to the fan bases' trust in their vision. Masai Ujiri does not like the trade deadline either, so I really don't expect much from him there either.
* Is there any team in the division you can see competing for first place with the Celtics? Outside of Milwaukee, are there any other Eastern teams you consider a threat to Boston?
KS: Not in the division. I think the Knicks are the second-best team in the division (I promise I'm not pandering!), but there's a pretty good gap there. Philadelphia is a mess, and who knows what they'll become. Brooklyn has talent, but they are down in Play-In Tournament range. And then you have Toronto, who I think is headed for a complete disaster season, followed by huge changes to their roster this coming summer.
In the playoffs, it's a bit of a different beast. Miami will be there, because they always are. Milwaukee is going to be tough, for sure. I can't see anyone else in the East becoming a big threat this year, because I see both New York and Cleveland as still a year away, and Philadelphia is such a question mark.
* Why does it make perfect sense for James Harden to bring about the end of the Process-era 76ers?
MM: Because the Process was always capitalist code-talk for “minimize humanity as much as you can get away with,” and in that one sense Harden represents the best of our species. He absolutely will not be anything less than the fullness that he occupies.
Think of all the losses, all the think pieces, all the nights prospective Sixer fans – young or old, established or potential – didn’t bother tuning in because for more than 1,500 days in a row, they couldn’t be bothered. Call it an “investment” if you like, but it always made more sense in fever dreams than reality. Imagine winning a million dollars playing the lotto, then turning around and spending that million on a million scratch-offs. In a purely hypothetical sense, that might make sense. But if you ever actually did that, your friends would worry. Rightfully.
The Process gave the 76ers an excuse to not try, all in the name of – ironically – collecting as many chances as possible to be human. Which they hoarded. And yet, while they hit the jackpot with Embiid, did that hit override alllll the misses? They traded away a 22-year-old All-Star point guard in Jrue Holiday for the sixth pick: Nerlens Noel, a center. A year later they drafted Embiid third, a center who’d miss two full seasons recovering from foot injuries. A year later they drafted Jahlil Okafor third, a center who was out of the league by 25. A year later they drafted Ben Simmons, a 6-foot-10 professional basketball player who can’t shoot. A year later they traded the third overall pick to a division rival plus a future first-round pick to draft Markelle Fultz, a point guard meant to fill the hole created years ago when the Sixers shipped off Holiday. Fultz played all of 33 games with the Sixers. A year later, Philadelphia drafted Mikal Bridges, a hometown kid and Villanova alum whose mother worked for the organization. They traded him in a deal headlined by Zhaire Smith, who lasted 13 games with the Sixers before falling out of the NBA.
But while the 76ers did have more success the past decade than the 10 years prior, it all ended up pretty . . . pedestrian. They never won a title. Never reached the Finals. Never reached the conference finals. They won a bunch of regular-season games and are a second-round staple. You don’t have to piss away half a decade to hit that height.
If you do decide to devote a sizable chunk of your history to an approach that flattens all the dimensionality of life into line items on a balance sheet, however, be advised against betting it all on a man more likely to wear a fat suit to fake his way out of town than to shoot a midrange jumper. Daryl Morey is formulas and accounting wizardry. James Harden is strippers, sweat and a lifestyle with no concern for foods high in “the good fat.” Harden is insistent on his humanity. The Sixers began the Process disregarding that at every turn. Now it’s an obstacle they can’t escape.
* What do you think of the Knicks heading into this season?
CL: All I can think about is that lawsuit haha. On the court, I think they could continue to be an exciting team to see grow. It was fun to watch them in the playoffs last season and I think it's a fanbase that really gets rowdy and competitive when the team is doing well so that's great. I'm excited to see the growth of RJ Barrett, as a biased Canadian. I think FIBA was a great experience for the development of him as a leader and I hope he has a great season.
LK: The penthouse version of the Nets: awaiting their next move, but in no rush, give or take another ten wins. The Knicks are semi-contenders with viable paths to contention, but it’s not really about that yet for them. They’re set up to land a star, which I’d argue the Nets are too – perhaps BKN’s window is a bit further down the line – but in the meantime, the Knicks can/should win 45 games and a playoff series this season.
The playoff series is a tougher ask, because who can predict opponent luck, but yeah, the Knicks will be an annoying-ass team this regular season, one that plays hard, and plays their starters a lot of minutes. Then we got Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo off the bench? You guys are insufferable. The floor-slappers of the NBA.
In all seriousness, to me, it seems like the Knicks are firmly good, and will rack up wins this season: Neither the 2nd-best rebound-rate and the fifth-lowest turnover-rate should fall too much, so the possession battle is locked up. Jalen Brunson is awesome and will create good-look after good-look for himself and others in crunch time, and has great synergy with one of the most underrated players in the league in Immanuel Quickley – that duo was +12.1 in 1906 possessions last season, per Cleaning the Glass. Julius Randle will hit an infuriating stepback jumper from behind the backboard on the right baseline to send the Nets to the 9-seed in March. Let’s pray I’m not still doing this by the time the Knicks/Nets bidding war for Joel Embiid comes around.
KS: I think New York will be the third- or fourth-best team in the Eastern Conference in the regular season. Them and Cleveland are about on par with each other. If Miami took the regular season seriously, I'd put them up there, but I'm not sure what they'll be. Same with Philadelphia, but for very different reasons.
But the Knicks are kind of hitting the point in this group's arc where we can feel confident in a good regular season. It's about the playoffs. They took a big step forward in beating up the Cavs, but then really didn't have much for Miami. I think the defense can, and will be a little better. On the flip side, I think the offense was a touch over their heads. Those two could easily flip, in terms of where New York ranked, and they'd still be a very good team. Essentially, I see the Knicks as a good playoff team, but a tier or two behind the title contenders.
