The Strickland’s 2024 NBA Draft Profiles Part 2: Late 1st-rounders, a.k.a. where the Knicks’ picks kick it
The Knicks are in position to pick one or more players who could fill an immediate need. These are some of those.
Welcome back! The players in this group are generally mocked toward the end of the first round, with some variance. Big boards – premised more on personal opinion and less on projecting team habits and needs – vary even more. In short, these are the your-mileage-may-vary types in the 2024 draft class, one so variable prognosticators Prez (@_prezidente), Drew Munley (@drew_munley14) and Adam (@deucemcbrLde)’s predictions are as likely to end up a home run as a three-strike whiff.
Tyler Smith (Power forward, G-League Ignite)
Draft night age: 19.6
Height: 6 ft 11 in
Wingspan: 7 ft 1 in
Weight: 225 lbs
Prez’s Sales Pitch: Smith is a talented and dynamic shooter, not just for a big but for ANY prospect. He can attack mismatches, finish way above the rim, shows touch on floaters and moves his feet defensively. If he gets into an ecosystem where he can become well-versed in the little things, he’s already beyond his peers at the harder-to-teach skills.
Questions about their projection: He might not have any idea how to play professional defense as a rookie. And while he can shoot, if he’s playing the 4 is he versatile enough on offense to put it on the deck and attack closeouts? Can he handle stronger, quicker wings defensively, or will he be a tweener — tall but not particularly strong, quick or instinctual?
Important Stats:
16/5/1 on 57% true shooting (TS%)
37% on threes/46% on unguarded threes. Great for anyone; elite for someone his size.
43% on 2-point jumpers. More evidence his jumper is top-tier.
64% at the rim. Solid.
1.06 assist-to-turnover ratio. Not great. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
49% on layups/25% on runners. Both terrible numbers, likely due to being skinny and taking insanely tough touch shots.
Kevin McCullar (Small forward, Kansas)
Draft night age: 23.3
Height: 6 ft 7 in
Wingspan: 6 ft 9 in
Weight: 210 lbs
Drew’s Sales Pitch: One of the best defensive wings in the draft, especially on-ball. McCullar can be an elite point-of-attack (POA) defender; consistently blows up on/off ball screening or handoff actions. A very twitchy defender around the rim, he waits to react to his man to try to counter without fouling. In a pinch, he can create for himself in isolation and is an efficient strength-based driver. He’s also played different roles ranging from connector to main perimeter scorer, giving him some versatility.
Questions about their projection: McCullar could find minutes as a 3-and-D player if he can become a threat from three, but that’s a big “if,” one evident from his jumper’s mechanics. Can he become an effective scorer to complement his defensive game? His height is slightly lacking for where wings are trending. Will he have the athleticism to guard taller matchups?
Important Stats:
18/6/4 on 45/33/81 splits
Over one point per possession (PPP) in isolation/transition/cuts/spotting up
Allows only 0.35 points per shot (PPS) defending the midrange. Locks up.
52% on twos and 32.5% on threes his most recent year
4.4 defensive box plus/minus (DBPM) over five years. A crazy high number and sign of plus defense.
Johnny Furphy (Swingman, Kansas)
Draft night age: 19.6
Height: 6 ft 9 in
Wingspan: 6 ft 8 in
Weight: 200 lbs
Adam’s Sales Pitch: A supersized, uber-efficient, play-finishing wing, the Australian freshman was as surefire a safety net on offense as you can get while also providing defensive value. He has good feel and high motor on offense and is a savvy, willing cutter and relocator. Legitimately vertically explosive on both ends, skying for dunks and rebounds. Furphy’s feel carries over on defense, where he rarely makes costly mistakes and is sound on and off the ball — especially off.
Questions about their projection: His burst with the ball isn’t great, his handle is rudimentary and he struggles to maintain advantages when defenders try to run him off the line. His below-average lateral speed caps his defensive ceiling and his footwork can get choppy. He’s not mobile enough to consistently stick with primary ball handlers and will probably never be a true POA defender. Needs to add strength and fill out his frame to be effective guarding bigger wings.
Important Stats:
36% catch-and-shoot (C&S) 3P%. An O.K. number.
44% unguarded C&S 3P%. A great number.
Nine 3-point attempts per 100 possessions
74% shooting at the rim. Elite.
3.6% steals plus blocks rate
0.39 free throw rate (FTR). Very solid for a slasher.
82%/98% assisted at the rim and assisted threes. Doesn’t create his own buckets.
Kel’el Ware (Center, Indiana)
Draft night age: 20
Height: 7 ft 1 in
Wingspan: 7 ft 5 in
Weight: 225 lbs
Prez’s Sales Pitch: Ware has traditional big-man size plus a wingspan nearing 7-and-a-half feet. Uses both height and might to rebound and protect the rim, pairing length with agility, post-up moves and the occasional spot-up three. Though he’s only 20, the outlines of a Bucks-era Brook Lopez-type who can punish smaller bigs and wings and credibly space the floor are there for all to see.
Questions about their projection: While good at much, Ware isn’t great at anything. He didn’t dominate as much as you’d expect offensively, while the shot remains theoretical after three years. He won’t be able to camp out at the rim in the NBA; does he have the agility to defend pick-and-roll ball handlers up to 15-plus times a game as a starter?
Important Stats:
16/10/1.5/0.6/1.9 on 59/43/64 splits. Elite efficiency.
1.3 3-point attempts per game (3PA). More than most centers, but doesn’t scream confident shooter, either.
8.5 box plus/minus (BPM)
26 defensive rebound rate (DREB%). A great number.
7.3 block rate (BLK%) over two years
44% on C&S jumpers. A small sample, but obviously a great number for a big!
50% on runners
73% at the rim
Ajay Mitchell (Point guard, UC Santa Barbara)
Draft night age: 22
Height: 6 ft 5 in
Wingspan: 6 ft 6 in
Weight: 190 lbs
Prez’s Sales Pitch: 6-foot-5 with exceptional, vet-like footwork he uses racking up middies, floaters and free throws. Mitchell doesn’t take many threes but makes the ones he takes. Elite touch, with savvy passing. In an age where we see more and more skill/feel/stats prospects succeed, bet on Mitchell, who dominated in that manner despite regularly being the only scoring threat on his team. Two, three, four players regularly couldn’t stop him getting to his spots.
Questions about their projection: Mitchell has size, but not explosive athleticism. He’s not a speed demon, nor does he play above the rim often. On top of that, he absolutely needs to shoot more threes in the pros; assuming he can ratchet up the volume and keep the accuracy is dicey. He rarely played against strong competition in the NCAA, so how much stock do we put in his numbers?
Important Stats:
20/4/4 on 50/39/86 splits/61 TS%. Tremendous volume and efficiency.
0.47 FTR. A great number for a guard.
28.2 assist rate (AST%)/13.5 turnover rate (TOV%)
31 usage rate (USG%). Very high.
2.9 3PA. Very low.
65% at the rim
Two games vs. top-100 teams. Lowest among any NCAA player we’ll cover.
DaRon Holmes (Center, Dayton)
Draft night age: 21.8
Height: 6 ft 11 in
Wingspan: 7 ft 1 in
Weight: 220 lbs
Prez’s Sales Pitch: A statistical marvel of a center used as the ball handler in inverted pick-and-rolls, the shooter in pick-and-pops, face-ups, post-ups and rolls to the rim. His skillset for a big man is truly emblematic of modern basketball. Whichever team takes advantage of that could find themselves in possession of a former college Defensive Player of the Year who shot nearly 40% from deep last season and has the skill to drive on both opposing bigs and smaller mismatches.
Questions about their projection: All those center-dribbling possessions might be Mickey Mouse college experiments that fail in the NBA. He shot well on threes last year, but his shot is funky and the sample remains small. He remains undersized and lithe, likely to get bullied by some wings and many bigs.
Important Stats:
20.4/8.5/2.6/0.9/2.1 on 54/49/71 splits
63 TS%
12.3 BPM
7.2 BLK%
79 dunks
0.72 FTR
40% C&S 3P%
18.9 AST%, 12.1 TOV%
Jonathan Mogbo (Power forward, San Francisco)
Draft night age: 22.6
Height: 6 ft 7 in
Wingspan: 7 ft 2 in
Weight: 220 lbs
Prez’s Sales Pitch: Mogbo is an athletic marvel with an NBA body that only a few years ago was sub-6 feet. In college he was a point-center and dunk machine; in the NBA he’ll likely play the 4 and rely on his guard-like movement and face-up handle and explosion. Though he didn’t shoot jumpers, all he has to do is get proficient from the corner and you’ve got a super-charged, super-smart big wing connector. He understands the game, and learning to chuck and defend perimeter players is easy enough in the G-League — the payoff would be well worth it.
Questions about their projection: Mogbo is too small to play the 5 in the NBA — full stop. His projection requires two pretty gigantic “ifs”: if he goes from never shooting to shooting well, and if he can be a strong defender at the 4. Though he played there some in college, the NBA is a whole new ballgame: one night you’re the china shop to Julius Randle’s bull in the paint, the next you’re trying to catch Paul George or keep him in front of you on the perimeter.
Important Stats:
14/10/4/1.6/0.8
11.1 BPM. A great number.
25 AST%. Insanely high for a big man.
14.5%/29.3% OREB%/DREB%. Elite numbers.
3.2 steal rate (STL%)
3.5 BLK%
A final note: for the first time in The Strickland’s history, this year’s draft coverage will have a second home on Reddit at r/nyknicks. We started sharing profiles there last week, talking about the pros and cons of each prospect and whether they might be destined to rock the orange and blue. Go check them out and let us know what you think about these possible future Knickerbockers — here, there or on Twitter.
