Why keeping Julius Randle is the right move for the Knicks’ present and future
Julius Randle is having a career year, ascending to likely All-Star status. Yet some are of the belief that trading Randle now would be the best move, since this team isn’t ready to contend yet. Shwinnypooh lays out the case for retaining Randle.
As the Knicks sit at 13-15, most reasonable observers would call it a successful campaign thus far. Under Tom Thibodeau’s stern guidance, the team has established itself as one of the top defenses in the NBA, third in defensive rating as of today, are a tough out every night despite their offensive shortcomings, and have garnered plaudits for their play from various opponents throughout the course of the season.
There have been a number of reasons for optimism with regards to the franchise’s future as well. After a rocky rookie season, RJ Barrett has been much steadier. While the 3-point shot is very much a work in progress, his finishing, playmaking, decision-making, and defensive diligence have all been much improved. Mitchell Robinson is still a raw offensive player, but his growth defensively, in terms of positioning and awareness, is leaps and bounds beyond where it had been over his first two seasons in the league, and his tremendous grit playing through various injuries stands out. Much has already been said about Immanuel Quickley’s pleasantly surprising rookie season by others far wiser than me. Obi Toppin has struggled to find his way, but there have been recent signs that he’s starting to get there.
So, all in all, there are plenty of encouraging signs for a franchise in desperate need of positive vibes. Yet, despite all of that, perhaps the biggest cause for optimism isn’t the development of their burgeoning young core, but from a far more unexpected source. Julius Randle — a player that yours truly and the majority of Knicks fans reviled after his first year in New York — has been a revelation this season.
Through 28 games, Randle is averaging 22.4 points, 11.1 rebounds, and, most impressively, 5.6 assists per game. He’s also improved his shooting both from three (39.1%) and from the free throw line (80.6%). It’s more than just his box score numbers, though. He’s playing for the team and making winning plays. He’s become aware of the attention he’s drawing from defenses, and using it against them to manipulate the help in order to create quality looks for teammates.
Most refreshing has been the change in his on-court demeanor. He doesn’t constantly look like the most morose motherfucker on the court at all times. Even though he’s been all business in his approach, there’s a genuine ebullience to his play in interacting with teammates that has been absent in the past. The Knicks have spent years playing without any joie de vivre, and I’ll be damned if it isn’t Julius Randle who’s leading the charge to reverse that.
He’s been wonderful thus far and deservedly receiving All-Star buzz. Without him, the Knicks would be delivering on the numerous “worst team in the league” prognostications from before the season, rather than being in contention for a playoff spot, as they currently are.
Yet, despite all of this, there’s a school of thought that the Knicks should cash in on the 26-year-old before his play potentially cools off. A still-rebuilding team can always make use of more future first and second round picks anyway, right?
That’s certainly not wrong in a vacuum. First round picks are always critical in the pursuit of acquiring stars, be it by using the selection itself or as part of a trade package. The Knicks are currently operating at a pick surplus — something which remains exciting after years and years of tossing away picks like candy — courtesy of the Kristaps Porzingis trade, and other asset accumulation maneuvers that have been done to net future second rounders. If they want to be in position to trade for a star, though, there are teams like Oklahoma City and New Orleans who simply have an even greater war chest.
So should the Knicks be looking to flip Randle to deepen their own cupboard of picks?
That would seem foolish once you take a look at the landscape around the league.
So should the Knicks be attempting to create a bidding war for Randle, in a market where the majority of teams who would have interest using future capital in a bid to bolster their roster with a player delivering star performances don’t have much to trade to begin with? It seems a fool’s errand.
The value proposition of trading him goes beyond just the potential asset haul. The Knicks have largely been a joke for the better part of two decades. A couple of fun, small-ball-charged, Carmelo Anthony-led seasons didn’t change the perception of the franchise, because its foundations were never sustainable. Once the cracks started to appear, it all collapsed in short order, a fall exacerbated by a myriad of management mistakes.
Through a combination of factors, the Knicks, despite countless errors in the draft and free agency, are finally in a position where they can change that narrative, and do it in a manner which can position them to organically develop into a competitive team while keeping themselves flexible to be players in free agency and in the trade market down the line. Randle’s continued excellent play, and his team-friendly contract, gives them time to further evaluate things without needing to make a decision immediately.
For a team that’s been stumbling around the desert, thirsty for any stroke of fortune, having a 26-year-old coming into his own on a bargain contract — while demonstrating an ability to not only shoulder an outsized scoring burden, but also operate as the primary source of creation for the team — is a gift horse the Knicks would be foolish to stare at in the mouth. We have already seen evidence, albeit in a small sample, that Randle and Barrett can form a potent duo with the oxygen boost that substituting Quickley in for Elfrid Payton provides a spacing-asphyxiated starting lineup. Considering that Barrett (20 years old), Quickley (21), Robinson (22), and Toppin (23) are good bets to make considerable improvements over the next few seasons, the Knicks are very likely to progress by simply keeping things together.
This, of course, presumes the Knicks and Randle would agree to an extension to his current deal either this summer or the following offseason, but that seems like a fair bet to make if things maintain the way they are. Considering the now star-barren free agent classes in 2021 and 2022, it would behoove the Knicks not to overvalue cap flexibility in lieu of keeping the borderline star they have in house and with the team beyond the expiration of his current contract.
Now, there is a valid argument to be had about what the ceiling of a team with Randle as a primary offensive fulcrum is. That’s something the front office must be cognizant of when charting the course for the team moving forward, but for now, they simply aren’t at the point where they’re even close to bumping their heads against a Randle-created roof preventing them from getting to the next level.
Barrett, for all his improvement, is still developing his abilities as an on-ball creator. Quickley’s learning how to point guard again after two years at Kentucky playing off-ball and understanding how to balance his scoring instincts with the distributing responsibilities that come along with being a primary ball handler. Robinson’s value as a roll man is a genuine threat, but he remains very limited in scope offensively, and Toppin’s still finding his sea legs in the NBA. Randle’s emergence is allowing the Knicks’ young core time to develop their games, while he helps keep the team competitive on the court with an all-around game which is flourishing as he enters his peak years. These guys — including Randle, who isn’t exactly old himself — can all grow together over the next few seasons.
After the next few seasons is when the Knicks should really consider moving Randle, if concerns regarding the viability of his long-term fit alongside the Knicks’ young core or the ceiling of the team remain. I’ve long held the belief the long game for Leon Rose and Co. is targeting a trade for Devin Booker during the 2022/23 season when he’ll have just two years left on his contract. It isn’t just Booker, though. Players like Karl Anthony-Towns, Donovan Mitchell, Joel Embiid, etc. will be at points in their careers, and more importantly their contracts, where if they feel they’re at a dead end with their current franchises, they may look for greener pastures. That all four of those players were represented by Rose previously doesn’t hurt, either, but I digress.
Randle would be a key component in any such star trade not just for salary matching purposes, but because often when trading out a star, teams want a high-level player in addition to picks and young players as part of the return. Randle can effectively be a bridge to get the kids — and, quite frankly, the organization — from where they are now to a more competitive stage, where after establishing a solid foundation the front office can feel comfortable trading for a star.
Obviously, that’s an ideal scenario, but it’s one that’s a very real possibility for the Knicks and not reminiscent of star-fucking Knicks fantasies of the past where the pitch to stars had little to do with what was in place, just the appeal of the bright lights of Manhattan and a blank slate. Punting on Randle right now for an asset play would send mixed signals after all the bluster about establishing a culture where competitive on-court play is the ethos of the team. How would younger players on the team, all of whom have gushed about his professionalism and guidance, respond to the team once again signaling that the Knicks aren’t interested in playing for today, but more for positioning themselves for an unknown future they hope will be filled with unknown stars?
The Knicks have stumbled into a good thing with a player most wanted gone before the season started. Now isn’t the time to cash that in for more lottery tickets. They have plenty as is. It’s time to grow something by putting in the actual work. Randle can help with that now and moving forward. The Knicks shouldn’t get too smart for their own good.
