What constitutes success for Tom Thibodeau with the Knicks in 2022-23?
After a tumultuous 2021-22 season, things seem to be on the right track for Tom Thibodeau in 2022-23 thus far. But what should be the goals for Thibs to not just save the Knicks, but also preserve his job in 2022-23 and beyond?
When writing for Knicks SI back in the summer of 2020, I identified Thomas Thibodeau Jr. as the best option available to serve as the next head coach of the New York Knicks. The Knicks were — by no exaggeration — in desperate need of stability. An organization that was essentially completely lacking in, well, organization, given that newly hired President of Basketball Operations Leon Rose hadn’t yet had much time to make his mark on the team’s roster.
Today, Thibodeau finds himself at the center of a myriad of debates regarding the Knicks, their roster, their expectations, and their potential success going forward. Essentially all of the choices he’s faced with are hot topics among Knick fans: from who he’ll end up trusting with the starting shooting guard position between veteran Evan Fournier and Leon Rose draft pick Quentin Grimes to how he’ll handle Julius Randle’s role on the team in its 2023 campaign (through three games, he’s doing pretty well with the latter).
All of this being said, it’s easy to complain about Thibodeau’s rotations and decisions from last season — and last season’s stink hasn’t quite worn off yet — but it’s harder to actually offer up solutions. Let’s take a shot at establishing some “bare minimums” for Thibodeau, including but not limited to legitimately realistic pathways to achieving them.
0.500 basketball
The New York Knicks went 37-45 last season with the player who touched the ball more than any other having a “worst case scenario” type of season. I’m aware it takes a fair bit of optimism to see it this way, but that… might not be that bad? With the additions of Jalen Brunson (so long, the corpse of Kemba Walker and poor, mis-utilized Alec Burks!) and Isaiah Hartenstein (not only can he catch passes, but he can do things with the ball in his hands once he does!), this team can be — and needs to be — better this season. I’m not saying that if they go 40-42 and Thibodeau has a good year in general, not meeting this record requirement is grounds for a firing; however, this team simply has enough talent to win this many games, or more, and an inability to do so would mark a second straight year for Thibodeau in which he underachieved due to a lack of ability to optimize the talent on his roster.
As a result of needing to stick to his tenets as a coach. Thibodeau is famously — or infamously — stubborn when it comes to making substantial changes to his rotations or game plans in-season; I respect him sticking to his guns, but not when it’s detrimental to the product on the court, which is unfortunately what we saw last season.
Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin play 20-plus minutes per game (each!)
I know. A raw minutes per game requirement isn’t exactly the most conducive to productive discourse as many Knick fans, myself included, would prefer that each player plays 19 minutes per game in a productive role than 24 out of position. However, Thibodeau’s style is all about putting a winning product on the court, and given the way that this roster is constructed, that style needs to include Quickley and Toppin this season for the Knicks to legitimately be giving themselves the best chance they have to win each game. As starters in their career, Quickley and Toppin have averaged 18.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists (in a six-game sample size) and 20.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists (10 game sample size for Mr. Toppin) per game, respectively — these kids are just good.
I created a sample rotation for the 2022-23 Knickerbockers (thanks to thehoopsgeek.com) that I linked in the tweet above, in which Quickley and Toppin receive exactly 20 minutes each. Obviously this rotation wouldn’t be executed to the second in an actual game setting — but as a rough plan, it functions as what I believe is a reasonable guide for productively integrating the young talent on the team with the known quantities in the veteran presences. It required not giving Derrick Rose as many minutes as most fans would likely project him to play on a team coached by Thibodeau, but perhaps 16 minutes per game for Rose is what the team needs — opportunity for Quickley to play “the 1” while allowing Rose to save energy to play with a significantly high defensive intensity when he is on the court, something the bench unit might need at the point of attack.
Through three games? Obi’s at 16 minutes per game, and Quickley’s at 22.3, but that’s before the impending return of Quentin Grimes. We’ll see how things go.
Finding just the right amount of Randle
Julius Randle has had the ball in his hands too many times in his tenure as a Knick. While his 6-foot-9, 255 lb. frame could be more optimally utilized as a pick-and-wrecking-ball type of talent that punishes teams deploying small-ball lineups or skinnier centers for not protecting the rim with all they’ve got, Randle played more like a wiry, 6-foot-3 shooting guard last season — afraid of initiating contact at the rim and much more comfortable with settling for long-distance jumpers, even if they were contested. This is straight up a problem out of the Kristaps Porzingis era. How do we fix it?
The team began addressing this issue with their signing of Brunson over the offseason — a surefire way to ensure that the team had a new “top dog” whose job was to handle the majority of the offense’s ball handling duties. Even the Knicks’ young star, RJ Barrett, noted the change in Randle’s play thus far:
What we’ve seen from Randle in the young season thus far is encouraging in comparison to his play from last season, but still not exactly where I’d like it to be consistently throughout the season in regards to his off-ball movement and shot selection. Even if his shot is falling, the specific ones he attempts aren’t exactly great offensive opportunities that must be capitalized on. Brunson and Barrett should be able to help create all kinds of better shots for Randle, and themselves, as the team’s chemistry improves with more in-game reps. As of right now, small sample size, as with everything with the Knicks; but things are looking good for Randle.
Tom Thibodeau has a chance this season to once again find himself coaching a playoff team. This Knicks’ roster certainly isn’t short on talent — from its steady-handed leaders in Brunson and Barrett to its electric bench unit featuring Quickley and Toppin, all of the ingredients are on the table for something special to cook in Madison Square Garden this season. It’s up to the team’s lead strategist and game planner to decide whether it’s redemption amongst his doubters, or a certain path to his own demise.
