With or without you: the Knicks face a decision at center this summer
Mitchell Robinson’s injury reinforces the uncertainty of his Knicks future & its tie-in to Isaiah Hartenstein’s
“It ain’t show friends, it’s show business.” Come this summer, that quote might as well be painted on the walls of Leon Rose’s office. He and the New York Knicks face a number of big decisions after a season that’s exceeded expectations ends – the excess is ongoing, with the team up 2-0 in their second-round series with the Indiana Pacers. First and foremost will be addressing the fast-approaching fork in the road at the five.
Mitchell Robinson, after a 50-game absence in the regular season with an ankle injury and a season-ending, Joel Embiid-sized aggravation of that same injury, heads into the summer facing questions about his durability. Questions about his fit, too, on a team that’s continually adapting to today’s pace and dissolved positions. Isaiah Hartenstein, otherwise known as Nikola Jokić of the East™, stepped into the starting role after a five-game audition from Jericho Sims, a successful succession for the player and the team: He leads the playoffs in field goal percentage and no player has totaled more blocks (it’s a three-way tie between Embiid, Hartenstein and Franz Wagner). Given that the other two have been eliminated, this fruit felt free for the picking!
Hartenstein’s assist percentage has jumped from 13.5 to 17.3, joining Embiid, Wagner and Jokić as the only big men to hit that mark; he’s one of 10 players in the postseason to have tallied 80+ points, 50+ rebounds and 25+ assists. In other words, Hartenstein has brought a two-way element to New York’s center position like we haven’t seen since Patrick Ewing. One that cannot be parted with.
Which brings us back to Robinson, the Knicks’ longest-tenured player and vital to Tom Thibodeau’s integration period with the team, establishing the defensive versatility and physicality that saw New York finish top-5 in defensive rating his first season. Since then, things have been less consistent, as has Robinson. The Knicks finished 11th in Thibodeau’s second season and 14th last season before rebounding to eighth this year.
A look at Robinson’s games played in that span:
2020-21: 31 games, 29 started
2021-22: 72 games, 62 started
2022-23: 59 games, 58 started
2023-24: 31 games, 21 started
I mention this not to discredit the big fella, but more to question how integral he’s been to what New York has been trying to accomplish under Thibodeau. And a reminder: 2020-21 was 72 games, meaning Robinson’s 31 are nearly half the season. On a team where Elfrid Payton was given a lot of credit for team defense, Mitch was leaps and bounds their best player on that end of the floor. (This will only increase in comedic value the further we distance ourselves from it)
Robinson has the makings of a top-5 center of old – pre-2010, for those old enough to remember. He’s paid like a top-20 center in today’s NBA, his $15 million a year tied for 19th at the position. The only two pivots who make more and don’t start are Isaiah Stewart, whose deal is a byproduct of one of the worst front offices making decisions that have contributed to an even worse roster, and Zach Collins, who drew the short straws for both injury playing for the team that just drafted basketball Jesus at the same position, Victor Wembanyama.
Hartenstein’s next deal projects to pay him $13-$14 million annually, according to payroll guru Bobby Marks back in March. But if I guarantee you Hartenstein will not walk out of free agency making less annually than Robinson. And hopefully he’s not walking out, but walking back in – by all accounts, including word of mouth from the man himself, Hartenstein wants to stay in New York, provided they pay him what he deserves: “I love it here, and hopefully, we’ll figure something out, but at the end of the day, business is business.”
None of this is a reason to part with Robinson this summer, nor to avoid including him in trades to upgrade a roster brimming with NBA Finals potential. If you would have told me back in September that the Knicks would be up 2-0 in the conference semis without Julius Randle having played a minute in the postseason, I’d ask how much the team gave up for Luka Dončić. New York is aware of Robinson’s gravity when he’s on the floor, as are their opponents. But his team is aware so they can adjust when he travels too far off the reservation, passing the ball to rope him back in like an astronaut untethered in the vacuum of space.
That’s in contrast to Hartenstein, who while not gifted with the full extension of Robinson’s 7-foot-4 wingspan moves as well on and off the ball as any center, able to direct and even initiate the offense, not just play within it. The Knicks posted a 122.3 offensive rating with Hartenstein on the floor over 3,793 regular-season possessions. That number fell to 118.9 with Robinson over 1,510. This season, 14 centers recorded more than 175 assists. Among them, Hartenstein ranked:
1st in field goal percentage
1st in true shooting percentage
1st in effective field goal percentage
2nd in offensive rebounds
4th in blocks
4th in steals
And for all he offers on offense, Hartenstein’s usage rate for the season was 12 – dead last among those 14 bigs. This not only implies room for growth, but highlights the untapped potential of more big-man initiation – not only from him, but the entire offense. Targeting a second center who’s flashed such an ability might help to expand the team’s horizons into prime Golden State Warriors territory.
The problem is none of those 14 bigs compare to Robinson’s defensive nose on the ball, his shocking, shot-blocking length that’s haunted opponents out to the 3-point line. No center brought in to replace Mitch will be as funny a quote, either. But that’s what comes with moving on. No one’s fate is sealed. And there’ll be a spotlight the size of the Bat-signal on Hartenstein throughout the playoffs.
Robinson’s injury doesn’t signal the end of his time with the team that drafted him, but it makes it vastly more complex to picture him returning and playing behind a freshly-paid (potentially fresh off a championship) Hartenstein next year. I don’t know if the decision is as black and white as I make it sound, typing away from the comfort of my bed, 709 miles south of Madison Square Garden. But amidst a playoff run that seems capped in potential, Leon Rose and company are no doubt already thinking about this summer and the most blatant avenues to upgrading this roster. As much and as well as the Villanova Power of Friendship is leading the Knicks, this franchise is, at its core, a business. And the show must go – Mitch or no Mitch, Hartenstein or no Hartenstein, and sooner than later almost certainly one without the other.