2021 Knicks Free Agency Profile: Cam Payne

If the bigger name point guards are all off the board for the Knicks in free agency, could Cam Payne present a solid consolation prize as a late-blooming guard with scoring and transition appeal, fresh off a Finals run?

Sam: Point guard. A position that has challenged the New York Knicks since the days of Walt “Clyde” Frazier, and the 2020-21 season was no different — an extremely successful season, but one that was plagued with bad starting point guard play. Unless you lived under a rock, you would know that Elfrid Payton was the starting point guard for 63 games and was absolutely abysmal. The team won 41 games in spite of his play thanks to the midseason acquisition of Derrick Rose and emergence of rookie Immanuel Quickley. 

Because of this, we are all left to wonder what this team could look like under the control of an upgrade at the 1 spot. 

There are a bunch of names to consider this offseason whether it’s through trade or free agency, but arguably none are more interesting than Cam Payne. 

Payne, initially known more for his dance moves on the sideline rather than for anything he did on the court, has transformed himself into one of the best backup point guards in the league. Last season he averaged 8.4 points and 3.6 assists per game in 18 minutes on 48% from the field and 44% from 3-point range, which worked out to 16.8 points and 7.2 assists per 36 minutes. 

As good as his regular season was, the playoffs are where Payne really turned heads. Although the numbers regressed across the board percentage-wise, he put up some signature performances. Of note, in Game 2 vs. the Lakers in the first round, he put up 19 points and seven assists in 32 minutes of action before fouling out. In Game 2 vs. the Clippers in the Western Conference Finals, with Chris Paul sitting out, Payne put up 29 points and nine assists with no turnovers in 37 minutes of action. 

Adding an emerging talent at the point guard spot at age 26 could only help the Knicks. He adds some dynamism, which the Knicks have lacked at the point of attack. One thing that has drawn my eye to Payne is his insanely quick first step.

He was able to get whatever he wanted in the Clippers series before an ankle injury took him out for a game. Having quickness that can bend the defense would create advantages for Julius Randle and RJ Barrett. In the clip below, you can see Payne drawing Ayton’s defender just enough to open him up so exactly this with his first step. 

Little things like this have been missing from the Knicks’ point of attack consistently over the years.

Shwinnypooh: I really like Cam Payne and agree with you that his speed adds something that the Knicks have lacked from the point of attack and in general for a long time. Just looking at last season, the Knicks played at the slowest pace in the league despite having guys who would benefit from more open court opportunities like Randle, RJ, Obi Toppin, Mitchell Robinson, etc.

Hell, even watching the Suns in their WCF series against the Clippers, you could see how there were situations where his ability to push the tempo benefited them more than even Chris Paul’s brilliance in the half court. And that’s in comparison to “the Point God.” When you think about how much the Knicks struggled to get any easy offense last year, in large part due to their plodding nature, it’s clear what benefits he could provide.

However, there are definitely some concerns. His playoff performance at various stages was inspiring, but how well would he hold up as a full-time starter playing 30 minutes a night in New York? While Randle and Barrett can certainly provide some relief in that regard in the starting lineup, he’d have to take on a larger share of playmaking duties than he was responsible for in Phoenix alongside Paul and Devin Booker, not to mention he’d be consistently going up against starters rather than feasting on bench units.

Would his relatively solid defense hold up over more minutes? Can he manage to find the balance between his scoring and distributing while keeping his scorers happy?

Just as important, are we worried at all about the potential for regression from Payne as a shooter? He shot 53.2% from midrange and 44% from three, including 44.7% on 2.4 attempts from above the break per game. So much of the plus value he provided for the Suns this season stems from how well he shot the ball. If those percentages come down from “scorching hot” to just “good,” are we sure the sum total of his parts is equivalent to a starting point guard worth an eight-figure-per-season multi-year commitment?

Sam: That is one of the biggest concerns when evaluating talent in different contexts. You have his play from the bubble run, then you have a larger sample over the course of a 72-game season largely played in empty or sparsely filled arenas, and then you have his playoff run. Finally, you need to take into account his role. 

In Phoenix, he was tasked with facing off against opposing teams’ second units and he thrived in that role. 

In New York, he would be tasked with larger offensive responsibility, on a less talented team, although he’d have the opportunity to play off of Randle and RJ. This past season, we saw a lot of possessions have Randle doing a lot of ball handling for kick-outs to the corners and No. 6 standing there, ready to brick shots. 

Elfrid Payton shot an abysmal 30.3% from 3 on 1.4 catch-and-shoot attempts per game during the regular season. Now replace that with the 48.9% from 3 on 1.6 catch-and-shoot attempts per game that Payne contributed this season. It makes a huge difference, as the defense wouldn’t have the luxury of ignoring him. 

Again, there is cause for concern, because he shot the ball so well and never had before. Previous to this season, the best he’d shot from three was 38.5% on 3.6 attempts per game in 2017-2018 on an offensively inept Chicago Bulls team. On a Knicks team looking to build off of recent playoff success, he’d have to prove these improvements were no fluke. Payne has seemingly found himself offensively and knows what works for him and what does not, and with Thibs’ history of getting a lot out of scoring point guards, it could be a good fit. 

As for numbers in regard to a contract, my estimate for any point guard being used as a stopgap is a two-year deal. I do not think this front office would want to commit long-term money to anybody they do not deem the “point guard of the future.” My ideal deal for Payne would be around two years, $25 million. 

Phoenix has his Early Bird rights and can sign him to a deal worth up to four years and $47 million, so any deal the Knicks offered would have to be upwards of $10 million starting salary, and I think two years for $25 million is good value for a stopgap who you’re still looking to evaluate within a certain context. 

Shwinnypooh: Yeah, that does seem to be the price point where he’ll probably land. Phoenix is capped in terms of what they can offer, and with contracts for Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges coming down the pipeline in addition to a likely new deal for Chris Paul this offseason, I’m skeptical they’ll show much enthusiasm for keeping Payne.

And if you look at the broader point guard  market around the league, it’s hard to see what teams would make Payne a significant offer in free agency beyond mid-level exception type of money. There’s a number of better options at the position for teams that are looking to make a significant upgrade, and even if they miss out on the premium guys, what team is willing to tie themselves down to Payne for three or four years at an eight figure number?

For the Knicks, he’s less of a risk than almost any other team, because the bar is so low after starting Elf last season. Not only is Payne just a flat-out superior player on either side of the floor, the fit alongside Randle and Barrett is so much better, as you pointed out, with his shooting prowess.

I don’t think the Knicks would be comfortable going any longer than two years for him, but if they can’t land one of the big fish in free agency, Payne would represent a solid compromise. He’s entering his prime years, and certainly could still have some hidden upside as a late bloomer after bombing out in his first few seasons with Oklahoma City and Chicago.

Sam: Yes, I feel like we saw a glimpse of that hidden upside with Phoenix, a place with stability that provided him with a consistent role. New York would be a great place for him to come and hit that ceiling. 

Sometimes after so many years in the league, a player’s best friend is stability and structure. We just saw that with Randle, and that could continue to be the case with Payne. 

The Knicks should look to strike while the iron is hot with Payne and see what he has moving forward at the point guard spot.