What Knicks players — both new and entrenched — will benefit the most from Tom Thibodeau taking over as head coach? Collin Loring examines Obi Toppin, RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, and more.

With almost any change in life, there are those who benefit and those who suffer as a result.

Let’s call them winners and losers; yes, I know, I’m not reinventing the wheel here, but bear with me. This brings us (as all avenues here typically do) to the New York Knicks and their new head coach Tom Thibodeau.

In the world of sports, the changing of coaching staffs can lead to results ranging from cataclysmic to positively groundbreaking — for players, executives, and ultimately, the franchise as a whole. But not everyone will benefit from Thibodeau’s arrival in New York, even if it is, as many expect it to be, the spark this Knicks culture so desperately needs.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Knicks’ roster and see who stands to gain or lose the most in the wake of Thibs’ hiring.

Frank Ntilikina: Winner

There may not be a bigger winner as a result of Thibodeau’s arrival than Frank Ntilikina, New York’s stud defender whose jumper is all but nonexistent. The new head coach’s longtime emphasis on defense immediately makes Ntilikina a candidate for not only some regular minutes, but also potentially a second contract with the Knicks — something no rookie has received in New York since Charlie Ward in 1999. With point guard yet again one of the larger questions going into next season, I’d say the chances are higher than not that Thibodeau leads Ntilikina out of his shell, even if only up to his nose. Sure, New York has depth at the position thanks to their offseason signings of Austin Rivers and Elfrid Payton, but it’s been a while (if ever) since the Knicks allowed Ntilikina an actual fighting chance at the starting job. That alone paints the upcoming season as an oyster to which the 22-year old should be entitled full shucking privileges (should he want them).

A new head coach means yet another clean slate for the point guard, although he’s blowing through them faster than a cat goes through its nine lives playing in New York City traffic. If this season isn’t “the one” for Frank Ntilikina, it’ll be viewed as a larger testament to his level of talent and ultimate ceiling, not the abilities of Tom Thibodeau as a head coach.

Dennis Smith Jr.: Loser

If you’re not writing off Dennis Smith Jr.’s future in the NBA just yet, props to you. But after actively campaigning for him as a potential long-term fix at point guard ahead of last season, I’ve sold my shares on the island that is his potential stardom. The 22-year old guard has been on a steady decline since his rookie season with the Dallas Mavericks in 2017.

Thibodeau’s arrival means little for Smith directly, but could indirectly lead to his dismissal from the Knicks. Those steps are already being taken, with the aforementioned Payton and Rivers being brought on; two veterans at Smith’s position that will only serve as obstacles in his efforts to regain NBA relevancy. While it appears they won’t be trading for a veteran point guard after all (they were tied to Chris Paul up until the minute he was traded to the Phoenix Suns), they’re not signing guys meant to serve as Smith’s backups. I’d interpret this as a statement from Rose and company that the New York Knicks are prepared to move on from the young player that once headlined the return for Kristaps Porzingis via trade.

But that doesn’t mean his NBA journey is over, nor do I wish that for him. To loosely paraphrase Michael Scott from The Office, “When Mary was denied a room at the inn, Jesus was born. When Michael (Dennis Smith Jr. in this case) was denied a room at the inn, we don’t know what happens because that story hasn’t been told yet.”

So, who the hell knows?

It wouldn’t take a Jesus’s-birth-caliber miracle, but it’s a long shot nonetheless.

Austin Rivers: Winner

Austin Rivers is signing a three-year deal with the New York Knicks….

...and no, the year isn’t 2016; it’s still 2020, I’m afraid to say.

But there was a part of me that leapt with joy when Wojnarowski’s tweet came through my phone. Rivers is 28, sure, but he’s a hard-nosed combo guard who can space the floor and has played almost exclusively for winning basketball teams. For him to turn down potential offers from any number of contenders for three years with the New York Knicks? Let’s just say I’ll be spending the extra twenty or so dollars for a custom jersey of his, given the unlikelihood that he’s featured above any of the team’s prized youth. OK, my high school crush on Rivers aside…

Thibodeau loves his veterans. We’d all be better off just tattooing that on our forearms for the hundreds of times it’ll come up next season. Keep in mind he probably tried to sell the front office on a second coming of Derrick Rose before this; who he was no doubt prepared to hand the starting job, no matter how many intact kneecaps the former MVP showed up to camp with (if he showed). Rivers will be the favorite for the starting job ahead of opening night, and to be frank, it’s unlikely he’d be able to say that anywhere else in the NBA.

RJ Barrett: Winner

There’s nothing better for an up-and-coming talent than to have an established head coach early on in their career (especially after going through two, well, we’ll just call them unqualified candidates). RJ Barrett is only second to Ntilikina in this regard, because his NBA status was never in danger. Thibodeau is going to do wonders for Barrett and his defense, as well as help him elevate his already astute playmaking. The Knicks’ newest coach has a track record that should only inspire confidence for the 20-year-old’s future (see Butler, Jimmy for reference).

Thibodeau’s main priority will be the same as his predecessor’s: push New York back into NBA relevancy. But the rest of his agenda will revolve around giving RJ Barrett all the knowledge he’s gathered over the years, and helping to shape him into an All-Star. He’s the tallest and fullest flower of what we’ll call a garden of budding Knicks youth, so expect him to get the attention that status yields from his new head coach. Instead of playing second fiddle to Point Randle, Barrett could see himself rise above the rest this season, and claim his place as a number one option.

RJ Barrett’s knees: Loser

For those of you who complained about his workload at the start of last season, I’d close your eyes for this part of the movie.

Reggie Bullock: Winner

One incredibly consistent theme in Tom Thibodeau’s coaching career: he loves his veterans. I’ve got a strong feeling that 29-year-old, 3-and-D wing Reggie Bullock will quickly earn the trust of New York’s newest head coach. He missed a lot of last season (appeared in just 29 games), but even at $4.2 million, the Knicks likely didn’t have to think hard about his option for this season, as they’ve exercised it and are bringing him back. As a caveat, Marc Berman of the New York Post recently reported that Reggie Bullock was a “strong influence” on Barrett last season. So it’s a safe bet that if he’s good for his new head coach, and good for the team’s most important (and young/impressionable) talent, that the New York Knicks will be good to him.

Ignas Brazdeikis: Loser

For a guy who was drafted in the second round of last year's draft, who also played for the NBA’s sixth-worst team, Ignas Brazdeikis didn’t see a lot of playing time last season. It’s just a tad confusing, considering the biggest draw to him ahead of the draft was his scoring ability and 3-point shot. The New York Knicks were the league’s 29th worst scoring club last year at 105.8 points per game and ranked dead last in 3-pointers made per game at 9.6.

Yet the young, unproven talent perfectly capable of providing a scoring punch sat on the bench, making just nine appearances in the regular season. I can’t tell you whose minutes he should have eaten out of last season, but I can’t come to grips with his poor attendance.

Brazdeikis could potentially see an opportunity to earn a larger role under Thibodeau, but the fact of the matter is he could also be so far removed from the scene that New York’s newest head coach has him somewhere between summer vacation plans and his next haircut on the priority list. I have no doubt Brazdeikis will inherit the cursed mantle that was once Damyean Dotson’s, and become a fan favorite that can seemingly never get on the court. Let the #FreeIggy chants and tweets be heard/read in the highest offices at Madison Square Garden.

Obi Toppin: Winner

There are a number of reasons why Obi Toppin was always going to be the pick for the New York Knicks at eighth overall, whether we as fans wanted to see them or not. For starters, the forward is an absolute man child in comparison to the other prospects, patiently waiting for Thibodeau and company to let him loose on the “middle school” defenders of the NBA. It’s hard to say whether or not there was a more NBA-ready prospect in this year’s class, especially in the top-10. But we also said that about Barrett, so what the hell do I know?

Toppin’s biggest weakness isn’t hidden like Achilles of Greek mythology. No, it’s going to be blown up, stretched out, and taped from corner to corner of the basketball court for all to see in his opening weeks in the NBA. The man is an almost absolute liability on the defensive end, which is why I personally am waking up every morning thankful for Mitchell Robinson these days. Still, for that to be his largest weakness, starting your career off under a guy who’s going to make you earn it on defense like Thibs is the accountability all rookies need. Expect the Knicks’ newest rookie to be a starter from day one, and challenged with guarding some of the bigger, more versatile bigs of today’s game. While the various coaching staffs have allowed teammate Ntilikina to remain inside of his shell the last three seasons; there’s too much at stake for Thibodeau and company this year regarding Obi. They’ll be breaking his shell open on day one, denying him the luxury of patience or a soft and cuddly introduction to the league.

Obi Toppin’s Knees: Loser

“Load management,” anyone?

Julius Randle: Loser

Look, I was all in on offensive hub Julius Randle going into last season. And I’m not going to say he can’t play that role — he just can’t (and likely won’t) play that role for these New York Knicks.

Randle’s days with the team have appeared numbered since the conclusion of the regular season. His salary makes him a near lock to be a crucial piece in any trade for a star-level player. If he isn’t traded, however, Thibodeau may challenge Randle to slowly shed the point forward brainwashing job last year’s staff put him through. The 25-year-old is no doubt an NBA talent, but having him shoulder the entire responsibility for playmaking is a recipe for disaster. Thibodeau may help Randle rediscover the NBA player hiding under his thick skin, which could lead to a trade, and a better situation for him overall.

You’re never going to rule out a guy who’s nearly posting a double-double (19 and nine) nightly, even on a team as bad as New York. It will be one of Thibodeau and the coaching staff’s many jobs to help refine Randle’s game back into the land of the net positive this year. Whether it happens or not could very well be up to the player, but if it becomes too daunting a task, don’t be surprised to see New York ship him out at the trade deadline or even prior.

Kevin Knox: Winner

I still believe in the flashes we saw from Kevin Knox in his Summer League debut, which today seems like 30 years ago. This may be surprising to some of you considering my “glass half empty” view on Dennis Smith Jr., but remember, Knox just turned 21. And we’ve seen more encouraging signs from him than the aforementioned point guard, who’s only declined.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Thibs is obsessing over finding “Summer League Knox.” Hell, that achievement alone could very well vault him into the Mount Rushmore of New York Knicks coaches. Knox needs to be reminded that he does often look like an NBA player, no matter what the statistics and advanced analytics say, even if only in the confidence and ferocity department. He was just 19 years old then, but his performances in the Las Vegas scrimmages had the Knicks and their entire fanbase drunk with fandom, thinking they’d taken the steal of the draft at ninth overall.

Knox was the ninth overall pick of his draft class and since, has consistently been one of the worst players in the league on an annual basis. Whether that’s due to the ineptitude of those in charge of his situation will likely be determined this year, his first under a legitimate head coach.

Mitchell Robinson: Winner

Remember the whispers recommending New York look into Mitchell Robinson’s value on the trade market? Consider that all but thrown out of the window . Thibodeau doesn’t care if Robinson has a jump shot — it’s his rebounding efforts and blocking ability that will earn the new head coach’s trust. Given that he’s so damn good at both of those, expect extension talk surrounding Robinson to resurface before any kind of trade conjecture. Thibs often looked to his bigs to anchor defensive efforts in Chicago — Carlos Boozer, Pau Gasol, New York fan favorite Joakim Noah, and Taj Gibson (once a Knick, always a Knick) — and he’s going to have those same conversations with Robinson ahead of next season. It seems worth mentioning that Joakim Noah finished fourth in MVP voting in 2014. Under Thibodeau, he and that Bulls team limited their opponents to just 91.8 points per game, cementing themselves as the NBA’s best defense. Expect the leap we’ve been counting on Mitchell Robinson taking to transpire at some point this season. His newest head coach is not only a drill sergeant on the defensive end, but has a vast history with talented (traditional) centers.