The process was there for the Knicks against the Thunder on New Year’s Eve, but in a season so far full of nights where shots just don’t fall, the shots didn’t fall for the Knicks, and the Thunder came away with a win.

A fitting end

After a turbulent beginning to the 2021-2022 New York Knicks basketball season, the Knicks went on the road and lost to the lowly Oklahoma City Thunder, 95-80, on New Year’s Eve. How did it happen? What does it mean? Let’s dive in.

A fast start

A common trend of this season has been painfully slow starts by our Knicks. How many times have we seen Tom Thibodeau angrily call timeout early in the first quarter, then trot out the same five starters after the commercial break? Last night we saw the same thing, only it was the other team doing it. 

Bolstered by ball movement and effort. The Knicks quickly went up 10-3. Obi Toppin, despite not attempting a shot, had his fingerprints all over this hot start. He was everywhere. Defensively, he was boxing out anyone he could find. Offensively, he was flying around looking to keep the offense rolling like a well-oiled machine. Many people were excited to see what the Knicks would look like without Julius Randle, and they did not disappoint. At least not in the first four minutes.

Reality bites

Unfortunately, that was as good as it got for the Knicks. There really isn’t very much to say about this catastrophe of a basketball game. It was like spending two hours watching someone scratch a chalkboard. Despite being unable to hit the ocean from a boat, the Knicks found themselves down only two points at halftime. At the time, I tweeted that to only be down two points was a compliment to the process and effort of the players. They were 5-24 from three at the half, on almost entirely good looks. With a little shooting luck they could’ve been up double digits. All they needed to do was stay the course and things would even themselves out.

And guess what, they did! The Knicks came out after the halftime break and looked like the same team they did in the first half. The ball was moving, and New York continued to create largely great looks. Yet, to the dismay of Knick fans, that’s not where the similarities ended. Because the Knicks continued to be unable to make anything. And each time they seemed to find a small amount of momentum, the Thunder hit some back-breaking shot. Whether it was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander banking in a 3-pointer, Ty Jerome hitting a step-back 25-footer, or Theo Maledon — who entered the game shooting a whopping 16% from the corner — knocking down a corner three, the Thunder always had an answer that seemed to highlight the disparity in shooting on this particular night.

There was a moment when it seemed like none of this would matter. A moment when, as we had seen in four of the last five games, the Knicks would overcome their poor play and find a way to beat a bad team. The Knicks scratched and clawed their way back from multiple 10-point deficits, and, with 10:32 left in the fourth quarter, an Immanuel Quickley 3-pointer cut the Thunder lead to 74-71. Three measly points. The next Knicks defensive possession was an absolute master class. For 24 seconds they flew around making every switch, help, and rotation possible. This wasn’t surprising — effort was not the problem last night as it has been in the past — but even on a night when the effort was mostly there, this possession stood out. With one second on the shot clock, the aforementioned Maledon threw up a desperation heave. Off the release, every Knick fan knew it was off. There were three Knicks under the basket ready to corral the rebound. Surely the Knicks would grab it, race down the court and score once again, right?

Wrong. Somehow, amidst a sea of Knicks defenders, point guard Ty Jerome found a way to get his hands on the rebound and reset the possession. He kicked it out to Aleksej Pokusevski, who’s shooting 22% from three on the season, and he hit a contested 25-footer. The Thunder did not look back, ending the game on a 21-9 run over the last 10 minutes of the fourth quarter. Nine freaking points.

A lesson in variance

Did you know there are people who go to casinos and study roulette tables? This may sound ridiculous to some of you who haven’t spent as much time in casinos as I have, but it’s true. Some folks will stand around, watch a roulette table quietly, and wait for a trend to emerge. If red hits a few times in a row they’ll jump on the table and bet red because it has the hot hand. 

I want to implore as many people reading this as possible not to be those people. There is no hot hand at a roulette table. And sometimes, even in a basketball game, there is no overarching lesson to take away. Sometimes it’s just bad luck. If both teams shot their average from three last night, the final score would have been 101-80 Knicks. No, that isn’t a typo. And that’s just the beginning, because it isn’t like the Thunder were shooting only open threes while the Knicks hoisted up ill-fated ones. The shot quality distribution was, at WORST, neutral. In fact, my (granted, biased) eye test told me that it was actually the Knicks who were producing the superior looks. There will be nights the shots don’t fall — last night was just one of those nights.

Julius Randle

Naturally, a Knicks fan base pent up with frustration about the season and perhaps a bit too much New Year’s Eve punch, was not short on hot takes immediately after the game ended. A small collection took the opportunity to gloat and bury their fellow Knicks fans. How dare anyone imply this team would be better without Julius Randle?

Let’s start with the ugly truth that some don’t seem to understand: even on a night the Knicks scored 80 points, they were better than they had been with Randle. In the Knicks’ last 11 games prior to last night, a stretch in which they were 5-6, the Knicks were -66 with Julius Randle on the floor, including an absolute stinker against a lowly Detroit Pistons team, playing without Cade Cunningham and a slew of other players, in which they were outscored by 27 in the 26 minutes with Randle on the court. If you can’t see the difference between how the Knicks played last night and how the Knicks have been playing with Randle on the court this season, I don’t know how to help you.

But, there is a far more important point in play here. Every reasonable Knicks fan understands that, despite his struggles through 35 games this season, this Knicks team’s ceiling starts and ends with Randle. He is their most important player. And, even if he hasn’t performed like it thus far, he is their best player, which is why the tone of the discourse surrounding him is always frustrating to me. Why do we continue to frame wanting to give Obi Toppin more minutes as a zero sum transaction? We know Tom Thibodeau is hesitant, but are we as fans sure they can’t play together? How can we watch a game last night and think that this season’s Julius Randle would have helped? He would have created even more open threes? He would have stopped the Thunder from shooting multiple standard deviations above their 3-point expectation? Stop it.

This stretch of games is going to be a frustrating one, especially if Kemba Walker remains out AND Thibodeau continues to refuse to insert Immanuel Quickley in the starting lineup. But it also could be an important stretch, because it is a time to identify what the Knicks have outside of Randle. Can Quickley or RJ Barrett, who I somehow am just now mentioning for the first time despite scoring 26 points on 50% shooting, serve as lead initiators? How impactful can rookies Deuce McBride or Quentin Grimes be? Sorting these matters out as Randle finds his health and, hopefully, his magic from last season, could very well be what turns this season around.

Happy New Year!

I won’t sugarcoat it: 2021 sucked. A lot. It was a very difficult year for many to navigate as we adjusted to life with Covid. But, as Butters Stotch once said on South Park, the only way we can recognize the bad times is if we once experienced something really good, so we’ve gotta take the good with the bad. One really good thing will always be the community we are building on Knicks Twitter and here at The Strickland. I only joined Twitter in May, but being a part of it has made every aspect of being a Knicks fan more enjoyable. 2021 may have ended on a frustrating note, but let’s use it as a springboard to show our strength as a community, and make 2022 the best it can possibly be. Thanks to every reader, listener, anyone who engages us on Twitter and likes what we do. It wouldn’t be possible without you.