2021 Knicks Free Agency Profile: Kyle Lowry
The Knicks have needed a strong presence at point guard forever. Could a 35-year-old division rival be the shot in the arm to take the newly-revitalized Knicks to another level?
The 2020-21 season was a massive success for the New York Knickerbockers. No, seriously. The Knicks had an unequivocally successful campaign in the 21st century. They really did it buoyed by a rejuvenated and reformed version of Julius Randle, a second year leap from RJ Barrett, and unexpectedly consistent and solid production from veterans and youngsters alike on the roster such as Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley, Reggie Bullock, Mitchell Robinson, etc.
One of the more interesting elements of the Knicks’ unexpected success is that unlike most playoff teams, the roster isn’t moored to many players. The Knicks only have five players guaranteed under contract for next season — Randle, Barrett, Quickley, Obi Toppin, and Kevin Knox. Everybody else is a free agent, leaving the Knicks with over $50 million in cap space.
Last year, with a similar amount of cap flexibility at their disposal when entering free agency, the Knicks played things tight rather than making any big splashes. They waited out the initial mad dash of free agency and instead chose to sign low-risk, low-money, one-year deals with veterans as well as use their cap space to participate in a couple of salary dumps for picks.
That was arguably the most prudent option they could choose. They simply had far more questions coming off of a mess of a season. This year, though, the Knicks, while not tied down to many pieces, have a clearer idea of what they need to make the next step. The regular season template of using Randle as a point forward, with Barrett providing a capable Robin to his Batman, while Rose, Quickley, and Alec Burks provided plenty of firepower off the bench, proved to be very successful.
However, in the playoffs as the Atlanta Hawks loaded up without mercy on Randle, Barrett struggled, and the limitations of the Knicks’ ancillary pieces was laid bare. A painful lesson was learned, but one that in many ways simplifies what the front office must prioritize moving forward. The Knicks need more shot creation, and, for the 78th season running, have a desperate need for a quality lead guard.
Fortunately, for the Knicks, there are some enticing options that will be on the market this summer, and among the most prominent names is Kyle Lowry. The 35 year old enters free agency after enduring a turbulent season with the Toronto Raptors in which he remained productive averaging 17.2 points, 7.3 assists, and 5.4 rebounds on 43.6/39.6/87.5 splits.
With Toronto in flux it seemed he would be dealt at the trade deadline, but none of his suitors could meet the asking price, and instead he will now hit free agency as perhaps the most likely point guard upgrade available to teams looking to upgrade. Is there a chance the Knicks could use the cap space they have hoarded for two years running now, to finally pull the trigger and make a multi-year commitment in order to get Randle, Barrett, and co. the high-level guard play they need to make the next step? To discuss the possibility I am joined by my good friend and avid Twitter Spaces partner, Collin Loring.
Collin: Shwinn! Whaddup, whaddup, whaddup? So, I’ve admittedly enjoyed these NBA Finals more than most, but I’ll be happy when they’re over. Simply because I’m growing increasingly impatient waiting for the offseason to kick off, one where I anticipate the New York Knicks will for the first time in a long time, do something big. Perhaps that’s Kyle Lowry. The 35-year old seems a perfect fit for everything this team was doing last year, as well as how they’re hoping to improve that product ahead of opening night next season. But as always, I think this conversation starts with the price tag, right? I feel like if the Knicks are to pull this off, it’s going to have to be about both the fit/opportunity and the contract, not one or the other. How much are you comfortable with New York paying for Lowry? Do we think he says yes to a one-plus-one at $60-million? Is that a ridiculous amount to pay for a guy going into year sixteen? Or are you confident he can be our version of Chris Paul? With teams like the Chicago Bulls, New Orleans Pelicans, and Philadelhpia 76ers interested (but also several steps away from being able to open up the cap space required) I think that’s how the New York Knicks will separate themselves in this sweepstakes for the greatest Toronto Raptor of all time.
Shwinnypooh: It’s no secret that I really like Kyle Lowry and believe he’d be a great fit on the Knicks both for his on court ability, which is still very good, and for what he brings with his leadership and intangibles. This is a guy who bounced around a bit before landing in Toronto. Then with the Raptors he had to endure numerous playoff heartache and failure before cracking through in 2019 to win a championship. There’s a lot that guys that the Knicks core players like Randle, Barrett, Quickley, etc. can learn from having a dude like that in the locker room.
That said, he’s 35 and has had more injury issues over the last couple of seasons than before. If you bring him in it’s important to have a plan to manage his minutes more judiciously than happened in Toronto so that you can maximize his time on the court.
All of that needs to factor into the type of contract you’re willing to hand him, because I don’t think a one-year balloon payment gets it done for him, but you also don’t want to hamstring yourself too much on a multi-year deal. The most mooted reports say he’s looking for a 2-year, $50 million deal. There’s definitely plenty of demand out there for him, so it’s plausible that the Knicks would have to go over that mark. What would you say to a 3 year, $80 million deal with a team option on the 3rd season? That pays him slightly over the $50 million mark he’s looking for over the first two years, but getting that 3rd year option has some appeal, no?
Collin: Something about the recent report that Leon Rose and the Knicks front office might attempt to placehold cap space in advance of the 2022 free agent market gives me pause. It’s almost as if they might prefer to overpay for one year of Kyle Lowry (or even offer him a hefty one-plus-one) over giving him two guaranteed years. Personally, I would jump all over a three-year, $80-million deal, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that was an unpopular deal among members of the Knicks front office. But that leads me into what I think should be the next point of discussion: teams who have done these deals in (very) recent history are thriving. The Phoenix Suns just made the playoffs for the first time in over 10 years and went all the way to the NBA Finals. It was also Chris Paul’s first season with the team. The Utah Jazz were the best team in the NBA (record wise) this season, in what was Mike Conley’s second year with the team. I think there’s a real argument that New York could see just as much success as the two aforementioned teams with the addition of a guard like Lowry. He’s a proven winner who brings it on both sides of the ball, and his best basketball isn’t yet behind him at age 35.
Shwinnypooh: It’s dangerous to make like-for-like comparison when there are so many additional variables that contributed to the success the Suns and Jazz had. The presence and continued growth of younger stars like those teams had in Devin Booker and Donovan Mitchell certainly made things easier, but the Knicks do have an All-NBA forward in Julius Randle, and RJ Barrett on the wing who made significant strides in his 2nd season. Is there a world where adding a high-level primary who can add value as a shot creator and playmaker opens up even more easy opportunities for them to capitalize and push the team’s baseline forward? Absolutely.
The risk, clearly, revolves around his age. And it’s not one without merits. In the last 3 seasons Lowry has remained a high minutes player averaging at least 34 minutes per game. However, he’s been increasingly prone to missing games over that time sitting out 17, 14, and 26 over those years respectively. At age-35 his minutes will need to be managed more carefully than he was during his peak years. Can the Knicks get more games out of him by reducing his minutes per game load? Could the continued development of RJ Barrett and Julius Randle and ability to take on increased offensive responsibility allow him to reserve his energy more judiciously?
There’s also the question of whether he’s losing a step or not. He recorded a career low percentage of total field goal attempts (14.9%) at the rim last season, but he finished them at a career high mark (68.5%). Contrastingly he recorded his highest number of drives per game this past season (10.7) than he had since the 17/18 season. In addition to what he’s capable of going downhill he provides a credible pull-up shooting from distance as well as an off ball floor spacer.
Isn’t this exactly the profile of guard you’d ideally want to put alongside Julius and RJ?
Collin: I think I’m less making a like-for-like comparison to Phoenix or Utah and more so implying that teams will be inclined to make similar deals for aging point guards based on how those situations turned out, yeah? Like obviously Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, and Mike Conley are all three different point guards (and all possible free agents this summer), but when other teams are finding such grand success both as a team and among their roster individuals as a whole, smart teams should, and likely will, follow suit, barring any extenuating circumstances.
In a vacuum, Lowry provides this version of the New York Knicks almost everything they're missing, and without overcompensation or too much altering of their current formula. It’s the decision making, maturity, and overall experience in the playoffs (hi, for those at home not recalling, he is an NBA champion) that makes him such an invaluable addition.
A few fun numbers, courtesy of Stathead.
Lowry posted a 31.8 assist percentage last season, on just 21.4 percent usage. That pass percentage ranked 17th overall out of all players in 2020-2021, but only three posted better usage numbers, and among them, one isn’t an actual point guard: Draymond Green (36.4/13.1), T.J. McConnell (34.3/15.3), and Ricky Rubio (33.3/16.0).
This incites some form of optimism in the “Can Julius Randle be Julius Randle next to starting caliber point guard?” department, no? It goes without saying, but Lowry is also the oldest of those four, by a wide margin, and he did this in just 46 games played.
And the three-point shooting, yes the three-point shooting. Once Lowry has his first game in a Knicks uniform with six made threes I’m agreeing to never mention Elfrid Payton ever again.
Don’t get me wrong, the 35-year old isn’t Stephen Curry by any means.
But he still managed to knock down almost 40% (.396) of his 7.2 three-point attempts nightly last season. Only 13 players accomplished those numbers last season, and Lowry is only one of four on that list to not make the playoffs (Buddy Hield, Stephen Curry, Zach LaVine).
Fun fact: no Knicks player (minimum 41 games played) has ever registered such a season.
How about we make Lowry the first?
What New York needs is a shot maker and facilitator at point guard. Kyle Lowry may be the best one that’s actually on the market (and it’s not particularly close). But he’s also going to be very headstrong in his search for a team that can provide him all of a multi-year contract for big dollars and a shot at another championship. I think the Knicks check both (all three?) boxes.
Even if he’s slowing down, there’s an argument that this is the moment for the New York Knicks to do the same; with their newfound relevancy, the All-NBA rise of Julius Randle, and most importantly, the development of future Hall of Famer Rowan Barrett Jr.
Shwinnypooh:
I’m 100% with you on all of that. He fits the bill in virtually every way we’ve been pining for from a starting point guard forever. Are there things to be concerned about? Yeah, sure, but short of signing an in-prime established superstar there’s going to be some level of risk with anybody you sign.
The Knicks have been hoarding their cap space and rolling the flexibility over to keep their powder dry for a player worth tying themselves to. Lowry is worth making that type of commitment to.
