2021 Knicks Free Agency Profile: Lonzo Ball
Both capable of making the Knicks better now AND in the future, should Lonzo Ball be more of a target? More importantly, is he a point guard, or more of a wing?
Drew: Derek, it looks like Shwin bailed out on me. So instead of a Lonzo Player Hater’s Ball, it looks like we are going to have an actual, nuanced conversation about a player who I believe we both like, yet have some reservations about. Well, at least I have some reservations about.
Before I even dive into my favorites like multi-year RAPM and scatter plots, I want to know where you stand on the role Lonzo should be in if he were to play with the Knickerbockers of New York. I see Ball as an upgrade to the Reggie Bullock role on the team, meaning a “3-and-D” wing who isn’t the primary ball handler/playmaker, but has definitive plus passing, plus shooting, and overall basketball IQ. Basically, the guard form of Joe Ingles. And if that’s the player archetype, do you actually spend somewhere near $20 million per year — more than Julius Randle’s current average annual value — on an offensive connector?
Derek: Drew (or is it Doug)? I’m glad Shwin could let us have this dance.
I think his general role is a good start. I like the term connector, and I think it applies to him, but more than most players, Lonzo doesn’t really fit into a box. He can lock down the perimeter and hit threes, a classic archetype, but not many of those players have shown the type of advantage creation he’s shown with his passing ability. We’re not talking “make the right play on the break” or “make the right pass out of a dive” passing — we’re talking advanced, one or two steps ahead passing, right?
The Ingles comp is an interesting one — they definitely fit a similar mold. But if you could get a 23-year-old Joe Ingles, 20 Ms actually doesn’t feel too crazy.
With Lonzo, you’re not banking on untapped potential — he’s already debatably a premier 3-and-D swingman (I’m sure we’ll dive deeper into the evidence there) and has some specific, prescribable improvement areas that, at 23, it isn’t impossible to envision him working on. The way I see it, the conversation around a “true” point guard or advantage creator can feel like the NFL conversations around a “true No. 1 receiver” — Lonzo can create opportunities for his teammates, efficiently, in multiple ways, and would immediately become the best volume passer on the team. With Randle’s growth as a playmaker and the continued on-ball development of RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, is it a disaster if he isn’t prime Chris Paul on the ball?
Drew: When you do not have a lead guard in place, I do not think paying a 23-year-old Joe Ingles-esque player $20-plus million is a wise idea. Now, if the Knicks trade for Collin Sexton, for example, then then I could get behind bringing in Lonzo for what would basically be a more expensive Tim Hardaway Jr. contract. Having a starting lineup of Sexton, Ball, Barrett, Randle, and Robinson with Quickley and Rose coming off the bench makes sense to me. It not only keeps Rose healthy and not overburdened throughout the season, it would also minimize a potential and hypothetical negative impact of a “sophomore slump” from Quickley. I personally do not see one for Quickley, but I’m not running an NBA franchise, so I can easily take these types of risks.
If you told me that both Quickley and Barrett are taking leaps while Randle more or less remains the same in terms of impact, bringing in Lonzo Ball also makes sense, because you’ll have Ball in his ideal role. Quickley in this scenario would be the starting “point guard” and has the ability to break down the defense, especially in a pick-and-roll, while Barrett is the bully-ball, attacking wing.
What worries me about bringing in Ball is if the Knicks are like “you’re going to be our starting point guard” and more or less run back the same team as last year. That is where you are going to get into trouble, because Ball is not the type of player to break down a defense and attack the rim.
Derek: I see the concerns about rim pressure from Lonzo, for sure. Generally, you want your point guard to be able to penetrate and scramble a defense. He only made 64 shots at the rim this season per nbashotcharts.com. He doesn’t draw many fouls — in just the 28th percentile league-wide in drawing fouls on drives, per BBall Index — and doesn’t finish very well, either.
However, although he isn’t exactly Pelicans teammate Zion Williamson in the paint, his drive game is far from a clear zero. Though on aggregate his rim pressure has been low, again per BBall Index, 81% of his rim attempts last season were unassisted, a number that ranked 90th percentile league wide. He has shown he can attack a defense off the dribble, not using a screen and not off a spot up pump fake. Once he does get inside, he can use his elite instincts and pure passing ability to create advantages:
I wouldn’t put a cap on his scoring prowess, either. He’s seen his points per shot attempt improve drastically season by season, and though there was nowhere to go but up and attempts remain relatively low, one of the toughest development paths in basketball is improving scoring efficiency with a usage uptick:
It seems like much of your concern regarding bringing in Lonzo revolves around the fit for next season — does he fit with Collin Sexton better than he does with Immanuel Quickley, for instance. I personally take a longer view — hey, here’s a 23-year-old who’s gotten better every season, who projects as a seamless fit on just about any good playoff team, and who won’t cost draft picks or young players like the previously mentioned Sexton.
Do I love a $20 million price? I don’t. However, I don’t think it’s far off what his on-court value will likely be ($15 million? $18 million?), and given the number of reported suitors for his services, and his plug-and-play game, it seems likely such a deal would be easily tradable if it came down to it.
Drew: I appreciate the detailing of the efficiency at the rim, but we cannot just ignore the volume side of things. Here is a bubble scatter plot of guard drive data from this past season. The larger the bubble, the more drives per game:
I’m not asking Lonzo Ball to be a Luka Doncic-, James Harden-, or (apparently) TJ McConnell-level driver. But he’s basically Donte DiVencenzo that does not generate a high level of assists off drives? That’s worrisome.
Again, to continue to hammer this point, these numbers would not be much of a concern if you told me Ball’s role was not lead offensive initiator or “point guard.” I get that most of the offense will run through Julius Randle or RJ Barrett. They both attack the rim, and Ball’s presence on the court will keep driving lanes open WAY MORE than Elfrid Payton. But Randle is not a Jokic-type of big initiator in terms of setting up the offense. Barrett running the offense is still to be determined. And say you decide to make a comparison to Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in terms of similar offensive roles for Barrett and Randle. The Heat still played Goran Dragic, and Lonzo Ball is not Goran Dragic.
I’m with you on the price point — $18 million per year would be a bit too rich for me, but if that is what it takes to get him, it would not be the end of the world. Not my money. But there needs to be another guard to pair with Ball, whether it is trading for Collin Sexton, signing Kyle Lowry as well, or starting Immanuel Quickley. If the Knicks run out a starting lineup of Ball, Bullock, Barrett, Randle, and Robinson, you’re asking a lot from Barrett and Randle to collapse the defense. I do think this discussion does become a bit moot if Barrett does take another leap and Randle performs similarly. Will the front office take that risk? To be determined.
Derek: You know I love me a good chart. It’s clear — driving isn’t necessarily Lonzo’s strong suit. And for the record, I’d still be down to bring in a Lowry/Conley type (would be alright with Sexton, too), even with Lonzo on board.
I think many of the Lonzo debates I’ve seen have also underrated the potential impact of SiXtH mAn Immanuel Quickley, who, though not necessarily a rim-attacker either, has shown he can take on significant ball-handling responsibilities for this team. They’ve also underrated Lonzo’s defensive impact — it’s debatable that he walks into the building on Day 1 as the best perimeter defender on the Knicks, already one of the top units in basketball last season. Some tidbits, per our friends at BBall Index:
Lonzo had the fifth-highest matchup difficulty in all of basketball this season, just ahead of players like Patrick Beverley and Jrue Holiday
Despite the tough matchups, he performed extremely well on defense, ranking 96th percentile in steals per possession and 79th in deflections
Lonzo was also relatively versatile in his defensive matchups, spending 20% of his time guarding primary ball handlers, but a significant amount of time against shot creators, slashers, and movement shooters
(Note: For some more fun advanced metrics and charts, see the addendum at the end of this article.)
I’ll say my final word on Lonzo here — I agree with you; his archetype is not the biggest glaring need for the Knicks right now, but his age, plug-and-play ability, and fit next to cornerstones Barrett and Randle still intrigues me. It’s the kind of signing that helps you win now and helps you win later, and at the right price (I’d go to $18 million a year for him), would still leave enough cap room to improve the team in other ways (a la Sexton), while not costing picks or young players himself (a la Sexton).
Or we could just bring back Frank.
Addendum:
Hey guys, Derek here. During the research phase of the article, I collected a number of different charts on Lonzo. As Drew and I got into the flow of the conversation, it was difficult for either of us to just ham-fist in some of the visuals. We have below a detailed breakdown of Lonzo’s shooting zone chart from this past season.
via NBAShotCharts.com
We have a table capturing where Lonzo ranks in the different adjusted plus-minus stats across the internet.
via BBall Index
We have an estimated projection of the wins Ball may add for a team and the relative monetary value.
via BBall Index
And finally, we have a career projection of Lonzo’s LEBRON adjusted plus-minus value.
via BBall Index
