Macri’s Missives: Oladipo Observations

Macri’s Missives is a weekly column published on The Strickland every Thursday, where Jonathan Macri has a candid email exchange with a guest. Think of it almost like a written podcast. This week, Macri is joined by Indy Cornrows’ Caitlin Cooper to discuss Victor Oladipo, after Macri himself reported that the Knicks might have interest in trading for him earlier this week.

On Sat, Aug 29, 2020 at 8:52 AM Jonathan Macri wrote:

Morning Caitlin, and thanks so much for being up to talking a little Pacers in your spare time. 

As I wrote to you on Twitter, I'm a big fan of your coverage of the team for Indy Cornrows. The Pacers were one of the oddly fascinating NBA teams to me all season long, partly due to their roster construction — with two big men playing such prominent roles — and partly due to expectations being significantly raised with the Brogdon signing, but mostly because of the situation with Victor Oladipo.

To me, the moment he turned down the rumored four-year, $80 million extension, he bore close watching as much as any player in the NBA this season, simply because there aren't many unrestricted free agents who are set to hit the market in the next few years, under the age of 30, who have been multi-time All-Stars. I actually wrote about the Pacers for a different blog in the 2017-18 season and had 'Dipo fifth on my personal MVP ballot after watching much of his Most Improved Player campaign. He was that good.

So I guess before we get to where things stand now, what were your impressions of the season he just had, and I guess of his place on this Pacer team as things stand right now?

On Sat, Aug 29, 2020 at 10:58 AM Caitlin Cooper wrote:

That's the million(s) dollar question, right? A big part of what made his first season with the Pacers so special was the control he had gained over his athleticism paired with his improved shooting. I think it's probably safe to say that we still haven't seen a completely healthy Oladipo, but the version of Oladipo we did see in Orlando didn't look like a top scoring option — at least not in that moment.

During this year’s playoffs, he had more turnovers than assists and he took nearly 60% of his shots as threes despite the fact that he had been up and down from long distance while inside the bubble. Even ignoring the results, however, it just doesn't seem like the process is quite there for him yet. In addition to his uncharacteristically messy handle, he still occasionally lands softly on one leg after pulling up for a jump shot; and when he does get into the paint, he has a tendency to avoid jumping off of his right to settle for floaters and off-balance lay-ups. He showed a few flashes here and there in Game 4 of the Pacers’ series with Miami, but he needs a consistent jumper. Without it, the rest of his game — where he has exhibited the most struggles with his burst since returning — becomes that much harder. 

On Sat, Aug 29, 2020 at 5:22 PM Jonathan Macri wrote:

I'm so happy you mentioned the control he displayed when he first came to Indiana. The outside shooting gets all the credit for his rise to MVP-candidate status, but he was between 54 and 59% at the rim over the first four years of his career, and then skyrocketed to 67 percent in 2017-18.

The 57 percent he was at to start the following year was, I guess, some regression to the mean, but the 44 percent this year was obviously a sign of something much more serious. Given what you saw on those drives to the paint, it makes perfect sense. But even if we give him the benefit of the doubt that the burst will be back once he hits the two-year mark from the injury — and perhaps that he starts to trust his jumping/landing more to up those ugly rim numbers — we're still left with the shooting. And if you're a guard who defenses don't have to respect from outside, I just don't know how high your value can be nowadays, unless you're Russell Westbrook and you're lucky enough to play in a fantasy world offense.

So instead of asking whether you think the Pacers will wind up dealing Oladipo this summer, I'll ask you a two-parter: would you still offer him the 4/80 contract he turned down a year ago, and do you think moving on from him is the right move, assuming that no one is going to pay more than 50 cents on the dollar?

On Sat, Aug 29, 2020 at 6:21 PM Caitlin Cooper wrote:

Wow, that's tough. First and foremost, I think there needs to be a frank and honest discussion between both sides. The one thing the Pacers have going for them at this point is that Oladipo has every reason to prove himself next season. If he doesn't already have one foot out the door, and he indicates that his decision will be based on finances (not a desire to grow his brand in a different market), then... gulp... I think you give him a chance to bet on himself and re-assess things under a new coach prior to the trade deadline. 

Admittedly, given that 4/80 was less than what he was eligible for in annual raises at the time, lower than what he makes now, and below what the Pacers signed Malcolm Brogdon for last summer, I originally perceived those terms to be a low-ball offer in the moment that could later backfire. Now, however, I don't know that I would feel comfortable locking him up at or above that number long-term without seeing more from him beyond what he showed in Orlando. As you pointed out, I can't imagine the Pacers will get full-price offers for him at present, especially in the event that either of Bradley Beal or Jrue Holiday becomes available, but I would be quietly scanning the market while assessing his progress. If he plays above expectations and doesn't demand a trade, then you pay him fair value. If he wants out, then hopefully he drums up enough interest to create somewhat of a bidding war with teams willing to take a flyer on a potential rental. 

Of course, I'm saying all of this as a blogger who doesn't answer to a team governor who may, or may not, want to pay that much for a roster during the middle of a pandemic. Then again, the Pacers issued a very Knicks-like official statement to shoot down a podcast rumor that Larry Bird left his position as President of Basketball Operations in 2017 because ownership wouldn't spend "big money," so maybe my plan would get approved? 

Overall, I'm just glad that I don't have to make these decisions. 

On Sun, Aug 30, 2020 at 4:53 PM Jonathan Macri wrote:

I just read that statement, and it is indeed out of Knicks PR School 101 (I'm not sure if this is a compliment).

I also think it's safe to say we're both thankful that we're not currently running NBA teams. As you say, with the uncertain financial times staring all franchises in the face, the decision-making process on trades and free agency may be exponentially harder this offseason.

Because of that uncertainty, I think your measured approach is perfect, and if I had to bet, it's what the Pacers will actually do. Smart teams don't trade potential core pieces when their value is at its lowest, and while I suppose it's possible ’Dipo continues to struggle, he's a tireless worker and knows this may be his last, best chance at a monumental payday. If ever someone was going to be motivated to work overtime on his game this summer, it's him.

But this is a blog, which means we're contractually obligated to not end this conversation on a sensible note. So just for fun: let's assume Vic does tell management that he already has one foot out the door, and forces their hand enough to seek a trade. In my newsletter tomorrow, I'm pitching a lowball Knicks trade so paltry that I'm embarrassed to write it here. (Ed. note: I don’t care about Macri’s shame. It was: Dennis Smith Jr., Reggie Bullock, the 27th pick and cash for Victor Oladipo and Jeremy Lamb. You’re welcome!) I also admit that it has little chance of being accepted, particularly because I think the Heat would beat it. So: what would you say to a Miami offer of Kelly Olynyk's expiring contract, Kendrick Nunn, and the 20th pick in this year's draft for Oladipo and a Jeremy Lamb salary dump?

On Mon, Aug 31, 2020 at 8:57 AM Caitlin Cooper wrote:

The more teams that register interest, the better — so I'm actually glad you brought up the possibility of the Knicks making an offer, no matter how paltry. Otherwise, I'm not sure I buy that the Heat will be willing to give up assets for a pending free agent who has been linked to them in rumors. For me, Nunn doesn't feel like quite enough, but I suspect Miami would say that Tyler Herro is too much. Something else I keep going back to: If Bradley Beal becomes available, why wouldn't Washington be Miami's first call? Imagine plugging Beal into the sets the Heat already run for Herro and Duncan Robinson, only with his added on-ball skills. Whew... if Oladipo ends up wanting out, the Pacers probably need to hope that other elite 2-guards don't dilute his market, or else we might just be exchanging emails again ahead of next year's trade deadline. 

On Mon, Aug 31, 2020 at 5:10 PM Jonathan Macri wrote:

Well, as much as I wouldn't mind exchanging more emails, for the Pacers' sake, I hope you're right. 

And I agree that Indiana would surely ask for Herro, and that Riles would almost certainly say no. Would they give up Duncan Robinson? Would that even be enough? I think what's become clear through this exchange is that even if Oladipo tells them he wants out and is planning on jetting next summer, unless someone wants to overpay, it behooves them to hang on and hope his value increases. Now I guess we just have to see if any organization blows them away.

So, last one before I let you go: former Knicks head coach Mike D'Antoni, or the guy many fans wanted to be the next Knicks head coach, Kenny Atkinson… who do you prefer as the next Indy coach? 

On Mon, Aug 31, 2020 at 6:22 PM Caitlin Cooper wrote:

Kevin Pritchard indicated during his end-of-season press conference that the Pacers will be in search of a "modern approach," both with regards to offensive concepts as well as relating to today's player. No matter what you think of Atkinson holding his ground and starting Jarrett Allen over DeAndre Jordan, he's had run-ins with star management — as has D'Antoni during stops in New York and Los Angeles. 

That said, from a tactical standpoint, I think either would be an upgrade over Nate McMillan in terms of thinking outside the box. Atkinson's system is a little more motion-based, whereas D'Antoni's is largely read-and-react. The Pacers obviously aren't going to be able to import Houston's pint-sized iso-ball without also importing James Harden, but I really like the fit of what I've seen from some of D'Antoni's scripted sets as a foundation for how to get the most out of Sabonis as a playmaker as well as the Brogdon-Oladipo pairing while also better involving the surrounding role players. Not to bury the lede, but I *might* have more on this later this week :)

(Ed. note: Here is that piece!)

On Tue, Sep 1, 2020 at 8:38 AM Jonathan Macri wrote:

FINALLY... I was keeping this conversation going until you finally plugged something you were working on. Mission accomplished.

Well, this was fun. Now promise me that if and when ’Dipo gets traded to New York, you can hop on my podcast so we can talk about all the incorrect things I said here... deal?

On Tue, Sep 1, 2020 at 11:23 AM Caitlin Cooper wrote:

If it comes to that, I look forward to reflecting on both of our wrongness.