Breaking down the many, MANY options for the Knicks in the 2020 NBA Draft
So here we are. After months of Tankathon simulations, highlight videos with mumble rap blasting in the background, and various sacrificial (you guys didn’t do that? I mean me either…) and superstitious rituals, the lottery gods 2020’ed the Knicks, smiting them with the eighth pick as Michael Jordan’s current and former teams reaped the benefits of New York’s misfortune. Or did they?
I’ll make the case here that there are several scenarios that could be very advantageous for the Knicks, and discuss how they can address them. Of course, they can always just take Devin Vassell, which would be a fine outcome. But there are other chains of events that could provide some serious optionality.
Before starting, I’ll address one move that’s been discussed by a lot of NBA analysts: trading Mitchell Robinson and the No. 8 pick for the No. 2 pick, presumably for LaMelo Ball. I don’t think the Knicks should do this for a couple of reasons:
For all of the preternatural feel, ballhandling, and fluidity LaMelo displayed, let’s keep in mind a lot of this was based on a 12-game sample size. Yes, LaMelo’s intersection of size, elite passing, and elite ball handling are top-3 pick material in any draft, but there is uncertainty. Will he shoot? I think so. Will he become a capable team defender? I think so. Will he add enough strength and aggressiveness to get to the line frequently and generate high-value rim attempts/drive-and-kicks? I’d take that bet. But even though I think there are high probabilities of each and he doesn’t need all of them to pan out to be a good NBA player, his star case is not quite as ironclad as guys like Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, or Luka Doncic. You’d have to really be sold on him as a slam dunk; I think of him more as a clear path to the rim with some help defenders in decent (but not overwhelmingly threatening) positions.
In light of that, I don’t think trading a truly special defender in Mitchell Robinson is worth it. Yes, I understand teams around the league may not value Mitch the way Knicks fans do (HOW DARE THEY), but that doesn’t mean trading him is the right option. Bigs are devalued, but a guy who looks to have switch-ability, comfort on the perimeter as a defender, and absolutely elite finishing? As long as he cuts down on the fouls (and he did improve last year, even if it wasn’t as much as Knicks fans hoped), we are talking about a truly transformational defender. Sorry, I’m not giving that up to move up six spots for a prospect with question marks of his own, however rare his gifts may be. FIGHT ME. For what it’s worth, I do think LaMelo is the best prospect in this draft. But not enough to give away a blue chip asset just to move up.
With that out of the way, here we go with Draft Day: Tony Soprano has More Stones than Kevin Costner:
Scenario 1: Killian Hayes is not taken in the first seven picks
Many of the major publications with insider intelligence believe this will be the case. As of August 20 (right after the lottery), ESPN, SI, The Ringer, CBS, and Yahoo! all published mocks with Killian falling to eight or lower. They believe he will be there and base it on varying degrees of NBA intel. Yahoo! was the only publication that had the Knicks actually taking him. The case against Hayes for the Knicks, even at eight, was made succinctly in a tweet by Jonathan Wasserman:
This is somewhat reasonable logic. Killian shot a poor percentage from three, and was especially bad on catch-and-shoot opportunities. While RJ is not a primary initiator at this point, it would be ideal to pair him with someone who could not only create as a primary option but also space the floor for his drives.
But by the same token, RJ Barrett is not a primary initiator; in the modern game, pull-up shooting, passing, and change of direction/space creation abilities are vital. Are the Knicks willing to pass on a prospect who has displayed all three at a high level because the fit with RJ might be clunky at first? Are we willing to disregard the possibility that a close to 90% free throw shooter with strong pull-up abilities in Hayes will improve in catch-and-shoot (a skill many more players have obtained than players who learned how to pull up) with reps?
I say no, vehemently, and the FT% brings up an important point: FT% is often considered a better harbinger of NBA 3-point shooting ability than actual 3-point percentage for prospects, and Devin Vassell shot 73% from the line, much lower than Killian. Vassell’s 3-point percentage was stellar at 41.9% and 41.5% in his freshman and sophomore seasons, respectively. But his attempt rate wasn’t exactly astronomical, as he attempted just 4.9 threes per 40 minutes as a sophomore (solid, but not that high).
Do I think Vassell will be a competent shooter? Yes, and he did improve tremendously in shot diversity, making 39 off-the-dribble threes as a sophomore vs. one as a freshman. He will be a good shooter. But if FT% is so important, why are we taking it as a “safe” bet that Vassell will shoot, but listing shooting as a big question mark for Hayes? Vassell has better form, but Hayes’ prowess in making difficult shots along with his touch bodes extremely well. While Vassell is a potentially transformational team defender, Hayes is no slouch himself and projects to be a plus there. But finding his shot creation, that dirty fucking step-back, and playmaking at 6-foot-5 is very rare and simply can’t be passed up at this point. Combining that with someone who projects as a plus team defender? No-brainer at No. 8.
I’d also add that for all of the concern about playing Barrett with non-shooters, he had a higher 3PAR, 3P%, corner three attempt rate, and 3pt+rim attempt rate in lineups with Elfrid Payton. For all of the harm Payton may have done by constricting Barrett’s space on drives, it was clear that playing Barrett with a playmaker did him a lot of good as well. He needs to play with shooters, but he also needs to play with playmakers, and Hayes is a much better shooter than Payton (and projects to be a better playmaker as well).
Lastly, it’s worth noting the Knicks have another first round pick. Vassell is a “safe” pick as a guy who can space the floor and be an impact defender, but Desmond Bane might be the best shooter in the draft, a quality defender (if not Vassell’s level), and even has some Brogdon-esque playmaking ability off the bounce. Is the drop-off really so much from Vassell to Bane that the Knicks couldn’t wait until 27 to snatch him? And if he’s not there, guys like Cassius Stanley and Josh Green are likely to be. Put differently, barring a Kira Lewis fall to 27 (not impossible), is the drop-off from Vassell to that next tier of 3-and-D wing larger than the drop-off from Hayes to say, Malachi Flynn, Cassius Winston, or even Grant Riller?
I say no, and think Hayes should be the pick.
Scenario 2: Deni Avdija is available when the Knicks pick, but Killian Hayes isn’t
I slightly prefer Hayes to Avdija, but you could convince me otherwise. I buy the shot, especially with an improved form in his return during the COVID resumption of Israeli League, and his straight-line speed, ballhandling, playmaking and team defense is going to elevate a lot of teams. Not going to spend a lot of time on this because I’m fairly certain he’ll be drafted before eight (much more certainly than Hayes).
Scenario 3: Killian Hayes and Deni Avdija are selected before the Knicks’ pick, but Onyeka Okongwu is not
This would be a solid consolation scenario for the Knicks. On the one hand, if they decided “Vassell is here, we know what he brings, and the upside to be not just a 3-and-D but a good 3-and-elite D guy is too much to pass up,” I wouldn’t blame them. But the fact is, there would be a prospect who many people have as high as No. 2 on the board, who would be a lot more valuable to some of the other teams than he is to the Knicks.
Okongwu has been called the most NBA-ready player in the draft by many. At minimum, he should give you elite rim protection, team defense, and interior scoring. Centers are dime a dozen, but that doesn’t mean good ones are without value. However, the Knicks have a franchise center of their own, and the fit with Okongwu is problematic. Moreover, positional value does matter, and if the Knicks prefer wings or a point guard (as they should, not just because of needs, but because of potential impact), trading down could be a very good option.
The prime candidate to trade up for Okongwu would appear to be the Boston Celtics. They are a young, talented team that is ready to contend now, but are currently trotting out Daniel Theis and Enes Kanter (woof) at center. Robert Williams has not panned out. On the one hand, the fact that they just swept a team with the best center in the league might serve as an indicator that they don’t really need a good center. On the other hand, Joel Embiid absolutely abused Kanter and Theis, getting to the line 16 times. He simply didn’t have enough help. Will that hold up against Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, and all the Raptors’ switchable defenders? (Early surveys say yes.) Will that hold up in a potential matchup with Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard in the Finals? Even forgetting bigs, do you trust those two to deter drives to the rim from the quick, jitterbug guards every team loves? Okongwu would appear to be the missing piece, giving the Celtics a rim protector with solid mobility to anchor their already-solid defense. Offensively, Brad Stevens will be able to use Okongwu to post up switches and pass out of double teams, set hard screens to make life difficult for defenders trying to chase the deadly Jayson Tayum and Kemba Walker a the three-point line, and make plays on 4-on-3 short rolls when defenses try to trap Tatum or Kemba on pick-and-rolls. And Okongwu is unlikely to fall past the Wizards at No. 9, so the Celtics would likely have to trade up to the Knicks’ pick. LEVERAGE, BABY.
Boston also has three first round picks (14, 26, and 30) and is unlikely to use all three. If I’m the Knicks, I’d ask for all three. Danny Ainge once offered four (!) first round picks to move up to grab Justise Winslow (only for the Hornets to hold strong and draft Frank Kaminsky), and Okongwu is a better prospect who more immediately increases their chances at a title. Would Boston give up more? Marcus Smart and 14? I’d do that. Marcus Smart and 26? Probably not, but the idea of getting a Swiss army knife who can now hit open threes and bring leadership to the Knicks’ locker room would be awesome.
More likely is Boston packaging its picks to move up. If 14, 26, and 30 is too much, you could also swap seconds in this draft. So Boston gets No. 8, takes Okongwu, and the Knicks get 14, 26, and 30. Not only do I think there are better fits for the Knicks who are undervalued by some of the top teams (based on the intel that’s been published), but having more chances at success is even more important in a draft with so much uncertainty.
Having said that, I wouldn’t use all four first round picks. I’d package 26 and 27 to try to move up to 19 or so. I think you’d definitely want to do due diligence, but some of the guys available at 14 who could be good fits for the Knicks are the speedy Kira Lewis Jr., unicorn stretch 4 Aleksej Pokusevski, Kenny Payne’s former player Tyrese Maxey, or even Vassell. Hell, ESPN had Killian Hayes falling to 14.
Ideally, I’d take Kira at 14, move up high enough using 26, 27 and cash to snag Pokusevski in the late teens, and draft Desmond Bane at 30. You get a point guard with a pretty solid floor (even if Kira’s playmaking doesn’t evolve or he doesn’t gain enough strength to finish at a high rate, his speed and shooting ability will likely make him a solid rotation piece) and a very enticing ceiling (De’Aaron Fox minus 25% of his passing ability and plus 50% better shooting ability?).
You also get a player with perhaps the highest ceiling in the draft outside LaMelo in Pokusevski — a boom-or-bust 7-footer whose magical upside case looks like a player who can come off floppy screens and drain jumpers, run pick-and-rolls as a ball handler and make plays off the short roll, provide rim protection and solid team defense. Kristaps Porzingis, plus passing? Yes please.
And finally, in Bane, you get a high-floor 3-and-D guy who isn’t the defender Devin Vassell is (no one besides Okoro can say that in this draft), but is an absolutely elite shooter who is a capable playmaker off the bounce.
I’ll fully disclose that even in a vacuum, I do prefer Kira Lewis, Jr. to Vassell, for some of the same reasons I mentioned above with Killian. Every time I watch tape of this kid or look at his stats and then see him mocked in the late teens I keep asking myself what I’m missing. One of the youngest players in the draft, who has been producing at a high level against bigger, stronger athletes, who combines elite speed with the ball and good shooting ability?
But even if you don’t buy the Kira upside case (I know people are concerned his slight frame will make life difficult at the rim for him), ask yourself, again, is the difference between Vassell and Desmond Bane larger than the difference between Kira and say, Grant Riller? I think not, but you could debate it. You could not debate that even if one would rather have Vassell and Riller, adding Poku makes this a no-brainer. Walking away from this draft with a fairly high upside point guard prospect, a massive upside home run swing, and a plug-and-play elite shooter and solid defender on the wing would be a big win.
There’s also the possibility that the Knicks like a non-Kira/Vassell prospect that could be available at 14 (hello, Tyrese Maxey). Needless to say, if this is the case, the Knicks should jump on such a trade-down opportunity.
Of course, some have floated the idea of trading down for a pick in next year’s draft. Next year’s appears to be vastly superior to this draft. Unfortunately, the Knicks are not the only team that knows this. Could Boston or another team be desperate enough for Okongwu that they would trade a top-10 protected pick in next year’s draft? It appears doubtful. Okongwu also isn’t a great fit for some of the teams below the Knicks. The Kings have Marvin Bagley, the Spurs have Jakob Poetl and seem like too disciplined an organization to trade away a 2021 first rounder, Phoenix has Deandre Ayton, and the Pelicans just drafted Jaxson Hayes and likely don’t want to add a non-shooting big. Going lower, the Magic have Nikola Vucevic, the Blazers have Jusef Nurkic, the T-Wolves have Karl-Anthony Towns, the Mavs don’t own their 2021 pick (snake emoji), and the Nets have Jarrett Allen. All of the teams below that either don’t need a center or are unlikely to finish with a high pick in 2021 (or both). So trading down for a future first seems unlikely.
Are there other trade down options? Boston seems like the best bet given the potential impact Okongwu would have on their championship chances and their surfeit of first round picks. Minnesota could potentially give up picks 17 and 33. Everyone seems to hate the idea of KAT playing with another big, but the reality is they badly need help on defense. KAT’s shooting should make the fit with Okongwu more palatable. But would 17 and 33 be enough for the Knicks? Unless the Knicks really want Maxey and want to use the extra second rounder to move up from 17, I’m not sure it is.
Could the Wolves offer 17 and Josh Okogie? They’d have to absolutely love Okongwu. Even then, trading one of your best wing defenders for an interior presence seems like a “take one step back and one step forward” move. Vassell is really good too, and probably an upgrade over Okogie when you factor in his shooting, but that’s a steep price to pay to move up nine spots.
Dallas is another interesting trade down option, especially when you consider the fact that the Knicks have never, ever traded with them. At least, I can’t remember any such instance (and I won’t believe you if you tell me any different). Dallas owns the 31st pick from Golden State; would they trade 31 and 18? Okongwu would be a very good fit with He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named in the front court, providing needed defensive rebounding and more rim protection. His presence would also allow KP to aggressively close out and leak out on fast breaks, similar to how the Lakers used Anthony Davis this year.
Again, 18 and 31 might not be enough. Personally, I wouldn’t do it. Would the Mavs be willing to add in Jalen Brunson? I’d be willing to listen to that, particularly if I was interested in a player likely to be available at 18.
At the end of the day, Boston seems like both the most likely and most appetizing scenario. They are likely to want Okongwu more than any other potential trade partners. But what if they balk? The Knicks can still use the threat.
As I mentioned above, Washington is unlikely to pass on Okongwu if he gets to No. 9. He can play next to Moritz Wagner, Thomas Bryant, Davis Bertans, or even Rui Hachimura (at least if Rui continues to improve as a shooter). He could give them a badly-needed transformation on defense while also being a great pick-and-roll partner for Bradley Beal and John Wall. Okongwu’s passing ability would also benefit Washington’s shooters both on the short roll and from the post. If Washington is afraid Boston will trade up, or that the Knicks will grab Okongwu, New York can score the Wizards’ 37th overall pick as a tax for moving down one pick. Nothing ground-breaking, but it’s basically found money if Okongwu isn’t “the guy” for the Knicks anyway.
Scenario 3: Okongwu, Hayes, Deni all gone
I doubt anyone will want to trade up at this point, not even Boston. My heart really wants to take Kira, and I would trust it in making this decision, especially since I like a lot of the wing players that could to be available at 27 (Bane, Cassius Stanley, Josh Green, Isaiah Joe).
But somebody pro-Vassell would argue (correctly) that none of those guys are the defender he is, and Vassell’s also a more advanced shooter than all of them except Bane and Joe. Moreover, there are plenty of solid point guards likely to be available at the end of the first round. Malachi Flynn, Cassius Winston, Nico Mannion, and Tre Jones may not all be there, but at least one or two of them should be, and all project to be at least solid backups who bring something unique. Flynn’s pick-and-roll playmaking should translate off the bat; Winston is a great shooter with range; Mannion is a polished, elite passer; and Jones is a pitbull on defense. If you argue none of them have the upside of Kira, what’s your argument against Grant Riller? Sure, he’s almost 24, but he’s a true three-level scorer with pull-up, catch-and-shoot, and driving ability, who draws a ton of fouls. Kira may be faster and a lot younger… but Riller’s a more fully realized version of the offensive dynamo you hope Kira becomes.
I can see both sides. I do think the difference between a potential franchise point guard (which I think Kira is) and a solid starter/high-end bench player (which I think the end of the first round guys are, even Riller) is a bigger deal than the difference between an elite 3-and-D player and merely a very good one. So I’d take Kira. But for the above stated reasons, taking Vassell would be a very good option as well. If the Knicks can’t trade down, I’d take one of Kira or Vassell and then take Bane or Riller if available at 27. I also easily prefer Kira and Vassell to Okoro (the difference in defense between him and Vassell is much smaller than the massive shooting difference), Haliburton (Vassell projects as a more versatile defender), or Maxey (DV and KLJ are surer things as shooters, DV is a more versatile defender, and KLJ more easily projects as a lead initiator). But while I’d be disappointed, I wouldn’t consider those three bad picks, either.
Toppin? That’s the one pick I’d like to avoid. After a season of seeing Julius Randle, why would anyone pine for Toppin? We just talked ourselves into “OMG, Julius shot 34% from three on four attempts per game, there will be no spacing issues with Mitch!” Why are we doing the same thing with Toppin? Why do we want to draft a player at a highly important defensive position (power forward) who projects to be a terrible defender?
Bonus scenario: Trading the pick for a player
The Knicks could probably trade this pick straight up for Zach LaVine, potentially throwing in DSJ and/or Knox as filler. Would I do it? I’ve gone back and forth on this… and I’d likely pass and try to sign Fred VanVleet in free agency. But for all of Lavine’s shortcomings, consider that he is an elite shooter, including as a pull-up 3-point shooter which is perhaps the most valuable shot in the game. Consider that he is also an elite finisher, shooting 65% at the rim last year. Consider that while he’s cut down on mid-range shots, he’s fairly efficient there too. Consider he did all of this on a team that was an absolute train wreck while not sacrificing much efficiency. And consider that he seems to respect Thibodeau highly. The same Thibodeau who turned Derrick Rose into a competent defender.
The fact is, LaVine’s skillset is rare. The combination of elite shooting and finishing — with good-enough ball handling and adequate passing to make the whole thing work — is rare. I understand the trepidation, and if FVV is available for roughly the same contract without giving up an asset, maybe it doesn’t matter. But if the Knicks anticipate striking out in free agency and not getting a creator in the draft, why not take a swing? A $20 million contract will hardly be an unmovable one for LaVine, and it might be worth seeing what kind of player Thibodeau could turn him into with a structured environment.
