The midseason acquisition that propelled New York toward playoff contention threatens to end their postseason run

Cam Reddish, Ryan Arcidiacono, Svi Mykhailiuk and a protected first-round pick is all it cost the New York Knicks to punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference playoff picture. For those three non-players and an unknown quantity in the 23rd pick in the upcoming draft, Josh Hart was acquired and brought to the Big Apple. 

The result? An immediate impact. A 17-8 record to close the season. Hart averaged 10.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.4 steals over those 25 games, on an efficient 58/51/78 shooting split to boot. He bolstered the team’s bench unit with an energy that collapses opponent defenses, picking apart any and all mistakes or turnovers, almost always converting them into points for the good guys. Prior to the trade, New York ranked 27th in points generated in fast break opportunities; following Hart’s arrival, the Knicks jumped all the way to 7th. 

The one stipulation to the deal, of course, being that New York will only make it as far as the second round of the playoffs, where they’ll fall short against Erik Spoelstra and the Miami Heat. 

Because more has proven less in this semifinal series, specifically in the form of Hart, whose role in the starting lineup is under siege by fans everywhere ahead of a critical Game 4. 

Everything that pushed the Knicks wing into the center of those “best midseason acquisition” conversations has in turn pushed his team into a corner, questioning their identity as their season’s on the brink.

Disclaimer: Hart is not the only guilty party in New York’s postseason problems, but he is at the center of them, shadowed by head coach Tom Thibodeau. Thus, we discuss.

We’ve all heard the square peg/round hole analogy. But what Thibs is attempting to do in this series seems more complex. Instead of fitting the square peg into the round hole, it’s like he’s trying to mold the round hole to be more square. That does sound more difficult, right? Or is it just me? Instead of cutting a new key, Thibodeau is trying to conform the nature of the lock, while the actual key that opens that lock shines bright on his keyring. 

That key is Quentin Grimes, for those of you who aren’t tracking. Because, if we’re trying to pinpoint how the Knicks found themselves in this two games to one hole against the Heat, we should go back to Game 3 of their first round series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. 

Grimes injured his shoulder in that game, which led to 28+ minutes for Hart, who finished with 13 points, six rebounds, and two steals. More importantly, he made both his 3-point attempts, an area New York’s been lacking all postseason. So, Thibs started Hart for Games 4 and 5. As the Knicks’ very own Energizer Bunny, he beat his drum to the rhythm of back-breaking rebounds, fastbreak finishes, and hustle plays galore. Rest assured, New York doesn’t take that series against the Cavaliers as handily as they did without Hart.

With multiple days rest ahead of round two, Grimes went through recovery and rehab, but admitted himself that he wasn’t 100 percent going into this series against Miami. So, Hart continued to get the starting nod. Since, he’s averaged the most out of place double-double that ever was: 13 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 5 assists per game on a blinding 40/28/58 shooting split. Oh, and he’s averaging 38 minutes a game in this series. His 114 total minutes played is 19th most among all players this round, and second only to Jalen Brunson (117 minutes) on the Knicks. 

None of this is to say that replacing Hart with Grimes will solve all of New York’s problems. But the biggest issue has been along the perimeter, where shots just aren’t being made. Wide-open shots are defined as those taken with six or more feet between the shooter and the defender, and open shots as those taken with the defender anywhere between four and six feet.

Only the Memphis Grizzlies, now eliminated, shot worse than the Knicks on wide-open threes this postseason; New York is shooting the lowest percentage on open threes. 

A look at both Grimes and Hart, through that same lens of three-point shot quality:

Grimes

• 0-for-6 on wide-open threes

• 3-of-9 on open threes

Hart

• 5-of-14 on wide-open threes

• 4-of-11 on open threes

Disclaimer: NBA tracking stats have long been criticized as not concrete, unable to be trusted, especially as you narrow things down to a sample size as small as one playoff series. Take these numbers for what they’re worth to you.

It’s hard to ignore the difference in team’s coverages when Hart is on the floor versus when Grimes, as the latter’s generated over twice as many wide-open threes as the former. The difference in gravity between a shooter who can hit from all areas along the perimeter, as opposed to someone who’s only shooting from the corners, is cosmic in scale.

Where teams would typically have to man up one-to-one for every shooter, with Hart on the floor a section of the hardwood becomes no man’s land, a guaranteed portion of space where there’s been a subconscious agreement to hold fire, paving the way for more double-teams.

Which brings us back to the 2021 Coach of the Year, who, in his most recent unacceptable veto of compromise, has refused to adjust not only the starting lineup, but the rotations as a whole. New York’s starting five of Grimes/Jalen Brunson/RJ Barrett/Julius Randle/Mitchell Robinson played 526 minutes together in the regular season, earning a +72 net rating.

They’ve played zero minutes together in the Miami series. 

Even if you think that Hart is your best option, why would your second-best not be the natural pivot in times of need, i.e. Heat runs, Knicks scoring droughts, or simply when Hart isn’t on the floor? Thibodeau coached fairly well to close out round one, but all that accomplished is an apparent ego boost and “go down with the ship” mentality in round two. 

And then there’s the fit next to Barrett, the only consistent player wearing New York across their chest in both this series and the playoffs overall. 

• In 363 possessions this postseason with Barrett and Hart on the floor, the Knicks have been outscored by 7.1 points per 100 possessions.

• In 182 possessions with Barrett off and Hart on, New York is outscoring opponents by 21 points per 100 possessions. 

• In 158 possessions with Barrett on and Hart off, the Knicks are being outscored by 0.6 points per 100 possessions. 

• New York has played just 14 possessions with both off the floor this postseason.

(The above statistics were provided by Cleaning the Glass)

The size of the sample here is important to remember, as well as the time frame: these numbers are from both the Cleveland and Miami series. But 363 possessions, mid-series, is enough data to see that Barrett and Hart as a duo don’t work. That same tandem in the regular season played 717 possessions together and only outscored opponents by 1.5 points per. 

Without putting the pressure on Grimes as the be-all solution to the Knicks’ postseason, there’s enough evidence that the team has to pivot away from Hart as the starting small forward ahead of Game 4. There’s knowing exactly how to get out of the rut you’ve dug yourself in, and there’s simply having the willingness to try. So far, we’ve seen neither from Tom Thibodeau.