Wildcard, Wildcat: A closer look at Tyrese Maxey
Prez: I never thought I would say this, but Shwin, I need your help! I am utterly bamboozled. No player in this class makes me question my own evaluation process more than one Tyrese Maxey (ranked 13th on our big board). Only Anthony Edwards has a greater gap between what they can do at any given moment and their statistical profile. To make matters worse, young master Maxey plays for the one team and coach that routinely produces NBA players who outplay both their draft position and their statistical profile: the University of Kentucky and John Calipari.
Before I get into all of these borderline philosophical questions, let’s take a step back: what are your general, gut-reaction thoughts on Maxey? What vibes do you get from him as a hooper and human being?
Shwinnypooh: The first step to recovery is accepting you’re bamboozled and need my help.
General, gut-reaction on Maxey is that he’s a fucking gamer. The best thing I can say about him is that even when he’s having a poor shooting game from the field — and lord were there plenty of those — his effort level doesn’t dip. He won’t shirk offensive responsibility and hide in a corner — *stares directly at Frank Ntilikina* — nor does he stop chasing his man over screens defensively — *stares directly at every other Knicks guard this millennium* — he just keeps chugging along, never tiring.
There’s a pluckiness of spirit in Maxey’s game, where he plays with the belief that if he keeps doing the right things, the results will follow. He showed a knack for coming up with crunch time buckets, and habitually turned up in big games.
Is that coincidence in a small sample, or indicative of a player who raises his game in accordance with the stakes? I’m guessing it’s the former, but I’m an idiot, so there’s that.
As far as him as a human being, I mean, I really could not buy into the non-basketball side of of a prospect more than I do with Maxey. I’d encourage everybody to watch the interview he did with Mike Schmitz. His recall of plays is great, and that type of recognition bodes well for his ability to learn and grow from mistakes. Through the entire thing it’s really hard not to find yourself rooting for the kid. He gushes more about teammate and fellow draft entrant Nick Richards euro-stepping in a game than any of the numerous highlight reel plays of his own that were shown.
So as far as the intangible and human elements at play, I’d say he’s on par with anybody in this draft. Unfortunately, that’s not all that matters for a potential lottery pick. The actual skills are important, and not just the ability to do things, but the consistency and efficacy in which you get them done.
As you mentioned, like Edwards, there’s a discrepancy between Maxey’s ability to do shit and how consistently and efficiently he does that shit. When you watch him, what specifically stands out to you in that regard?
Prez: He takes hard shots — that is what stands out. However, it is not quite the same tough shot diet that Cole Anthony and Anthony Edwards regularly pick from. Those guys get to dribble the ball a ton at the top of the key, and because of what they prefer to do with the rock and the team they have, they often took tough contested off-the-dribble shots after surveying defenses. On the other end of the spectrum, Maxey was used by Coach Calipari as an off-ball guard in the Tyler Herro/JJ Redick mold quite a bit: sprinting around multiple screens, juking defenders, with hopes of taking movement jumpers or high-torque cuts into the paint. Watch him put this kid through the wringer:
When he got the ball off movement he would make a decision pretty quickly. Sometimes that was to pass the rock, sometimes it was to pull the trigger on a jumper, sometimes it was to immediately take 1-2 dribbles and attack the paint. It was like he was perpetually doing a drill where he was only allowed to have the ball for less than three seconds and had to give MAX EFFORT upon touching the ball:
He’s not quite the kind of shooter deserving of the Duncan Robinson playbook (29% from three at Kentucky; 31% from three on 200 attempts as a high school senior; career average between high school and college around 35%), but he willingly played that role for Calipari to accommodate sophomore on-ball guards Ashton Hagans and Immanuel Quickley. He’s not a non-shooter by any means… I tend to trust my own personal mechanical evaluation of prospects’ shot mechanics, and I think his are mostly very good and might actually play up with a farther NBA 3-point line, because low release points tend to be better for long shots and worse for midrange shots (which explains why Maxey back-rims a lot of short jumpers). Here’s two deep threes he took with no hesitation:
But like I said, the numbers are the numbers, and they’re not good. I guess that gets to the crux of the issue with him: he has some legit red flags in his statistical profile, but was used in a very specific and very weird role. We’ve seen Calipari intentionally pigeonhole guys for the sake of his team time and time again, inadvertently hiding some of their skills, but usually it hasn’t harmed their collegiate statistical profile that much (check my chart below).
How do you weigh the “Coach Cal Effect” with him compared to other Kentucky guards?
Shwinnypooh: That’s a good question, and one I’m not sure how to answer. I do completely buy the “Coach Cal Effect” as a factor for many UK guards and wings. Sometimes it helps buoy their draft stock (Malik Monk, Kevin Knox) and in other instances it masks potential upside (Devin Booker, SGA).
Where does Maxey fit on that continuum? Again, I’m not quite sure. He’s a capable ball handler and finisher when he slashes, but he doesn’t quite have the vision or feel yet to leverage that into playmaking for others. He’s able to shoot off the dribble and off screens, but hasn’t been very efficient in doing so.
What does it mean? Did Cal hurt him by funneling him into a role he wasn’t best suited for? Potentially, but then what would have been most effective? It’s probably as more of a guy who can occasionally be used as a movement shooting threat, but should stick to the rivers (spot-up shooting) and the lakes (slashing off the catch against a defense on tilt) that he’s used to.
Can he improve his movement shooting? I think so, but he’s never going to be an elite threat in that regard. It would be a string in his bow, but not the one you want him harping on very often. Will he develop the ability to break down a set defense off the dribble consistently? Athletically it’s on the table, but while his handle is solid, he would need to take a significant step forward in that aspect of his game to ever develop into a viable second option type, let alone a top gun.
As far as his usage at Kentucky is concerned, it seemed Cal tried to balance putting him in uncomfortable situations to develop the more unrefined elements of his game, with playing more to his established strengths as a shooter (theoretically, at least) and an attacking force going downhill. The Wildcats were not blessed with a dynamic primary ball handler who would have freed Maxey up to play to those strengths, so I’d say Cal did about the best he could given what the circumstances allowed.
I guess the question is, do the Knicks have the talent to put him in that role? Without a splash in free agency or via trade for a quality lead guard capable of providing consistent dribble penetration and initiation, I would say no — offensively, anyway. Defensively, with Frank and Mitch, you could argue they’d be able to optimize him — but that’s a fluid situation which, for a rebuilding Knicks team, shouldn’t be the sole consideration for selecting him or not.
Thoughts? Questions? Concerns? Please leave a message after the beep.
Prez: Agree regarding his movement shooting. I just find it fascinating that someone who’s not a textbook sniper has that kind of off-ball movement in their arsenal, and think that has value in the league if a coach uses him in some decoy actions. But that is just an idea — I can’t recall someone who isn’t an absolute knockdown shooter used that way in the NBA. Given the way shot distribution and mathematics are trending, I wonder if the threshold shooting skill for that kind of movement should be lower than it is!
As for his handles, I actually think he has more ability to break down a set defense than he showed, although I agree that he doesn’t have the playmaking chops to capitalize for others on his team. I was curious what he played like in high school, since no big-time recruit lead scoring guard is used like Kyle Korver in high school. What I saw was much less running off screens, and a lot more of this:
While watching some college footage, one game stood out in this regard — the game Kentucky played at Auburn vs. Isaac Okoro and friends in February. Ashton Hagans, the guard I mentioned earlier who was the lead gun for Kentucky, got into foul trouble very early, necessitating Maxey taking on a bit more of the lead guard role. There were a few possessions, in the half court (!), where he was essentially un-guardable:
There were also a few possessions where you could see the limitations of a Maxey-Quickley-led offense — check the clip below. Ashton Hagans, for all his over-dribbling, is a pretty deliberate player who knows how to manipulate a defense and draw both attention and fouls. Without his help, and without someone filling the Maxey role of off-ball havoc-wreaker and decoy, sometimes the Kentucky offense stagnated, largely because Maxey and Quickley have only OK handle, and both stink at passing.
I think his ability to breakdown a defense and score is probably greater than anyone on our team right now (not saying much), but because he isn’t a gifted passer, he probably shouldn’t be the tip of the spear for NY. Even someone like DJ Augustin or Reggie Jackson would probably help “bump” secondary playmakers (RJB and Frank) and good-not-great breakdown scorers (Maxey) down into more appropriate roles. I do think whoever ends up with Maxey should explore letting him get busy and dance with the ball a little bit more than Calipari did, especially with high screens; but “point guard by committee” with him, RJB, and Frank is probably doomed to fail, barring a significant level up from Frank or RJB.
So I think it is safe to say we have a guy with some possible untapped scoring potential, both in terms of style and efficiency. Even reading that upside generously, he’s still at best a worse jump shooter than probably every lottery guard except for LaMelo. It is also safe to say he’s a good locker room guy, and a great “know your role” type given his A+ effort on defense AND offense, including within a brand new role with brand new teammates. I gotta say, for someone whose only near-elite skill is finishing, I am coming out of this a bit higher on Maxey than I was when we developed our big board, but the million dollar question remains:
Is it defensible to take him at No. 8 straight up over someone like Devin Vassell or Kira Lewis? Would that be disappointing? If so, what degree of trade down (i.e. to 10? to 12? to 14?) would make taking him palatable? I have my answers, but I am curious what you think.
Shwinnypooh: It’s defensible to take him over Team Boring captain Vassell, or Lewis if you’re buying that there is upside as a scorer that simply hasn’t been polished yet. The Knicks do have some inside intel on this given the hiring of Kenny Payne, AKA The Real KP, from Kentucky. Personally? I’m taking Vassell there and moving on with my draft night, but in a scenario where they traded down to the late lotto region and were able to pick up a nominal future asset for their trouble, I’d be happy to oblige and take Maxey.
What would that asset need to be? It’s very hard to say what a realistic return would be, given the less-than-impressive collection of obvious top talent in this year’s draft. I don’t think you’re going to be able to net a future first in a trade down this year, and with the Knicks already having the 27th and 38th selections in this draft, I’m skeptical they’d have much interest in adding another pick. What about a player, though?
Is trading the eighth pick to Orlando for 15 and Chuma Okeke on the table with the DeVos family’s pyramid scheme funded fortunes not quite as robust? (Ed. note: we’ll get legal on this, but Betsy’s possible violation of the Hatch Act may cause the purse strings to tighten up). Maybe Sacramento wants to move up in the draft, and are willing to trade Nemanja Bjelica‘s expiring to alleviate their front court logjam and shave money off their cap? I’m not sure if those trades would really be on the table, but conceptually those are the type of trade down returns that seem realistic this year.
Prez: I agree that there do not seem to be many obvious trade-down situations into the early teens. I don’t know who is on the table at eight that is uniquely beneficial to the teams picking 10th-15th, unless a team wants to be very aggressive for a home run swing like Pat Williams or Aleksej Pokusevski. No, I think more likely would be the Knicks making a play to trade up for another early teens pick. I think plenty of teams would prefer Kevin Knox to that pick, for example, just because of his size and shooting alone, even if everything else is completely hypothetical. Not saying the Knicks would do that, but I think there are avenues.
I also agree about taking Vassell over Maxey, but I could see a front office who strongly values ball handling and movement from every position having them much closer together than we do. After all, the NBA is trending toward rosters where more and more guys can shoot, drive, and kick. It’s lower on the list of Knicks’ weaknesses than shooting, but they are arguably the most putrid off-ball moving and cutting team in the league, and for all of his 3-point shooting glory, Vassell doesn’t really hold a candle to Maxey in that department. Kira Lewis Jr., on the other hand, is a bonafide point guard prospect, and the Knicks passing on him for Maxey would be a clear sign of their preference to sign or trade for a point guard of some kind to pair with their existing core rather than hand the keys to a young Padawan like Lewis Jr.
We have heard the whispers about Maxey drawing interest from Rose and friends, and certainly from his old buddy Coach Payne, like you mentioned. I suspect that if the Knicks chose Maxey, the reaction from press and fans alike would be more muted confusion than anything, but I wouldn’t be mad at it. A reach? Probably. But unreasonable? Hardly.
