Why patience with Obi Toppin in his rookie season is a welcome change from the past
Obi Toppin’s rookie season has been unorthodox, especially by New York Knicks standards. But his time thus far preaches patience nonetheless.
It’s been a long time since I’ve called myself a “runner.” Years, probably.
Not to say that I haven’t been running, because I definitely have.
Cardio is a great cop out for when people say they haven’t seen you at the gym lifting: “Yeah, I haven’t had the time. But I’m running every day!” Honestly, I haven’t gotten back up on that horse yet because, well, it takes so much effort just to readjust yourself into the saddle.
Even if you’ve been walking miles daily, acclimating to a faster pace at length can be absolutely grounding for the first few trials.
It takes weeks of running, with breaks in between for exhausted breathing and plenty of walking, before the average person can comfortably make it through a mile or more at a running pace.
Now imagine you’re in the middle of your walk, with little to no experience actually running at length, and you hear a pack of wild zombies closing in on you. You’re afraid, unprepared, and likely won’t make it far before they inevitably consume you.
In a lot of ways, that’s what it’s been like to be a New York Knicks lottery pick in recent years.
With the exception of Kristaps Porzingis — who, I hate to say, shined in his first season — the typical Knicks lottery pick has had a rough, inconsistent start — and for some, it’s led to their falling out of the rotation altogether, a complete derailment of their dreams in the NBA.
Specifically, Frank Ntilikina and Kevin Knox are the biggest examples of how quickly life in this league can go from promising to terminal. But life in the NBA wasn’t always like this for them. If you go back to their rookie seasons, both were allowed full grip of the wheel, a trust to steer the ship, and playing time that would have the average two-way player drooling in envy.
It’s been a yearly tradition, watching New York’s respective lottery pick struggle to keep a firm grip on the start of their careers, with distractions and obstructions aplenty making any and every effort to throw them off the beaten path. But this year’s lottery pick, 22-year-old Obi Toppin, has had the luxury of casually walking miles and miles without the pressures of expectation, through a field of everglades abundant with unicorns and rainbows alike.
New York’s rookie forward is averaging just 11.7 minutes per night, the lowest mark for a Knicks lottery pick since infamous bust Jordan Hill back in the 2009-2010 season.
The result? Well, that’s to be determined, but fans are hoping he turns out a hell of a lot better than Hill, who hasn’t suited up for an NBA team since 2016. Given the state of today’s Knicks, it’s safe to think that Toppin will end up a better player than Hill in the long run.
Per Basketball Reference, the last NBA rookie to play less than 12 minutes per game (minimum 10 games played) to go on and earn an All-Star nod was Thibs disciple Jimmy Butler.
Furthermore, of the last 75 rookies (this dates back to the 1990-1991 season) that fell in the same company, only three others went on to earn an All-Star nod in their careers aside from Butler: Kyle Korver, Chris Gatling, and Cedric Ceballos.
Does this hold any relevance to Toppin today? No. Should this influence how we perceive his play so far, or influence our judgements about his future? Also no.
Still, it’s unorthodox, to say the least, that New York’s lottery pick isn’t seeing more time. They are, after all, the worst scoring team in the NBA, per the league’s website. Toppin was heralded as a ready-made offensive talent that would have little to no issue transitioning to the pros.
And while that hasn’t exactly been the case thus far, the 22-year-old hasn’t overwhelmed on that end at all. An occasional 3-pointer here, and the periodic baseline sprint for a lob there, and you’ve essentially summed up the general gist of all of Toppin’s 73 career points.
Oh, and there is the absolute perfection of a moment from Saturday’s win over the Portland Trail Blazers. You may recognize the old head defending Toppin in this clip:
Is New York’s rookie truly to blame for his struggles? Are the Knicks at fault? Or is this all a part of the process, and for the first time in a while, we’re seeing what it looks like at its core?
Again, and I hate to do this to you friends, but that much has yet to be decided. I can see an argument for both sides, which likely means that it’s just that — something that cannot yet be properly weighed and evaluated, and shouldn’t be until there’s more data to back up any theory.
On one hand, Toppin’s fallen victim to what some of us like to call the “Kevin Knox Syndrome,” which is only best described as perpetually being played out of position. Per Basketball-Reference, Obi has recorded a whopping 99% of his minutes playing power forward, leaving the other 1% of the time to random sets where he’s at the five.
Toppin’s moments on the floor haven’t been ugly by any means. He’s come in and made the most of his minutes, using the tutelage of both Thibs and *gulps* Randle to help guide him. He’s rushed to find looks at times, and other times he’s set out strictly to position his teammates to score. Toppin’s attitude is definitely team first, and in this league, you’ve got to give him credit — there are so many guys that come in expecting the ball in a display of arrogance.
Yet while it’s nice that he’s not demanding the ball, or calling isolation sets when matched up with guys who are clearly more skilled, there is a timidness that can be seen on both ends.
Oftentimes when the Knicks find Toppin for the open look from deep, he hesitates, and finds a rolling Elfrid Payton or Immanuel Quickley, hoping they can make lemonade out of oranges. On the other end, it’s much too frequent that the 6-foot-9 forward misses out on defensive opportunities, simply because he’s preparing for the play after the present one.
Toppin gets caught bracing for the defensive rebound way too often. But given that we’ve been treated to a consistently dominant rim presence from Mitchell Robinson in recent years, is it possible that our expectations set by precedent are out of reach for a guy who’s played *checks notes* not even a quarter of the NBA’s abbreviated year, or 200 minutes total?
Maybe it’s the calf strain that did it; one that New York appropriately exercised maximum caution in sidelining him for an entire 10-game stretch. Because his debut wasn’t too shabby.
Toppin scored nine points and had two blocks in the Knicks’ season opening loss to the Indiana Pacers, before he went on to miss 10 games, in which New York went an even .500. He’s averaging 14.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per 36 minutes, neither of which are outstanding, but also aren’t too shabby.
New York has tallied 11 wins and 15 losses through their first 26 games — their best stretch in that initial span since the 2017-2018 season, when Jarrett Jack was starting point guard. It’s largely by way of the team’s defense, which under new head coach Tom Thibodeau has seen stellar and stark improvements compared to the flawed product we saw last season.
After their most recent win over the Chicago Bulls, New York’s boasting the league’s sixth-best defensive rating at 108.1 points allowed per 100 possessions. That comes after putting up the league’s 23rd ranked rating last season, at 112.4 in the abbreviated 66-game season.
So yes, for the first time in a long time, this team is actually competitive. Their recent fourth quarter losses to the LA Clippers and Miami Heat will attest to that — they were in it until the final minutes, and against a Western Conference powerhouse and a team a few months removed from a Finals appearance, that’s as competitive as it gets for the Knicks.
More pertinent to Toppin himself, New York’s on the verge of rostering their first All-Star since Kristaps Porzingis in 2018. After a disappointing inaugural year with the Knicks, Julius Randle’s grown into a role far beyond what was anticipated when he arrived.
It’s his rise to All-Star (well, that much isn’t decided yet; GO VOTE!) that’s placed Toppin on the back burner. Randle is the team’s starting power forward, and focal point of the offense.
And while Toppin’s longterm fit may very well be at center, he isn’t going to see minutes at either position behind a rotation of Randle, Robinson, and Nerlens Noel. Thibodeau made sure to send that message clearly in that matinee matchup against the Clippers. Without Noel, the coach turned to longtime friend and 35-year-old veteran Taj Gibson to back up Mitch. And now, in a move that very well may serve as a benefit to Toppin, the Knicks have brought in former MVP Derrick Rose. They sent Dennis Smith Jr and Charlotte’s 2021 second-pick to the Detroit Pistons as compensation.
But it means little for Toppin if Thibs and company continue to refuse running him out with lineups that best suit his immediate needs on the offensive end. Rose coming in will give New York a veteran guy who can confidently and accurately conduct some pick-and-roll action.
Not to say that fellow neophyte Immanuel Quickley is incapable, because he most certainly isn’t. Per NBA.com, the rookie guard ranks in the 86th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball handler, and he’s averaging over five possessions per game in that very role, just with one of Noel/Robinson.
And Toppin, on the other end of things, ranks out in the 71st percentile as the roll man.
I’m inclined to remind you of sample size here, because, well, that’s the entire point of the last 1800+ words you’ve hopefully thoroughly climbed through and not skimmed for sake of mid-workday entertainment. As the team rolls through the incoming change that Rose’s presence still in fact warrants in the year 2021, they’d be wise to turn to the pick-and-roll period, but largely with the former MVP and future MVP (I’m kidding, mostly) in Toppin as the roll man.
We saw a glimpse of what Rose can be for the eighth overall pick in their Tuesday night loss to the Miami Heat. Early on, the Knicks’ newest addition dropped a beautiful no-look pass to Toppin, resulting in two points for New York.
If Thibodeau can roll Obi out in lineups with Rose and one of Noel/Gibson, it’s possible the Knicks may see an uptick in bench scoring —and some direct growth on the offensive end for the rookie. That’s something the team needs to see, and when they do, I fully anticipate the coaching staff to extend Toppin’s leash. As we saw on Sunday in their loss to the Miami Heat, when the rookie gets going, he gets to stay on the floor.
Obi recorded all of his seven points in Sunday’s matchup in the fourth quarter. So not only was he a plus on the offensive end, but he was coming up clutch all the same.
Give the kid time before throwing out his right to a fair trial. If you spent the NBA offseason preaching to anonymous strangers on the internet about giving guys like Ntilkina, Knox, or Dennis Smith Jr. more run, then supporting Toppin’s NBA start should be an easy transition.
My advice is this, and by now you all should know the disdain I have for cliches: “a watched kettle never boils, patience is bitter but its fruit is often sweet, Rome wasn’t built in a day, etc.”
Kristaps Porzingis started all 72 games that he played in his rookie season; he averaged 28.4 minutes per game in the orange and blue.
Frank Ntilikina started just nine of his 72 appearances in year one, but averaged 21.9 minutes nightly for the Knicks.
Kevin Knox started 57 of his 75 games played in his debut campaign, and he played a whopping 28.8 minutes on average for New York.
Obi Toppin is 22 years old, yes, but he’s played just 16 games in the NBA. After campaigning so hard for the aforementioned neophytes of New York Knicks history, why is it this year that the team’s rookie gets such a short leash?
How many players in league history had things even remotely figured out in such a span?
Toppin’s had time to walk, and in brief moments has been allowed to sprint, but until we see him put it all together at a distance, what’s the rush in deciding his future as an NBA talent?
