The Strickland Knicks/76ers first-round roundtable
Everything you ever wanted to know about Knicks/Sixers but were afraid to ask
In the dying hours before your emotions are hijacked for the rest of this spring by Knicks playoff basketball, The Strickland writing staff offer up a tasty dim sum of some dim-to-divine opining.
Thoughts on the Sixers as the Knicks’ first-round opponent?
Drew Steele: Philadelphia needed a miracle game from Nic Batum — yes, that Nic Batum, drafted back in 2008 — to scrape by a mediocre Heat team with an allegedly injured Jimmy Butler. Joel Embiid looks like The Penguin waddling around out there, so unless his knee magically recovers the Sixers are gonna be in for a rough series.
Joe Flynn: The Sixers are one of the few Eastern Conference teams I don’t hate. Of course, I said that about the Hawks in 2021, so . . . As a group, they’re an eclectic mix. They have some assholes (Kyle Lowry, Kelly Oubre), some foul grifters (Tyrese Maxey, Embiid) and some non-dogs (Tobias Harris). With such a mixed bag, it’s hard to know what you’ll get from game to game.
Zach Blatter: While his health and conditioning will always be a question mark, Embiid is one of the few players in the East who can pose matchup nightmares for the Knicks and look like the best player on the floor for any given five-minute stretch. Even with his scoring far from its peak powers, Embiid is still capable of leveraging defensive attention to create open looks for his teammates, as we saw in their lone play-in game vs. Miami.
I would’ve preferred to see a revenge series against the now-depleted Heat, but this Knicks team never runs from a challenge. New York is the more talented group, they’ll have a home-court advantage, a few extra days of rest and the ultimate defensive trump card in OG Anunoby. Am I thrilled to see Philly in round one? No. Am I excited? Hell yes.
Alex Wolfe: Honestly feeling pretty good. As a tall-by-normal-standards dude with bad knees, trust me: bad knees don’t just magically get better with a couple days rest. Embiid’s 7-foot-2 knees aren’t gonna magically get better with three days rest, certainly not playing 35+ minutes multiple games against the Knicks, whose Isaiah Hartenstein-Mitchell Robinson duo will make the MVP’s life hell. And that’s just on the offensive end.
If Embiid approaches defense like he did against the Heat Tuesday, the Hartenstein/Jalen Brunson pick-and-roll is gonna clean up. All this talk about Embiid not being 100% also completely leaves aside that the Knicks waxed them at full strength early on in the Anunoby era. Knicks in . . . wait. I’ll save that for a later question.
Luca (@KNICKSTAPE__): Watching live and seeing Maxey miss shot after shot as the first option while Embiid hobbled up and down the floor made me confident in winning this matchup. I think the Knicks have the capability to throw pesky point-of-attack defenders like Deuce McBride and Donte DiVincenzo at Maxey, while having a very strong center rotation of IHart, Mitch, and Precious Achiuwa to play physically against Embiid – if they’re allowed to.
Combine that with the most impactful player on offense in the series in Brunson and the most impactful on defense in OG and I’m feeling pretty confident. That’s not to say the Sixers will roll over, as they have familiar Knicks’ foe Lowry, the always pesky Oubre and a streaky-hot shooter and underrated defender in Buddy Hield. All in all, I think the Knicks come out on top thanks to Jalen’s offensive firepower surrounded by elite shooters and defenders.
Sam (@fbl_sam): I feel pretty good about this matchup, especially as the Knicks are seen as underdogs. I don’t trust Embiid in the postseason and he’s already nursing a meniscus injury he tweaked in a late regular-season game and was nursing against Miami. If you want to compete with a gritty & physical Knicks team, your body needs to be up to the task; I expect or at least I hope the Knicks will target him a bunch in pick and roll actions to get him moving. I’m also confident the Knicks have the most equipped big man rotation and OG to deal with Embiid and his foul-drawing follies.
Stacy Patton: Even at 80%, Embiid presents tough problems for any defense. He’s a three-level scorer built like a young Shaquille O’Neal. But I don’t know that there’s a team better equipped to defend him than the Knicks. There’s a reason the Knicks won by 36 the only time these two teams faced each other with Embiid and Anunoby both healthy. Yes, Randle was healthy then, too, but more pertinent is how the Knicks were able to use OG as a rover, helping on both Embiid and Maxey to wreak havoc on the Sixers’ offense. Of course, that wouldn’t be possible if Hartenstein couldn’t provide such a strong foundation. He can come out and challenged Embiid on the perimeter, yet retains the quickness, strength and length to contest and stay with him on drives. Robinson and Achiuwa provide solid depth – being able to say that about Mitch is quite a luxury, huh?
My concerns include Hartenstein getting into foul trouble (a risk he seems quite mindful of). Mitch plays good defense on Embiid, but often has to concede jumpers. Maybe with Embiid’s injury he can play more aggressively, but Robinson’s still working his way back from ankle surgery and Precious, as well as he’s played, simply lacks the size. Another worry: Maxey has caused problems for the Knicks’ perimeter defenders. He’s too quick for Brunson and possibly even DiVincenzo. It will be interesting to see if the Knicks put Anunoby on him or give Josh Hart that task and let Anunoby rove and help. My guess is the latter.
At the end of the day, the Knicks held the Sixers under 100 every time they played this season and won the season series 3-1. I think this is the best team in the East besides the Knicks and the Celtics, so I would have preferred another matchup from that standpoint. But that doesn’t mean I don’t think the Knicks are the better team, and I think they have what it takes to win this series. So I feel pretty good.
Collin Loring: Bon appétit, Monsieur Brunson.
Which Knick will be the X-factor in the series?
Drew: Hartenstein. If he can make Embiid move around and use his knee, especially when defending in space, the Knicks should win without too much trouble.
Joe: I don’t think he’s quite an X-factor, so I’ll phrase it this way: Hartenstein might end up being the best player in this series – not in terms of raw numbers, but in on-court impact. This moment has been building ever since he ascended to the starting lineup. His incredible run of play was halted for a while by an Achilles issue, but the Knicks handled his minutes build-up masterfully in recent months; he’s already said he’s good for 30-plus in the playoffs. Just like Mitch in the first-round last season, Hartenstein is ready for his postseason breakout.
Zach: Hart’s shooting. We know he’ll bring his trademark rebounding, defense, finishing and overall intensity, leaving shooting as his only true wild card. The Knicks don’t have many players that defenses can ignore and dare to shoot at the price of increased defensive attention on Brunson, and Hart’s going to be the first they try.
His month-by-month three-point shooting numbers are hysterical: 30% on 43 attempts in November, up to 37% on 35 in December, back down to 24% on 41 in January. Hart ticked back up to 35% in February, but dealt with a wrist issue throughout March and cratered at 26% on 58 attempts. Hopefully his wrist is doing better, because Hart will be dared to take threes in this series. I hope they go in.
Alex: Hart and then Hartenstein, but in the interest of highlighting someone different I’ll say my third choice, McBride. He’s going to draw the task of covering Maxey often in this series and I have zero doubts he’s going to make Maxey’s life a living hell. The big thing that will determine if he can be on the court for 15 minutes or 30 minutes in any given game, though, will be the 3-point shooting. Deuce hit 41% of his threes this year, and that efficiency didn’t take a hit at all when he had to take way more attempts as the season wore on. But we saw Quentin Grimes light it up last season only to struggle to hit his threes in the playoffs. Will Deuce face the same fate, or cement himself as a legit playoff contributor?
Luca: Since Alex went with my original X-factor in Deuce, I’ll point to a different guy with something to prove – Bojan Bogdanović. Since the OG trade, Bogey has underperformed, leaving fans underwhelmed with mostly inconsistent shooting, poor defense and the lack of bench pop seemingly promised from his Detroit stint.
Post-trade his numbers dropped across the board, from 20/3.5/2.5 in 33 minutes per game with the Pistons to 10/2.5/1 in just 19 minutes with the Knicks. The 3-point shooting has taken a hit, too, going from 41.5% on almost eight attempts per game with Detroit to a still-respectable 37% with New York, albeit while dealing with a left wrist injury. With the level of play getting better and better leading into the playoffs and the amount of attention Brunson will attract from Philly’s defense, Bogey will need to step up as both a reliable scoring option off the bench to give Jalen some rest and a knockdown shooter who’ll make Philly second-guess paying Brunson so much attention. We’ve seen some good games from Bogdanović sprinkled in throughout the year (his most memorable being his 22 points and six made threes against the Sixers). The Knicks need him to have some more.
Sam: I agree with Alex on the Deuce point. I’ll stick with defense on this one: I believe in the two matchups when Deuce has been featured on Maxey, Maxey’s struggled. I bring this up because all I’ve heard leading up to this matchup is that the Knicks will have very little for Maxey. They don’t know about, Deuce do they? I also agree on the shooting being equally as important. We have seen far too many good regular-season shooters lay eggs when the Knicks need them most in the postseason. If Deuce can light it up like he did in February and March, the Knicks will be easily marching onto the second round.
Stacy: I’m going to go with Achiuwa. I think the Knicks can and should win the Brunson minutes handily. But can Precious hold up and give the Knicks a changeup at times? Can he continue to cause problems for Paul Reed, like we’ve seen previously? The truth is at some point, Hartenstein is going to be in foul trouble, and Mitch might be too, and/or struggling and/or dealing with Hack-a-Mitch. If Precious can defend, make good decisions and bring the energy he does in his unique combination of size and athleticism, I think it could really move the needle.
Collin: Hart averaged 14.3 rebounds against the 76ers this season. Ain’t no stopping Embiid like stopping him on the glass!
Speaking of which, how do the Knicks stop Embiid?
Drew: Make him move on offense and defense. You want him to be a jump shooter, but if he’s making all of his shots force him to drive and explode off that knee. I don’t think it’s going to hold up for an entire playoff series.
Joe: If the Knicks get the Embiid we saw in the play-in game – a lumbering, injured big who cashed a few threes and grabbed some boards over a small Heat team – they shouldn’t have much trouble.
Zach: This is in the same lane as what Doug said (great minds!), but try everything you can not to foul. Hartenstein spoke about Embiid during his post-practice media availability Thursday morning, mentioning Embiid “gets his little breaks” by getting to the free-throw line. The worst thing the Knicks can deal with is a semi-rested version of Embiid, so making him run up and down the floor with as few breaks as possible will be key to winning this series. Plus it would really suck if Hartenstein & Robinson get stuck in foul trouble and the Knicks need to defend Embiid with Achiuwa (or God forbid Jericho Sims), so let’s try avoiding that entirely.
Alex: Attack him when you’re on offense and try to get him to foul you if he’s going to play as far back as he did the other night in drop coverage. On defense, try to keep him stranded on the perimeter by taking advantage of his limited mobility right now. Get enough of a contest to bother his threes without fouling. If you turn Embiid into a jump shooter and can limit him getting inside and parading to the foul line, you win.
Luca: Make sure he’s very involved on the defensive end. Keep him in constant motion, making him switch and attacking him to take advantage of his hampered play. On offense, move him out towards the 3-point line toward the likes of OG and IHart, instead of close to the rim where he can do damage and draw fouls. If we keep him moving on the defensive end, he’ll have a lot less energy and ability with a bad leg to hoop and harm on the other end.
Stacy: Stay out of foul trouble while staying aggressive (easier said than done, I know). Hartenstein needs to take away the midrange jumpers within 16 feet, but Embiid is quick enough (at full health) to punish with the drive. That’s where OG comes in, as well as being able to confuse Embiid with where the help is coming from. A year’s worth of Knicks/Nuggets games are somewhat instructive.
The Nuggets won the last game, but the previous two (going back to last season) were Knick blowout wins. Jokić still got his 30 and 10 in both, but he also had 6 turnovers in both. In the second game, the Knicks did not have Robinson or Hartenstein, instead countering Jokić by sending help from unexpected places (Anunoby and Hart deserve a ton of credit for their timing and ability). Embiid is not the processor Jokić is out of double-teams; no one is. But if the Knicks can execute that against Jokić, they can do it against Embiid.
Collin: Play Hartenstein and Mitch and don’t play Sims.
After Embiid, what’s your biggest concern with the Sixers?
Drew: Maxey, because he’s the only other guy who can get his own shot. You can argue Hield, but I’ll leave that for one of my colleagues.
Joe: I worry more about random 3-point explosions from the Lowry/Hield/Oubre-types. That’s how the Heat burned the Knicks last season. But do Nick Nurse and the Sixers have that sort of pull with Satan?
Zach: Hield, I guess? This is somehow Hield’s first-ever playoff series, and it would suck if the career 40% 3-point shooter (and bonafide loser) was the reason the Knicks lost this series. Put a body on him and keep a body on him.
Alex: Basically what Joe said, if the geezers on Philly are somehow able to turn back the clock in unison. But their depth outside of Embiid and Maxey doesn’t even begin to scare me in their current forms, short of Lowry borrowing some Heat voodoo magic to bring to Philly.
Luca: I’m the most “worried” about the annoying but underrated Oubre. Per nba.com, In 17 minutes matched up with Brunson this year, Oubre held him to just 5-of-16 shooting from the field while forcing four turnovers. We know he has the capability to score in bunches; that, along with his pesky defense, could make him a threat in this series.
Sam: For me, it’s always the randoms getting hot. Like imagine Tobias Harris getting hot or even someone like Cam Payne hitting a couple of threes and getting some confidence. YUCK! Those are the shots that are absolute shotgun shells to the chest of any Knicks fan. Imagine Mike Breen’s voice reaching higher octaves as it happens. Yes, I just described your worst nightmare, and I’m sorry.
Stacy: Maxey. Donte and Brunson are quality defenders, but struggle with super-quick guards like Maxey – most teams do. If he gets hot and forces help, the Sixers have the shooters to make the Knicks pay. I also do think that while at this point I think Brunson is matchup-proof, they’ve had some success throwing length in the form of Kelly Oubre at him and helping aggressively. We need Hart to at least keep the help honest. If he shoots well and the Knicks can contain Maxey’s dribble penetration, I feel pretty confident.
Collin: The looming Hield-hits-seven-threes game is already giving me the cold sweats. Luckily, Deuce has had a hell of a season against him in one-on-one situations, holding Hield to 2-of-7 shooting in the regular season. Let him loose!
Finish this sentence: The Knicks will win this series if _______.
Drew: Jalen Brunson remains HIM.
Joe: Stephen A. Smith finally learns the name of the Knicks’ starting center.
Zach: If October 2023 - December 2023 Mitchell Robinson shows up.
Alex: They shoot over 36% from three for the series.
Luca: Thibs’ willingness to play three guards continues, the gameplan against Embiid prevails and Brunson continues his MVP-level of play.
Sam: Hit their threes. I’m tired of rock fights. Also let’s get weird and funky with some interesting lineups.
Stacy: Make the right passes, stay out of foul trouble, and don’t let the non-Embiid/Maxey guys beat you.
Collin: DiVincenzo remains the 3-point shooter we’ve seen all year.
The winner of this series will face the winner of the Bucks versus the Pacers. Who would you rather the Knicks play?
Drew: I don’t care, but I’m picking the Bucks because they’re the better team, Brunson owns them and I would rather defeat the better opponent to get to the conference finals than those scrubs who don’t play defense in flyover country.
Joe: If the Bucks win, you’d have to assume Giannis is back and playing pretty well. That’s scary. On the other hand, the Pacers are the team I would most enjoy beating/fear losing to.
Zach: The team that doesn’t have a two-time MVP, eight-time All-Star and one-time DPOY.
Alex: The Bucks, even if they have Giannis. Because Doc Rivers is a fraud.
Luca: My mindset since we clinched a top-six seed has remained the same: the Knicks are confident that they can match up with and come out on top against any team, so why shouldn’t I be? If I had to choose, I would say the Bucks. Despite that meaning Giannis and Dame are healthy and playing well, I trust OG’s and the Knicks’ defense to prevail and for Doc Rivers to lose the Bucks that series.
Sam: There’s just something so juicy about beating a Rivers-led team with a wack-ass version of Dame and all these aging vets – oh, and how could I forget, a Giannis who could be asking out anytime now. This could be their swan song and we can stomp it out. I’m all for the failure of Dame and Doc right now, so bring them to me. Also Brunson OWNS this matchup, and I like the way the Knicks matched up with Milwaukee in their most recent matchup, when the Bucks for once weren’t blessed by Baphomet with diabolical shooting powers.
Stacy: Assuming Giannis is out, obviously the Bucks. The Knicks handled them the last two times they matched up. Without very hot shooting from deep, they struggle. Like Embiid and Jokić, the Knicks have some good answers for Giannis (read: OG Anunoby). Without Giannis, I could see a sweep. If Giannis is healthy though, he’s still a bad man. I’m not scared of Tyrese Haliburton or Pascal Siakam to nearly the same extent, and the Buck defense is basically designed to say “Here, Jalen Brunson, hang 60 on us” (and I’m using the term “defense” generously). The game slows down in the playoffs and I trust the Knicks’ transition defense, which means the Pacers will have to play in the halfcourt a lot. I think that massively favors the Knicks. So if Giannis is healthy, I’ll take my chances against Indiana rather than the team led by a former MVP and Finals MVP.
Collin: I want to sweep the Pacers so badly. And this team is capable. Even without Julius.
Moment of truth: your prediction for this series?
Drew: My initial reaction/gut is Knicks in 6, but Philadelphia really didn’t look impressive against Miami. Embiid really is nowhere near even like 80% of himself, so the official pick is Knicks in 5.
Joe: Knicks in 6. Game 1 is crucial: the last three times the Knicks lost a playoff series (Pacers 2013, Hawks 2021, Heat 2023), they lost Game 1 at home (Ed. note: The Knicks have never won a playoff series in their entire history after losing Game 1 at home). If the Knicks really punch the Sixers in the mouth the first 2-3 games, I wonder if Embiid even makes it to the end of this series. I’d wager on some random bullshit costing New York a couple of games, but this Knicks team is too damn good and mentally tough to fall in the first round.
Zach: Knicks in 5. I’ll stop stealing Doug’s takes in our second-round roundtable.
Alex: Knicks in 6. Not quite willing to predict the gentleman’s sweep. But quite frankly I wouldn’t even be surprised by 4-0.
Luca: Embiid looks very beat up and the Knicks aren’t any less physical and imposing than Miami, so for that reason I feel confident the Knicks can win in 5.
Sam: Knicks in 6. I like rhymes. Also, the Knicks beating the Six-ers in 6 would be poetic to me.
Stacy: Knicks in 7. I think Embiid’s gonna be awesome, I think Maxey’s gonna be awesome, and I think we’ll annoyingly get a Oubre and/or Paul Reed game or two. But in a game 7 I trust Jalen Brunson more than anyone else in the series. So I think the Knicks take it on a night that causes mayhem in a fairly wide radius around 33rd and 7th.
Collin: Knicks in 5. Unless it’s not. Then Knicks in 6. But I can confidently say it will not be Knicks in 1, 2, 3, 4, or 7. Book it.
