After a tumultuous season and a high-octane start to free agency, could a Julius Randle trade be around the corner? Or does it seem more likely the Knicks will hold onto their fallen star of 2020-21?

It was not meant to go like this. After a disappointing first season in New York, Julius Randle made a complete turnaround in 2021. He became the underdog candidate that brought the Knicks back to relevancy and competitiveness. He was meant to become a mainstay for the Knicks. It had seemed that New York finally got their next Amar’e Stoudemire or Carmelo Anthony. While he is currently still with the team, the relationship he has with the fans is murky after a year of regression and some breakout performances from the younger players at the season’s close. His spot on the roster does not appear to be as invincible as it was after 2020-21. If the Knicks decide it’s time to move on from Randle, what would that mean for their Knicks future? Let’s take a look.

Why would the Knicks trade Randle in the first place?

Julius Randle lost his All-NBA level mojo he possessed in 2020-21. His overall FG% dropped from 45% to 41%, and his 3-point percentage took an even bigger hit, dropping from 41% to 30%. Along with the production drop off, several times throughout the season Randle displayed a lack of effort and a lack of emotional control.

His frustrations from his poor play also carried over to the team's personnel. A handful of times, Randle was spotted distancing himself from team huddles during timeouts, and one time in a game against the Lakers punched a computer an assistant coach was holding during a timeout. He also has created a bad reputation with the officials, resulting in 12 technical fouls and two ejections picked up during the season. 

Randle’s poor sportsmanship this season has caused fans to turn against him. Numerous times, many fans at Madison Square Garden were heard chanting Obi Toppin’s name when Randle would struggle, booing Randle to get off the court. Randle’s response to fans changing those boos into cheers one game in January was short and simple: “shut the f— up”. 

One would be right to assume that trading Randle gets rid of these problems. The relationship he has formed with Knicks fans is ugly, and as the days go on, less and less people seem to enjoy him continuing to represent New York. It felt as if every game Randle’s attitude got worse, which affected the whole team. 

When you combine the attitude and effort problems with the poor play that Randle had this past season, you find a hell storm of chemistry issues and a diminished team morale. Considering that Randle is the Knicks’ star player who is expected to take on a leadership role, the issues presented could set the team on a backwards trajectory, as they would expect the problem to simply fix itself, when in this case it does not look like an easy fix.

Holding on to Randle feels like carrying a huge burden. You’ve got a young team with a fierce determination to compete and get better each and every day, but this big distraction centered around your star player is a roadblock. 

How likely is a trade involving Randle?

This part becomes tricky. Fans certainly wish the front office would strongly consider finding a trade partner for the 2021 All-Star. However, there is one monumental thing that needs more consideration. Randle is currently set to have his 4-year, $117 million contract extension kick in next season. 

The extension was given to Randle after his astonishing 2020-21 season, as the Knicks were ready to build a contender around him. With that contract, trading him becomes increasingly difficult. At least one team out there would have to be willing to take on such a large contract for a player that is not guaranteed to perform at the same level he did in 2020-21. That would also mean they have to be able to tolerate any sort of attitude or effort problems he could possibly present on a different club. It is a high-risk, high-reward scenario for any team that tries to acquire the star forward. It’s also worth noting that there is no guarantee the Knicks themselves would be willing to move on from Randle, especially after signing him to the extension.

Who would become the Knicks’ top option should the team and Randle part ways?

The current No. 2 option for the Knicks is RJ Barrett (Randle being the main option). However, RJ started getting many more touches in the second half of the season (31% usage compared to 26% before the All-Star break), giving him some good burn in an increased role. If Randle gets dealt for guys that won’t get as much usage, Barrett would likely become the main option. However, the Knicks seem more determined to find Barrett a budding partner, more specifically at the point guard position, so Barrett as a potential No. 1 option isn’t as clear at this point in time.

As the season progressed, it became clear that Randle was not fit to be the main option for an offense. Despite being the top guy in 2020-21, which saw the Knicks reach the postseason for the first time since 2013, Randle is far from a traditional playmaker, and it showed this past season that facilitating an offense is not exactly his niche. After posting a career best 1.77 AST/TO ratio in 2020-21, he only recorded a 1.52 AST/TO ratio this past season.

He averaged a career high-tying 3.4 turnovers a game (he also had 3.4 in 2020-21), while averaging one less assist per game (5.1 in 2021-22, 6.0 in 2020-21). Despite Randle’s improved facilitating compared to when he was in New Orleans back in 2018-19 (3.1 APG), a man of his size (6-foot-8, 250 lbs.) is meant more for attacking the basket off the pick-and-roll with a proper point guard at the helm. He’s better off as a complementary piece to an offense that does not center its entire game plan around him.

What would a Randle trade mean for his backup, Obi Toppin?

Trading Randle would allow current backup forward Obi Toppin to be inserted into a starting role. The 2020 lottery pick has been glued to the bench for the majority of his first two seasons, oftentimes being pulled from games immediately after making a mistake. 

Tom Thibodeau was left with virtually no choice but to start Toppin when Randle went down with an injury to close the season. Toppin averaged just 17.1 minutes per game in 2021-22, and a big reason why that number is even that high is because he started the team’s final five games of the regular season, elevating his season average. Randle averaged 35.3 MPG despite his struggles, more than double Toppin’s amount.

In the five games he started to end the season, Toppin averaged a staggering 27.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG, shot 46% from three, and notched a career-high 42-point performance against the Raptors in the season finale. He played 37.4 minutes a game during this stretch. Overall as a starter, he averaged a 20/7/3 (68.8% TS) line, compared to a 7/3/0 (58.5% TS) line as a reserve. Before the All-Star break, Toppin had shot just 22% from three, one of the lowest marks amongst qualified shooters in the NBA (he only started two games in this stretch). Despite his starter numbers being under a smaller sample size, it’s nonetheless encouraging to see his confidence rise as he saw the court more.

The freedom Toppin likely felt not having to worry about being subbed out for one mistake proved to be a huge benefit for him. He was able to learn from his mistakes on the court, and it also provided a huge confidence boost for him. He also did not have to worry about Thibodeau’s ultra dependence on Randle since he was ineligible. Toppin was able to figure out what role best suits him on this team. 

As a reserve, Toppin only took around five shots a game, while as a starter he averaged close to 13 shots a game. As his shots accrued more volume, they started to fall more consistently as he was able to get himself into a rhythm, which is something he was unable to do as a reserve. Previously characterized as a rim-running fast break scorer, Toppin has expanded his game into being able to spot up for threes while still being active inside.

Does Randle himself want to stay with the Knicks?

According to team president Leon Rose, yes. “Julius loves it here in New York, wants to be in New York.” Randle himself also denied an unconfirmed report that he requested a trade out of New York. The team currently appears reluctant to even take phone calls on the availability of Randle. 

Randle has expressed how much he adores the Knicks’ owner, James Dolan, and he thinks he does a wonderful job handling the club’s operations. Numerous times he has also mentioned how much he loves the fans of New York despite some of the fans' transgressions. 

This desire to stay in New York could influence the decisions the front office makes this offseason. Without a no trade clause in Randle’s contract, the front office is left to make the big decision of whether or not they should trade Randle now. If they want to make their superstar player happy, they need to do their best to cooperate with Randle and determine what is the best for both parties.

With that being said, as it stands right now, Randle is here to stay for a few more seasons, not becoming a free agent until 2026. However, this very awkward year for the star forward could mean major ramifications are on the horizon. Will the Knicks be willing to pull the plug? Only time will tell.