Cap Concerns: Undesirable contracts for the Knicks to pursue — Al Horford

The Knicks have a ton of cap space this offseason, and apparently are open to the idea of absorbing bad deals in exchange for assets. One such guy? Al Horford.

I’ve been watching Cobra Kai on Netflix this week, and there is a scene in Season 2 (not really a spoiler), where William Zabka’s character, “Johnny Lawrence,” essentially discovers the internet. No, the show is not set in the pre-2000s, but in the modern day, and Lawrence is on the far side of 30, not entering teenagehood. His inaugural browser search was simply “hot babes,” which was followed by the all-time classic “wet t-shirt contest.” I know, I know, but hold on — I’m going somewhere with this, seriously.

I couldn’t help but associate the hilarious scene with one of the more recent developments in New York Knicks rumors and reporting. SNY’s Ian Begley reported the team was “open to using their 2020 cap space for an undesirable contract,” and are letting other teams know ahead of the draft. In the same way Zabka’s character discovered the internet in Cobra Kai, it seems the Knicks have discovered there are indeed other purposes for their cap space outside of striking out on superstars and settling for overpaying role players. Similar to Lawrence in Cobra Kai, this opportunity has always been in front of them. But they have rarely (if ever) exercised such a deal, AKA a salary dump.

Now it appears the Knicks could actually be mulling over any and all options ahead of the upcoming draft, in hopes of acquiring more young talent and/or draft picks. I’ll be going through a few of the league’s more undesirable salaries over the next few weeks, mapping out salary dump trades to New York, and examining the likelihood and/or benefits of said deals. First up: Al Horford of the Philadelphia 76ers.

There may have not been a larger loser in last year’s offseason than the 76ers, who handed out large contracts to veteran forwards Horford and Tobias Harris instead of retaining Jimmy Butler, who led a pesky, underdog Miami Heat team to the NBA Finals and — with two of his best teammates injured — challenged LeBron James’ Los Angeles Lakers. Of course, most people will tell you that Butler’s exit from Philly was scripted well before the team’s disappointing finish in the 2019 playoffs, but there’s no concrete evidence to support such a claim. No, 76ers general manager Elton Brand (somehow still employed through all of this) ultimately valued the morale of his locker room over the sum of talent. There’s been a purely speculative (but effective) narrative surrounding Butler and his — well, we’ll just call it “attitude” towards younger, key players since he left the Chicago Bulls.

Thus, when Ben Simmons suffered a knee injury ahead of this year’s playoffs, Philadelphia was promptly swept out by the Boston Celtics in the first round. Since, they’ve responded. Not by firing Brand, I’m inclined to remind you, but by firing seven-year coach Brett Brown and replacing him with Doc Rivers, extending Brand (???) and bringing in Daryl Morey as President of Basketball Operations. The latter of those three additions almost certainly implies that roster change is on its way. Morey was often admired for his guts and willingness to do whatever it took to alter his rosters in Houston, but as a result the Rockets’ immediate outlook in terms of first-round picks is incredibly bleak. That being said, the very obvious first order of business for Morey now is offing Horford’s lucrative salary. The 34-year-old big will make $27 million in both of the next two seasons, with a partial guarantee in 2022-2023. It’s not the ugliest contract in the league, but people aren’t lining up for Horford’s services anymore. This isn’t 2014.

Horford isn’t too far removed from winning basketball. He was a key piece in the Celtics’ 2019 playoff run (his putting up with Kyrie Irving should be recommendation enough) before they were bounced in the East semis by Milwaukee. But at his price point, Horford makes little sense for teams with a championship on their minds going into next year. It also doesn’t help that the NBA took a hit financially thanks to the COVID-19 outbreak. So, what kind of deal would make sense for the Knicks to bring Horford to Madison Square Garden?

A lot of people have written him off, so please don’t laugh when I propose this, but how about Bobby Portis as the centerpiece? You can get really close to Horford’s salary with Portis and someone else — say, Elfrid Payton? Julius Randle’s salary works just the same, and I’ve no doubt that’d be the preference of 99% of #KnicksTwitter. If the 76ers can throw in Shake Milton and a draft pick, this should be an easy “yes” for New York. Horford’s no spring chicken, but the list of pros should exceed that of cons, and comfortably.

The veteran big brings a lot of what New York is looking for in any potential superstar, just without the whole “superstar” stature. Horford played winning basketball for the majority of his career, from the Atlanta Hawks to the Boston Celtics. For all intents and purposes, we’ll void his lone year with the 76ers, given that it should likely end up being just that: his only season on a team that was a bad fit from the jump. Horford wasn’t “bad” last year, either: he averaged 11.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, and four assists in 67 appearances while still shooting 35% from 3-point land. The last three numbers should be enticing for New York: his availability, capabilities as a passer in and out of the post, and league-average 3-point shooting.

I’ve often said that the best way to jumpstart young center Mitchell Robinson’s progression to All-Star is to not only emphasize his already astute defense, but to put someone next to him in the frontcourt who can both initiate the offense and space the floor. Because yes, believe it or not, I’m not sure any of Julius Randle’s spinning drives into the paint have ever actually made for an easy bucket for Robinson. Horford is years removed from even thinking of attempting such athleticism in the paint. He’d no doubt welcome playing next to a young, springy, attention-grabbing big.

Horford checks all of those boxes, and for the price of two more years paying his salary should likely be deemed worth it for the New York Knicks, provided Philadelphia coughs up the draft compensation. The 76ers don’t have their own first-round pick, thanks to the Tobias Harris trade with the Clippers, but do own the Thunder’s, 21st overall. They’ve also got four second-rounders, of which, Jon Macri recently reported, New York was interested in acquiring a surplus of, even if it’s just in a straight up cash transaction. Philadelphia has the 34th, 36th, 49th, and 58th picks and are likely to trade or sell at least some of them.

This year will be as crucial as any to Robinson’s development, with an extension looming. Redefining Randle’s role or replacing him with a proven veteran 4 like Horford (I’ll settle for Danilo Gallinari if I must) should be atop the priority list for Leon Rose, Tom Thibodeau, and the new New York Knicks regime.

These are the players, you know the game. But is there any likelihood of a Horford deal that lands him in New York? While taking on Portis’ and Payton’s salaries doesn’t sound appealing by any means, remember that the 76ers won’t be approaching this year as a championship-or-bust campaign. Clearing Horford’s salary ahead of the 2021 free agent class should be considered a big enough victory in Morey’s first year as Philadelphia’s shot-caller. This isn’t the most likely of scenarios, but I can’t help but feel there’s benefit in doing a deal here for both parties. New York is going to be one of the worst teams in the NBA once again this season. Why not (finally) take advantage of what that means in terms of cap space and ability to assemble assets?

Al Horford may not be the guy for whom New York makes the ultimate sacrifice, but like Johnny Lawrence in Cobra Kai, the Knicks have to see what’s out there before they can make proper judgement.