How the Knicks’ handling of 2021 free agency could affect 2022 and beyond
The Knicks come into free agency armed with a league-leading $50 million-plus of cap space. Is a spending spree incoming? Will they attempt to play it safe for a second straight year? Should they have their eyes on Bradley Beal and Zach LaVine in the 2022 free agent class?
Folks, the moment we’ve been waiting for is almost here. The draft is in the rearview mirror and free agency is about to be one wild ride. I’m feeling anxious and excited, all the while channeling my inner Michael Scott.
It’s no secret that the Knicks are exploring different avenues to acquire a star. Hell, every team is looking to add another star to their team. What we don’t know is if the Knicks plan on acquiring a star in free agency, in a trade, or even via both channels. Fortunately, the results of this summer’s transactions will serve as an indicator for what’s next in 2022. Assuming the Knicks intend to keep Julius Randle and RJ Barrett long term, 2022 is the last offseason New York can create max space without trading Robinson (next contract looming) or any of the rookie players on the roster. After that, acquiring a star gets a bit more complicated, but still feasible.
Let’s assume that the Knicks enter free agency this year by keeping everyone under contract, picking up Mitchell Robinson’s team option (which they did), and renouncing the rights to every free agent they have. This would mean the Knicks have Randle, Barrett, Kevin Knox, Obi Toppin, Luca Vildoza, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, and Robinson on their roster. That’s eight players with seven spots remaining and around $51.4 million in cap space this offseason.
If the Knicks enter the next offseason with Randle and Robinson’s cap holds along with Barrett, Toppin, Vildoza, Quickley, and Grimes on the books, they will have an estimated $52.6 million. Deuce McBride’s undetermined contract and New York’s 2022 pick are also not being factored into this amount, which would likely push the total cap space closer to $49 million. Any multi-year contract that’s fully guaranteed signed in 2021 will naturally impact 2022. How much can the Knicks spend before the numbers get too tight? How much does it matter? It’s time to explore this delicate balance.
There are three stars who are currently projected to enter free agency in 2022: Stephen Curry, Bradley Beal, and Zach LaVine. For just one brief moment, let’s cast aside whether or not any of these players would sign in New York. Each player is eligible for a different amount given their tenure throughout the league. Curry can earn 105% more than the salary he’ll have in 2021, which means his 2022 max is guaranteed to be $48 million. Beal is entering his 10th year in the league, which means that he will be eligible for the 35% max contract in 2022, which is projected as $40.5 million. LaVine will have eight years of experience under his belt and can therefore secure the 30% max contract, which is projected as $34.7 million. (The reason the Beal and LaVine numbers are projected is that they’re based on the salary cap, which could increase.)
So right off the bat, if the Knicks were to exclusively sign players to one-year contracts, they would enter the 2022 offseason able to pay all three players their respective max deals. Now comes the cold water: The Knicks are unlikely to only sign players to one-year deals, which will impact Curry’s maximum. But hey, maybe the Warriors won’t even give Curry that max! Regardless, the effects of any long-term salary on the books when it would even come to Curry are clear. And Curry’s likely to re-sign in Golden State anyway.
How about Beal? The difference between who the Knicks have under contract for 2022 (that $49 million amount) and Beal’s max is approximately $9 million. This is where the idea of Terrence Ross, who was reported as a potential Knicks target, is intriguing. If the Knicks were to acquire Ross and his $11.5 million salary in 2022 and pick between 24th and 30th in the draft next year, New York would fall anywhere from $144,000 to $417,000 short of paying Beal a max contract. The hope would be that Beal could take the slightest of haircuts to make the math work. If the Knicks traded out of the draft again or traded down to the second round while netting at least one other asset, then Beal could fit snugly into the open space.
Once over the cap, the Knicks could then package Ross’ money and some of their young talent — including Toppin, due to his salary — for a legitimate point guard. This is also why the Knicks are unlikely to extend Robinson this summer, as his cap hold would basically mean New York couldn’t add any 2022 salary this offseason and sign Beal outright.
We can also deduce that spending more than around $11.5 million means there is at least one personnel decision on the horizon. If the Knicks want to give a player around $18 million in 2022 salary, they can do that. However, it just means that they will have to do something like non-guarantee Vildoza’s contract and trade Toppin if they were able to add Beal. One option could be packaging next year’s pick and another player in a trade for future draft assets, while another option could be sending those assets in a sign-and-trade, which quite frankly just seems wasteful.
So the bottom line with Beal is that giving a player this summer a guaranteed salary of $11.5 million, $15 million, or even $20 million is possible while still being able to make room for the current Wizard next summer. It’s just that New York then has to create sufficient room, which would mean dealing key salaries that would be better off being sent out in a trade for another player to be added around Beal, Randle, Barrett, Robinson, and whichever players are left on the roster.
Then we have LaVine. Seeing as how LaVine’s max will be a little less than $6 million under what Beal will be making, we can do the same exercise with LaVine that we did with Beal, just adding another $6 million. That $11.5 million Ross contract that seemed like a financial limit? Now we’re talking about that limit being about $17 million instead. Non-guarantee Vildoza? Closer to $19 million in space when considering the roster charge. Trade Toppin’s salary away too? Now it’s about $23.5 million.
Similar to before, the issue isn’t “Can the Knicks pay a player this year and then max LaVine?”, it’s “How much can the Knicks pay a player this year before having to then trim the fat by making more difficult decisions?” And to be clear, there’s nothing difficult about saying goodbye to a player like Vildoza. You’re just better off using his salary to trade for an upgrade after signing a star than by non-guaranteeing him to sign a star and then not trading for another one.
It’s how the Knicks could potentially maneuver if they were to pay a player like Kyle Lowry or Chris Paul upwards of those amounts, which they will absolutely receive from some teams this summer, that’s so curious to me. Assuming the Knicks were to build with Randle, Barrett, and Paul/Lowry in mind, this would essentially require the Knicks to trade all of their young talent for a star to make the math work. Quite frankly, I’m not sure who that star would even be.
If you’re Paul, you’re not leaving the Suns for that situation unless Phoenix lowballs you to an egregious level. And with Lowry, if a team like New Orleans or Dallas is willing to pay over $30 million a season for three years, and the Knicks are willing to match that, then New York’s options to add talent around either player are more limiting. You’d then need to acquire a non-star wing this summer, enter 2022 over the cap, and try to make a big trade or a sign-and-trade for a star by using said non-star wing’s salary as trade filler. Yet if you sign-and-trade for a star, you’re hard-capped and you’re probably very close to the tax apron (which you cannot exceed at any point) because you’re getting that star while re-signing Randle and Robinson. In other words, it’s complicated with several hurdles.
Of course, the Knicks could continue to once again pay players on one-year deals and one-year deals only. Here’s a fun fact, though: Players like job security. Overpaying for fewer years (i.e. one) of team control might not appeal to the free agents you’re interested in, and then you’re left scrambling to find players who work with your plan and are good enough.
With New York trading out and down in the draft, it has reduced costs to the point where there’s more leeway with adding a free agent on a long-term deal. Would trying to lure a player like Duncan Robinson away from Miami or Evan Fournier for a starting salary of $18 million be a death knell in the pursuit of a star? Probably not — it just means that tough decisions have to be made. Yet you’re not attracting a player like Beal if your team isn’t good, and your team can’t be good unless you sign talented players to make you better. And you likely can’t sign talented players to make you better unless you can offer them contracts they want.
It’s absolutely fine if the Knicks are adding some form of 2022 salary to their books this summer. The logical assumption is that this was always going to be the case. My biggest apprehension has been how New York finds the right balance of adding talent while maintaining flexibility, which seems to be the team’s prerogative. Similar to with the draft, how the Knicks maneuver in free agency will set the tone for next offseason and beyond. And somehow, I’m even more anxious and excited than I was before.
