A year after a surprising No. 4 seed and playoff appearance, the Knicks find themselves staring down the draft lottery again. What lessons can the Knicks take from the Bucks and the Hornets, two teams that faced the same situation in the last 10 years?

The New York Knicks are 28-38. The 8-10 seeds in the Eastern Conference are each currently between one and three games up or down of .500. So unless the Knicks close this season on a triumphant run the way they did last season, their destination after Game 82 is the draft lottery. Odds are, New York will finish this season well behind last year’s 47-win pace. What comes next can go in any number of directions. Two teams in particular highlight the different paths the future could take.

I looked over all 30 teams’ franchise histories to see when they last made the kind of jump the Knicks did last year, when their winning percentage jumped from .319 to .570. Specifically, I looked at how those teams fared after taking their leap. Most were playoff teams for 3-5 years after their jump, then faded off. There were outliers: the San Antonio Spurs entered the stratosphere immediately after drafting Tim Duncan in 1997, kicking off a 22-year playoff run that included five championships. The 1992-93 Orlando Magic added Shaquille O’Neal and climbed from 21 wins to 41, but still missed the playoffs; they and last year’s Golden State Warriors were the only two to miss the postseason the same season they took a jump.

Only two followed the same path the Knicks appear to be on of stinking, getting way better, and then slipping out of the postseason again. One is an example New York hopes to emulate. The other? Not so much.

In the 2013 season, the Miwaukee Bucks were a lowly 15-67. A year later they were 41-41, then fell to 33-49 in 2015-16. The Charlotte Hornets (then Bobcats) were the worst team in NBA history in 2011-12 at 7-59, improved to 21-61 in 2013, then 43-39 the year after, and then — same as the Bucks — dropped to 33-49. It’s hard to compare raw numbers with the Knicks of recent years since those years featured two COVID-cut campaigns. They tied a franchise-worst with just 17 wins in 2019, then played to a 26-win pace in 2020, 47 in 2021, and are now on pace to finish — you guessed it! — 33-49. But not all 33-49s are equal: one team basically bottomed out at that mark, while the other turned things around to ultimately reach the summit. There are lessons in the rise and the fall for the Knicks.

All three turnarounds feature teams whose strength was their defense. Under Steve Clifford — Tessio to Tom Thibodeau’s Clemenza in the Jeff Van Gundy coaching tree — Charlotte improved from the worst defensive rating in 2013 to fifth in their renaissance season. That same year, the Bucks were dead last in defensive rating; a year later they rose all the way to fourth. By comparison, the 2020 Knicks were 23rd. Last year, in Thibs’ debut, they finished third. When emergency surgery’s required, first thing you gotta do is stop the bleeding. New York, like Charlotte and MiIwaukee before them, rode that to their revival. But if you been around babies, you know the deal: standing up comes easier than staying up.

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