Obi Toppin has unexpectedly been dropped into a very precarious development situation behind Julius Randle’s emergence. How has Obi fared on both sides of the ball? Could he actually be further along on defense than on offense?

Nobody saw this Julius Randle coming — the offense-carrying, midrange maestro-ing, 3-ball sniper-ing Julius Randle. Helpless opponents across the league have been consistently victimized by Randle’s ascent.  

So has Obi Toppin. The eighth rookie selected in this year’s draft ranks 33rd amongst rookies in minutes, at just over 12 a game.  

A request: Please don’t blame New York’s front office for drafting a player now forced to play behind its first-time All-Star. As already stated, nobody, including the Knicks themselves, saw this Julius Randle coming. New York was understandably in asset collection mode after last year’s disaster of a season, and the braintrust selected the player they deemed the greatest talent asset. If any criticism is to be levied upon the selection of Toppin, it should be directed at talent evaluation, not team fit.  

Ultimately, Randle’s evolution should be viewed as a miracle drug with just one negative side effect, and the Knicks’ job is to figure out how to best manage the pain. To do that, they must answer the following questions:  

1) What do they have with Obi on both sides of the ball?  

2) Can Obi and Julius be effective together on the floor?  

By evaluating the film and the numbers on Obi, we can address the first question, which should lead us to an answer to the second.  

O-bi 

Let’s start on offense, where scouts universally agreed Obi would make his greatest impact. The difficulty in assessing Toppin’s offensive skill and potential lies in the fact that he has played the majority of his minutes with rim-running centers in Nerlens Noel and Mitchell Robinson. This has kept him away from the rim — where he should theoretically be doing most of his damage — and essentially rendered him a stretch 4. That said, we have seen glimpses of what Obi could become in a more befitting system.  

As advertised, Obi can jump high and jump fast upon receipt of the rock anywhere in vicinity of the rim, and that rare explosiveness is what inspired the ambitious Amar’e Stoudemire comparisons in the first place.  

Considering his unique skill, Obi has gotten remarkably few opportunities to work as a primary screener and roller. For context, according to NBA Stats, Toppin functions as the roll man in just 12.1% of his team’s possessions, in stark contrast with his frontcourt mates Nerlens Noel (32.4%, sixth-highest in the league), Taj Gibson (29.5%), and Mitchell Robinson (23.7%). He’s taking just 0.5 field goal attempts as a roller per game, rendering the sample size far too small to even assess his efficiency on those looks. Coach Thibodeau prefers to employ his non-shooting centers as rollers because they provide no spacing away from the primary action, but do present vertical threats. While that logic might explain the frequency with which Noel and Robinson serve as screeners, it does not sufficiently explain why Gibson, who presents at least some threat as a spacer and very little as a lob threat, has taken those opportunities away from Toppin.  

New York has occasionally drawn up creative plays to unleash Toppin’s roll game, and when given those chances, he has rewarded his coaches by displaying good hands and vertical explosion to the rim.  

Here, the Knicks used Kevin Knox as a decoy screener before transitioning directly into a Quickley/Toppin pick and roll, with Noel occupying the potential help in the dunker spot (i.e. on the baseline five or so feet from the rim.) 

This beautiful play design stationed Obi as the initial screener for Quickley, with Noel following by setting a back screen on Obi’s man, freeing him up for the lob. New York would be well served to empower its rookie by replacing two or three run-of-the-mill 1/5 (point guard/center) screen-and-rolls a game with creative actions like these.   

In other rare instances, Toppin has taken matters into his own hands. When New York ball handlers get off the ball early enough after the initial action (too rare an occurrence), Toppin receives the ball at the top of the key and sprints directly into a dribble hand-off on the weak side, then rolls hard to the cup.  

Knicks coaches should encourage this type of quick side-to-side ball movement, and Toppin would benefit greatly from the increased activity.   

Certainly, when Obi plays with Gibson, moving Taj to the corner or utilizing him as the “popper” on stagger screens are simple ways to get Obi rolling, literally and figuratively. But even placing the non-shooting centers in the dunker spot could provide the requisite space for Obi to make things happen on the roll (think Draymond Green rolling with Kevon Looney or James Wiseman rim-adjacent), including as a passer, a role in which Obi has shown surprising skill and vision.  

That’s right — despite his meager 12 total assists this season, Obi has shown with limited touches that he can become an impactful passer.  

Here, Obi shows advanced spatial awareness. Watch as he points to Gibson in the dunker spot before even receiving the ball. He knows where he’s going with it prior to the catch. This play (against a zone) approximates how it could potentially look if Obi were ever put in position to catch the ball on the short roll with passing options.  

Obi has also demonstrated the ability to make intelligent reads and pinpoint passes when the pace quickens.  

Ah, yes, transition — that rarefied atmosphere in which Obi can take off the helmet and breathe in some sweet oxygen. I’ve written previously about the Knicks’ damaging lack of pace, including how it has specifically shackled Toppin. He runs with alarming speed after defensive rebounds or forced turnovers; and even when he knows he won’t get rewarded with the pass, his rim runs in transition open up trailing shooters for threes. Alas, even with some recent marginal improvement, the Knicks under Thibs will realistically never play fast, which further inhibits Obi’s ability to make a real offensive impact.

Thus, before jumping to any conclusions based on Obi’s struggles this season, it behooves us to constantly consider the fact that he has not been put in positions to utilize arguably his two greatest potential offensive strengths — rolling to the rim and playing in transition.  

In lieu of those opportunities, Obi has instead been tasked with creating offense primarily as a floor spacer, and occasionally in the post. On the shooting front, the results have been at best uneven — and at worst, ugly. Toppin is shooting just 30% from three on mostly wide-open attempts, but his splits from behind the arc are truly head-scratching. Per Cleaning the Glass, Toppin is shooting a putrid 3/19 from the corners (16%), while on the generally lower percentage non-corner threes, he is shooting a very encouraging 10/25 (40%).  

Confounding as those numbers are, the degree to which Obi occasionally misses is far more discouraging than the amount he misses. Obi takes a long time to load, has a low release point for a big man, and launches the ball way up in the air, shooting mechanics that have produced some downright woeful bricks and airballs. 

(The one against Minnesota was so bad, NBA.com has it registered as a missed “jump bank shot” — Obi wishes.)  

All that said, 40% above the break is a very encouraging number, 30% overall is not a total train wreck, and you would expect the percentage from the corners to increase at least marginally. Additionally, Obi hasn’t even experienced a full training camp to work with the coaching staff on his shooting mechanics, which should certainly occur this coming offseason. As such, open threes are absolutely a worthwhile and important shot for Obi to continue to take and improve upon if he wants to become a truly dynamic offensive force, and credit goes to the coaching staff for encouraging him to take these shots despite the uneven results. If Toppin can eventually become a 35-plus percent 3-point shooter, that raises his ceiling considerably.  

Obi’s work in the post has been even less encouraging than his outside shooting. The stats are unkind, though the sample size remains very small — Toppin is shooting just 40% on post-ups, per NBA Stats, and the Knicks are scoring just .83 points per possession when they feature Toppin in the post, a frankly terrible number. The film isn’t much kinder, though there have been some encouraging signs. 

Obi learned quickly that he can not overpower NBA defenders on linear moves and drives as he did to those he faced in the Atlantic 10.

Toppin even struggles to back down NBA guards, inhibited by a very high center of gravity.  

Consequently, the face-up game — as opposed to the back-to-the-basket approach — may present a better option for Toppin down low, where he can rely on his quickness to get by defenders instead of his strength. However, a loose handle — especially with his weak hand — has too often negated those potential advantages.  

Obi should really focus on tightening that handle this coming offseason, and developing dribble combinations that can unlock his quickness and open up avenues to the rim that are currently blocked off.  

In the meantime, Obi has shown occasional flashes of multidirectional counters down low — specifically the spin-back right — that can compensate for his current lack of strength and suspect handle. 

Toppin’s teammates, too often stagnant when the ball enters the post, can further help Obi by increasing their off-ball movement around his post play, allowing Obi to utilize his aforementioned passing instincts.   

So, can Obi play with Julius Randle offensively? Unquestionably. In fact, considering Randle’s newfound 3-point range, a Randle/Toppin frontcourt pairing would allow Obi to play in the paint far more often as a screener and roller. Furthermore, if Obi can improve his outside shooting, he could supply actual, desperately-needed space for Randle’s post-ups and bulldozing drives to the rack. Assuming continued growth for the rookie, that pairing could be extremely potent offensively. The question comes on the other end of the floor. 

obaDiah 

Considering the prognosis on Obi’s defensive potential coming into the draft (see Kanter, Enes), Knicks fans have to be pleasantly surprised by what they’ve seen so far. 

Because Toppin plays almost exclusively against opposing second units, which frequently skew small, he is often forced to guard opposing wings. Despite the questions about his lateral mobility, he has held up remarkably well in those one-on-one matchups. He understands his limitations, and doesn’t try to stonewall drives high up the floor. Instead, he maintains a good stance, retreats while remaining square to his man, then uses his athleticism to absorb the drive.  

Obi’s lateral limitations have only really bedeviled him on closeouts to the perimeter.  

Here, Obi, who is rightfully extremely focused on providing help on Damian Lillard, gets a tad too high in his gap help position (between the ball and his man one pass away). He leaves too much ground to recover, which allows Robert Covington a direct line to the rim.  

On this play, Obi is positioned as the backside help, which means he has to cover both the pass to the corner or to the wing from the baseline driver. But his positioning is slightly awry and he loses Kent Bazemore in the corner, the more direct pass.  

Toppin’s lack of defensive agility demands that his positioning be pitch-perfect — when it isn’t, he is too slow to recover. The good news is, these are the types of reads and rotations that should improve with NBA reps and continued film work.  

When called upon, Toppin has looked sturdy guarding the rare NBA post behemoth, an important attribute when considering his ability to play with Randle. 

As a rim protector in help scenarios, as long as Obi makes the correct rotation and places himself in the proper help position, he has been extremely effective using his athleticism to deter shots at the rim; even, dare I say it, elite.  

According to NBA Stats, opponents are shooting a miniscule 43.8% when Toppin is defending at the rim (measured as any shot within six feet), which ranks seventh amongst all players who defend at least one such shot per game (placing him among such players as Draymond Green, Jakob Poeltl, Myles Turner, and Jarrett Allen). While that number is almost surely unsustainable with increased volume, it does confirm that Obi has excelled in those situations. Furthermore, per Cleaning the Glass, Toppin is blocking 1.5% of opponent shot attempts, which ranks in the 80th percentile of NBA bigs.  These are extremely encouraging numbers both in terms of Toppin’s personal development, as well as for the potential Randle/Toppin pairing, since Randle provides little rim protection.  

However, like any NBA rookie big man, Obi sometimes struggles to rotate quickly and correctly into that proper help position. 

Here, Obi gets confused by the whirring machine that is the Utah offense, and stays glued to his spot in the corner instead of rotating and offering the necessary help at the rim. You can see RJ Barrett pointing to the paint as Rudy Gobert begins his roll, beckoning Toppin to meet Gobert at the rim.    

This time, Obi loses focus and completely misses the help rotation at the rim on the baseline drive.  

But here’s the best part of that clip, and the reason Knicks fans should expect Obi to correct these mistakes quickly: The Knicks are up 30 on Boston with under five minutes to go, and yet assistant coach Kenny Payne points directly at Obi as he trots back up the floor, letting him know in no uncertain terms that he had blown the help rotation. Knicks fans have to feel like Obi’s defensive development is in the best possible hands. He has already shown more skills on that end than expected, and his coaches will demand continued progress and accountability.  

Injuries to Robinson and Gibson have forced Thibs to venture into the small-ball wilderness in New York’s recent games against Detroit and San Antonio, and he has played Obi at center next to Randle for significant stretches of both games. Despite some predictable missed rotations at an unfamiliar position, Toppin has generally answered the call as the last line of defense. He has protected the rim using impressive verticality and intensity...

...and even demonstrated the ability to hard hedge and recover, then step up in help and take the charge.  

So can Toppin play with Randle on the defensive end? The early signs are surprisingly encouraging. If Toppin can sustain his excellent rim protection and continues to develop his defensive anticipation, positioning, and awareness, then the viability of that pairing becomes far more realistic.

With every passing magnificent performance, Julius Randle inks another line on his long-term extension, and Obi Toppin’s long-term fit becomes increasingly unclear. The only foreseeable way Toppin factors into the Knicks’ long-term future alongside Randle is if he can play significant minutes at the center position. Otherwise, unless New York surprisingly decides to move Randle, Obi is destined for many years of 12-minute performances.  

Now, Tom Thibodeau has no track record of playing heavy doses of small lineups. But if Toppin can prove that his rim protection is for real, then one could envision a scenario in which Obi plays 20-25 minutes a game at some point in the future. He would play all the non-Randle minutes, and play alongside Randle in spurts and in the right matchups; in that scenario, he can become an important ingredient to the Knicks’ future success. 

Of course, Toppin isn’t there yet. Not even close. His rookie season has undeniably been a struggle, and he will need to improve in basically every facet of the game to earn a spot in the Knicks’ future plans. That said, it would be extremely premature to write him off as a bust at this early stage. He has displayed some real NBA skills and made significant strides, despite unexpectedly being thrust into perhaps the worst possible situation — playing behind an All-Star in a system that forces him to play away from his strengths. 

Ultimately, developing Obi on both sides of the ball can only benefit the Knicks, whether his future is with the team, or he becomes an important trade piece that can yield a valuable return.