The Strickland’s 2025 NBA draft lottery introduction & who the Knicks could pick
What are we even doing here?
Despite some inconsistencies, the 2025 Knicks are very good. They hit 40 wins before they hit 20 losses. They’re on pace for 52 wins, which would be their most in a dozen years. Despite a few hiccups and stumbles, including the loss of El Capitán for most if not all of the season’s final month, they have a pretty firm grip on a top-three seed in the East.
So why is Prez thinking about the 2025 NBA draft?
I think you know the answer. LOVE OF THE GAME. It’s an addiction. It began as a curiosity stemming from Knicks’ foibles and high picks derived from said foibles, but it’s not something you turn off. On top of that, can you really assume Brock Aller is gonna sit tight and do nothing on draft night? Last year we thought the draft would be an afterthought and came out of it with not one, not two, not three, but four rookies.
Have they played much? No! Do I care? No! It’s still interesting. Ariel Hukporti WILL be a factor on the floor in the next three years, I promise you. The others will more likely factor in trades than anything, but still . . . you never know.
So where do the Knicks sit? As of now, they own the 55th pick; another second-rounder was forfeited as punishment for “tampering” when they acquired Jalen Brunson. Will they settle for just that? Again, highly unlikely. The Knicks have to be one of the top-3 teams the last few years in terms of sheer volume of draft day trades. So I’d expect them to add at least one pick, maybe two, if only to nab another cheap rookie salary for cap purposes.
With that prologue, let’s touch on how this class is actually shaping up. Below is a current estimation of where the top players rank – not quite reflecting my own big board, but instead reflecting the rough consensus I've seen from “professional” draft analysts and Draft Twitter buddies alike.
Cooper Flagg, PF, Duke
Throughout last year’s cycle we heard much about how mediocre last year’s class was in relation to the upcoming class, headlined by the Maine man, Cooper Flagg. Questions about his absolute offensive ceiling – can he be the best scorer on a top NBA team? – have obscured how insanely dominant he’s been on both ends of the court despite being only 17 years old for much of the season. Flagg sprained his ankle in the ACC Tournament but is expected to play when Duke begins their NCAA Tournament.
Last year’s class was indeed weak at the top, but the 2025 class is not some bountiful crop of instant franchise players. There are a very small number of high-probability cornerstones at the top. That includes Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, the Rutgers boys, and maybe a few more players. And who those other players would be depends on who you ask.
Dylan Harper, PG, Rutgers
A 6-foot-6, well-built freshman lead guard who generates easy paint touches and impressive finishes while creating separation. Dominated the early part of the season before a bout of mononucleosis derailed him.
Ace Bailey, jumbo wing, Rutgers
A 6-foot-10 rail-thin, shoot-first, shoot-second, shoot-third sniper who can create space for his jumper in any situation. Surprisingly feisty on the boards. Still a ways from figuring out how to actually read defenses and offenses and think the game on the fly.
V.J. Edgecomb, SG, Baylor
Big-time athlete who bites off more than he can chew getting to the rim, but also generates boatloads of free throws and dunks for a guard as a result.
After beginning the season rocky from deep, caught fire midway through. Oh, he also locks up.
Khaman Maluach, C, Duke
Gigantic, bouncy, rim-running 5 with floor-spacing potential. Needs to learn how to pass and read the game, but as a defensive anchor and rim-runner his projection is straightforward. Despite — or because of? — the relative certainty of this archetype, it’s often underrated, explaining why Dereck Lively and Kel’el Ware’s draft stock fell in recent years, and why Maluach’s may, too.
Kasparas Jakučionis, PG, Illinois
A 6-foot-6 Lithuanian point guard who’s an incredible shotmaker from deep despite being shaky off the catch; also has an uncanny ability to draw fouls. The freshman is quite adept setting up teammates in the pick-and-roll; his entire game revolves around the threat of step-back threes.
Noa Essengue, jumbo wing, Ulm (Germany)
Gigantic, lanky French wing can reach the rim from halfcourt in a dribble or two. Comfortable with hesis and Eurosteps, making dunks foregone conclusions. Slides with guards. Shot is good, not great. Needs to fill out, but there’s a monster modern NBA wing in there.
After that group there’s a strong upper-middle class of tall, versatile players, plus a few point guard/initiator bets. There’s also a high number of impressive freshman-aged players, a far cry from last cycle when we were squinting to see stars in sophomores and upperclassmen who as freshman were clearly not lottery picks.
Collin Murray-Boyles, PF, South Carolina
Can a dominant, two-way, big-bodied sophomore power forward without a jumper be worth a lottery pick in 2025? We’ll soon find out.
Derik Queen, C, Maryland
How good does a dominant offensive center’s defense need to be for him to be a lottery pick? How good does a shaky rim-protecting center’s offense have to be? Can you have a 6-foot-10, 240-pound power forward?
Egor Demin, PG/wing, Kentucky
This 6-foot-9 Russian freshman alternates between primary initiator and connector guard. He’s shown flashes of shooting skill. Struggles imposing his will, creating separation and driving despite his prodigious size and passing ability. The idea is better than the reality at the moment.
Tre Johnson, SG/SF, Texas
A 6-foot-6 “real hooper” — full stop, no notes. Insane high-volume, high-accuracy jump-shooter. Mamba mentality shit. Can he do enough else to be worth a lottery pick? Does he need to?
Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma
A 6-foot-4 baby-faced 18-year-old downhill point guard with crazy handle who gets to his spots and draws fouls aplenty. Carries a 30% usage for one of the best teams in the country in a tough conference. Threes have not dropped (28%), but he’s great from the free throw line (85%).
Other lottery hopefuls:
Thomas Sorber, C, Georgetown
Super high-feel power forward/center. Well-rounded, with the potential to shoot and draw fouls in the league in addition to greasing the wheels for a good offense and a good defense.
Ben Saraf, PG, Ulm
Yet another 6-foot-6 point guard who runs the offense for a decent pro team despite only being 19. Pick-and-roll maestro who relies on going left a little too much and whose shot comes and goes, but gets to his spots regularly versus grown men despite that.
Kon Kneuppel, SF, Duke
A 6-foot-7 high-ranking recruit. Monster shooter. High-feel – not the most physically gifted, but absolutely competes. Sneaky good pick-and-roll ballhandler and operator.
Liam McNeely, SG/SF, UConn
Another wing sniper. A little less versatile on either end than his Duke counterpart, though also a little more athletic.
Miles Byrd, SG/SF, San Diego
Historic stock machine. Defensive wing is a willing gunner from deep (though not the most accurate). A bit shaky inside the arc despite being a sneaky-good ball-handler.
Asa Newell, PF/C, Georgia
Started as a rim-runner but has evolved. Makes up for being undersized with length and bounce, and shows some stretch potential every now and then. Role at Georgia is super simple, but he kills it.
Rasheer Fleming, PF, St Joseph’s
Giant two-way wing who can shoot, lock up, help at the rim and rebound. Doesn’t create much.
Noah Penda, F, Le Mans Sarthe Basket (France)
Big, strong forward with feel on both ends beyond his years. Shooting accuracy not there yet, but ability to put it on the deck, attack mismatches and secondary initiate make him a good big wing role player bet.
Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State
Hyper-efficient 6-foot-3 combo guard with a sweet lefty stroke. Knows his strengths, excels at reading the game and taking advantage of opponent mistakes. A dawg. Son of high-flyer Jason Richardson, but has a completely different game.
Honestly, this last section could go on for another 10 hoopers. There’s a ton of players who have a chance at breaking into the lottery. Who is a good 10th or 14th pick depends entirely on your draft philosophy and your team’s needs. This brings me to my final, Knicks-specific point.
The second round is always a crap shoot, but this year’s will likely have an abundance of lotto tickets: players who need a few things to break right for them to pop in the NBA. Despite that, for good front offices this might be like shooting fish in a barrel. The last few years have shown that the best scouting units can repeatedly cook in the second round. There is where hope lies for us.
Tankathon.com has New York taking Tomislav Ivišić, the freshman center from Illinois. He has a box plus/minus (BPM) over 10, shoots almost 10 threes per 100 at a 35% clip and is a bruising rebounder. He’s an easy-first rounder on my board.
ESPN’s pick is . . . wait for it . . . another Toppin! Texas Tech’s JT Toppin (no relation), a powerful 19-year-old dynamo of a power forward who can defend up and down, scores more frequently than probably anyone in this class and has a busted 3-ball (32% this season, 33% for his college career).
No Ceilings has the Knicks taking Joshua Jefferson, a junior and do-it-all 6-foot-7 wing with a BPM of 11 whose transfer to Iowa changed that program’s outlook completely. He doesn’t have a standout NBA skill on offense, but the production is there.
The 57th pick on Swish Theory’s latest mock doesn’t account for team. They have Alex Condon there, a 6-foot-11 Aussie sophomore who is an advanced metrics god for Florida. He’s a first-rounder for me, currently. Florida posts him up a ton, though he probably won’t post at all in the pros. And he shoots a little screwball from three. But he has undeniable gifts, including some Isaiah Hartenstein-level hub passing.
There will be hoopers available this year, if Leon Rose so chooses. It’s a deep, role-player draft, anywhere from 25th to 55th.
Prez’s Big Board
Tier 1: Generational
Nobody
Tier 2: Instant franchise player (Don't call me)
Cooper Flagg
Tier 3: Instant franchise player (I'll listen for 5 minutes)
Dylan Harper
Tier 4: High-ceiling possible stars (rotation mainstays more likely)
Ace Bailey
V.J. Edgecomb
Noa Essengue
Khaman Maluach
Jeremiah Fears
Tre Johnson
Derek Queen
Collin Murray Boyles
Ben Saraf
Danny Wolf
Tier 5: Great 3rd-6th Man bets (Maybe one of ‘em becomes something more)
Rasheer Fleming
Jase Richardson
Noah Penda
Thomas Sorber
Adou Thiero
Asa Newell
Kon Kneuppel
Liam McNeeley
Myles Byrd
Egor Demin
Tier 6: Starter upside (rotational bench more likely)
Isaiah Evans
Nique Clifford
Jaxson Robinson
Alex Condon
Carter Bryant
Yaxel Lendebourg
Tomislav Ivišić
Flory Bidunga
