One down, three to go: the staff ponder the upcoming series against Indiana

Following their six-game series win over the Philadelphia 76ers, the New York Knicks host the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern conference semifinals starting Monday. Are the Pacers the feisty up-and-comers that squeaked past the injury-hit Milwaukee Bucks? Will the Knicks play up or down to the challenge after their first-round series from hell? We discuss all that and more. 

One word to describe your outlook on the Knicks after their series win over the 76ers?

Drew Steele: Zen.

FrankBarrett119: Content.

Joe Flynn: Punch-drunk. (The hyphen is a cop-out)

Luca (@KNICKSTAPE__): Confident.

Shwinnypooh: Proud.

Alex Wolfe: Unflappable.

Sam: Relieved. 

Stacy Patton: VINDICATiON!

Collin: Cautiously optimistic (Ed. note I used no words, so Collin borrowed mine to use two. The lad’s got spunk.)

Matthew Miranda:

What trends do you think could transfer over from the last series to this one? 

Miranda: It’s virtually impossible to imagine a whinier team/fanbase than the Sixers last round. If Nick Nurse were alone in a gym and missed a jumper he’d call a foul on himself, because whenever something goes wrong someone’s to blame, and that someone is always someone else. I’ve dated people like Nick Nurse. It’s exhausting. 

Drew: Indiana entered the postseason 28th in rebounding, while the three players this postseason with the most offensive rebounds are Josh Hart, Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein. Controlling the boards becomes more important as the playoffs progress, especially getting those second- and third-shot opportunities on offense.

Joe: This series feels like it’ll take on a much different tone than the Sixers series, but one negative trend that I worry about is Hart freestyling too much on defense, especially in transition. He really needs to focus better against a team like Indiana.

Luca: To add to Joe’s point, the Knicks need to do a much better job in transition defensively this series. The Sixers’ 11th-ranked transition offense gave New York trouble; the Pacers’, ranked fourth, is a much bigger task. Tyrese Haliburton will be looking to create easy shots for the shooters surrounding him. The Knick guards must make it a point to get back on defense and make it more difficult for the Pacers’ high-powered offense to get into its flow.

Shwinnypooh: The Knicks have been the slowest-paced team in the league all season, and that's as much about them intentionally slowing things down as it is extending possessions because of their offensive rebounding prowess. That showed up in spades against Philadelphia and I expect it to show up against Indiana – and it needs to, in order to slow down a Pacers team at its best when they can get into an up-tempo game.

Alex: I could, unfortunately, see the Knicks getting into some early holes again, hopefully none of which will be too deep to get out of. The Pacers love to run and that can mean points early and often. They led the league in scoring and were second in points per 100 possessions. That said, they were a bottom-seven defense in points per 100 (the Sixers were 11th). Hopefully things are easier for the Knicks in the early going and they’re able to control the pace of the game as a result.

FrankBarrett119: That’s easy: offensive rebounding. The Knicks got a preposterous 37% of available offensive rebounds in round one. Myles Turner, Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin are going to have their hands full.

Sam: Jalen Brunson continuing to get what he wants. Damian Lillard on practically one leg was able to do as he pleased before running out of gas in the second half of those first couple of games in Milwaukee. Brunson had the task of taking on the length of Nicholas Batum & Kelly Oubre and figured it out by game 3. I don’t see anyone on Indiana similarly challenging Brunson, so I expect his high-scoring efforts to continue. 

Stacy: The Knicks faced a poor defensive rebounding team with a dangerous, hyper-speed transition scorer in Tyrese Maxey. They were still able to punish Philly on the glass. Indiana is a terrific transition team but also poor at defensive rebounding – as we saw last year with Cleveland and this year with Philadelphia, that’s a no-no against the Knicks.  

Collin: I think this has the potential to be a big OG Anunoby series, offensively. He scored 15+ points in the final four games against Philadelphia, only the second time he’s done so in a uniform colored blue and orange. His jumper (and elbow) look solid. I’d like to see him give it to Pascal Siakam as much as takes it away. 

Who do you see as the Knicks’ X-factor this series?

Drew: Game 6 Donte DiVincenzo needs to make more appearances this series. When his shot is working, it alleviates just enough pressure off of Brunson to keep the defense honest. 

Joe: I picked Hartenstein last round and he disappointed for the most part, but I’ll double down like Michael Jordan at an Atlantic City casino in the early 1990s. Can iHart keep the Knicks dominating the offensive glass while throttling the high-octane Pacers in the paint? I love Mitch, but I doubt he’s up to the task in his current state of health.

Luca: If my first round X-factor hadn’t gone down with an ankle injury, I would’ve doubled down on Bojan Bogdanović (who did hit some huge shots before he went down). Instead I’ll go with a roundabout answer – the eighth man. The Knicks need to extend the bench after all the wear and tear the seven-man rotation (particularly the starters) went through against the Sixers. If the eighth man is Precious Achiuwa, we’ll need him to provide the defensive versatility and offensive rebounding we’ve come accustomed to seeing from him when he’s unlocked. If the eighth man is Alec Burks . . . well, I really hope the eighth man isn’t Alec Burks.

Shwinnypooh: This is an Isiah Hartenstein series. He's the Knicks' best option at center, able to impact the game on the offensive glass, get up and down the floor and execute the type of defensive coverages in space that will be necessary to curtail Haliburton in pick-and-rolls.

Alex: Anunoby. Siakam was the star for the Pacers in the first round and probably the biggest reason they took out the Bucks (other than the conspicuously absent Giannis, of course). The Sixers lacked a matchup truly suited to OG’s skillset as one of the best defenders on Earth. We saw him kinda struggle against Maxey and provide some occasionally game-busting defense on Joel Embiid, but otherwise there wasn’t really a picture-perfect matchup for him. As a jumbo wing, Siakam is. There’s no matchup data to back this up. since they haven’t lined up across from one another since both were traded by the Raptors, but since joining the Knicks in 2019 Julius Randle – a fairly similar player to Siakam – shot a not-exactly-robust 17-of-47 when defended by Anunoby.

FrankBarrett119: Tom Thibodeau is always the X-factor in a playoff series. The Knicks are a better than 2-to-1 betting favorite for a reason: they’re the better team with the higher ceiling. But the Pacers are well-coached and will throw different looks at them. How the Knicks take that punch and adjust could determine the series.

Stacy: Deuce McBride. The Knicks are very thin and depth is a strength for the Pacers.  The extent to which Deuce can continue to shoot at a high level, offer some shot creation and defend will go a long way – particularly in the always precarious non-Brunson minutes, but also just in terms of getting precious (no pun intended) minutes of rest for Brunson, Hart and DiVincenzo.   

Sam: DiVincenzo was brutal last round and the Knicks were still able to pull through. Despite his struggles, he did come through in the biggest moments of the series. Going deeper into the playoffs you’re going to need guys to step up, and we’re going to need to see more of the Donte we saw the final three months of the season who averaged 20.2 points a game and broke the Knicks’ single-season record for threes made. While it is fun to see Brunson go for almost 50 a night, it’s even more fun seeing guys like Donte get going as well. 

Collin: I’m going to roll with Mr. McBride as well. Brunson is able to be schemed for somewhat, as the 76ers showed us in round one. An X-factor to me is that which cannot be predicted going as well as it does. No team has looked ready when McBride’s shots are falling. His defense will play a pivotal role too.

DiVincenzo came up big in Game 6 with his defense on Maxey. Can he do the same against Haliburton?

Drew: Covering Haliburton is going to have to be a group effort. The Knicks have to always get back on defense to prevent any sort of transition offense. I’d expect to see a good amount of pick-and-pop actions with Haliburton and Turner, which would more than likely make OG the weakside help rim protector. Both Robinson and Hartenstein are going to have to defend in space more than they did against Embiid. 

Joe: I have no idea what Thibs is drawing up for Haliburton. I’d prefer it if they give Donte the assignment to start; however, I expect a big series from him.

Luca: When Donte finally drew the Maxey matchup in Game 6, he shut him down more than any defender had in the series, taking advantage of the young star’s current shortcomings as the player running the entire offense. I expect Donte to make life similarly difficult for Haliburton, disrupting his pick-and-roll opportunities, getting into passing lanes and mucking up Indiana’s sets. 

Alex: When the starters are in, yeah, but I think McBride is going to get a lot of time on Hali as well. He made a huge impact in the first series, and much like he was often tasked with being the primary defender on Maxey I anticipate he’s gonna get pretty well-acquainted with Haliburton, and probably close some games defending him.

FrankBarrett119: Absolutely. It’s not even about who can guard Haliburton better, it’s about what’s best for the team. The Knicks’ defense is at its best when Anunoby’s defensive impact is maximized: not chasing guards around the perimeter, but either guarding wings or playing free safety and helping to cover mistakes the Pacers may force.

Stacy: Guarding Haliburton plays to Donte’s strength (good lateal quickness, strength, smarts). It also allows Hart to be off-ball. where I think he’s most effective disrupting passing lanes and crashing the glass. I also don’t think we’ll see much of OG on Haliburton when Siakam is in the game, as I don’t think the Knicks have too many other great options to defend Spicy P besides Anunoby (and as he alluded to, he has familiarity with Siakam’s game from their time in Toronto).  

Collin: Donte for Game 1 and test the waters. Deuce behind him. My prediction is he continues to shoot as well I would under the same circumstances. 

Sam: I would keep Donte at the point of attack on Haliburton and have Deuce do the same when he’s in. I like having Hart and Anunoby as free safeties off any action relating to him. Also it’s best to keep OG on someone like Siakam.

The Knicks will lose this series if . . .

Drew: Brunson is not HIM.

Joe: They come out lacking focus and lose Game 1 for the third straight conference semis (yes, I count 2013 against this squad, even if that makes no sense), or the Pacers wear them down with their depth over the course of a long series.

Luca: The Knicks let a weak rebounding team outplay them on the glass.

Shwinnypooh: If Tyson Chandler infects this year’s team with whatever malady turned him into a punching bag for Roy Hibbert in 2013.

Alex: If the Pacers are allowed to run at will and tire out an already thin rotation.

FrankBarrett119: There’s some outlier-level 3-point variance – otherwise they shouldn’t lose this series.

Stacy Patton: They suffer any more injuries, in particular to a non-center. 

Collin: Brunson regresses. The team can barely form shots elsewhere when he’s on. I don’t trust them to improve their “next man up” capabilities if he averages 20 points a game this series. 

Sam: They allow Indiana to play to their strengths.

Miranda: The refs call the game tighter than they did against Philadelphia.

Will it hurt worse to see Obi Toppin play well or poorly against the Knicks?

Drew: Who?

Joe: You mean Jacob’s brother?

Luca: I don’t have any hard feelings for Obi and never understood why people do. I’m happy that he found a home in Indiana. That being said, I would love to see what madness would unfold on Twitter if he plays poorly and the Knicks advance. 

Shwinnypooh: I genuinely do not care. It was never happening for him in New York and at the end of the day, whether he plays well or stinks up the joint, the Knicks should have more than enough to win the series.

Alex: I’m beyond caring at this point. Happy for him that he found a place to get playing time and maybe get paid, though.

FrankBarrett119: The only time it hurts me is when he’s playing well next to Siakam. Every time I see that it’s another reminder that we were never given a real chance to see what he and Randle could have done together.

Stacy: It will hurt if he plays well and they win – like any opponent. I want the Knicks to win. Period. The other stuff is secondary. 

Collin: It will feel good to see Obi play well. I don’t think his play carries so much weight that it could lead to the Knicks losing. So I’m comfortable here.

Sam: Like Stacy said, it only hurts if he plays well in a contribution to winning, which he did against the Bucks. Happy for him finding a place that seems where he’ll stick. 

What’s your prediction for the series?

Drew: Too many of the “experts” are picking the Knicks to win and that makes me very weary. I’ll never go reverse jinx, though, so Knicks in four. BUST OUT THE BROOMS, BABY!

Joe: I despise the Pacers and I know Haliburton will pull a Trae Young if he wins this series and make beating the Knicks his entire personality for years to come. However, to beat this Knicks team over seven games you’ll have to break their will. The Pacers are talented. They’re deep. But are they willing to crawl through the depths of hell and back? I’ll give them two games for hot 3-point shooting, but wager they aren’t ready for this dogfight. Knicks in six.

Luca: I’m not very high on the Pacers, but I still think their run-and gun-offense could take some time for the Knicks to adjust to. However, I think the more battle-tested team with the best player on the floor will prevail. Knicks in six.

Shwinnypooh: The Knicks split the first two games as they catch a second wind after a grueling physical and emotional opening round. I expect them to get stronger as the series goes on and ultimately win in six.

Alex: Knicks in five. I think the lights are gonna be a little too bright for Hali at the World’s Most Famous, and the Pacers’ Round 1 stud, Siakam. is gonna get his lunch eaten by former teammate Anunoby.

Sam: Knicks in six.

FrankBarrett119: Knicks in five.

Stacy: Knicks in six.

Collin: Knicks in five. And the one Pacers’ win comes at MSG – because the stupid basketball gods demand it. 

Miranda: Here’s three: Obi will hit a backbreaking late-game three at some point; we’ll never talk this much about Indiana again while failing to mention Andrew Nembhard; and whoever wins does so in seven.