Late and Splashy: A look at late pick shooters for the Knicks at picks 27 and 38
The 2020 NBA Draft class has often been touted as underwhelming, but hidden below the less-than-stellar top-end talent is a gold mine of shooting that could prove to be one of the best in recent memory. Prez and Tryrese London dive deep on the 2020 draft’s shooting surplus that will be available to the Knicks at picks 27 and 38.
Part I: A Brief Recent History of Late Pick Shooters
The Knicks have one shooter presumably under contract next year: Reggie Bullock. That’s it. Last year, they rostered four: Reggie, Damyean Dotson, Wayne Ellington and Bobby Portis. None are core members of the team: Dotson is the kind of capable bench guard who a contending team might spend a spare dollar on in restricted free agency; Ellington, Portis and Bullock all have team options (the first two more expensive, the latter dirt cheap). Only Bullock is really an easy call as a keeper, financially, despite the Knicks’ hilarious lack of shooting. You don’t need to be a prophet to know New York is going to take a hard look at shooters with the 27th and 38th picks (and possibly earlier, if there is any asset consolidation via trade). This piece is a look at what shooters are available in the late first round and the second round of the 2020 draft.
We’re going to ignore some shooters. Cassius Winston, Immanuel Quickley and Malachi Flynn are being left out here because they’ve received deep coverage from our very own Stacy Patton, and Grant Riller will be left out because we covered him here. Riller and Flynn are more shotmakers than snipers, but have indicators which point to being better shooters than their 3-point percentage.
Lastly, before we get into evaluation, let’s take a quick detour into the past five drafts: which useful shooters were found in the late first round and the early second? Can we learn anything from them about what makes a shooter NBA-useful vs. NBA-useless? We’ll also note any successful undrafted shooters from those years who’ve stuck around, too.
We didn’t have a strict threshold for inclusion onto this back-of-the-napkin list. These guys were mostly included after a quick glance at their basic statistical splits, and if they had a 3-point percentage in the high 30s, more than three attempts per game and/or a solid free throw percentage, we included them. Some observations:
1: More shooters late, lately
The first observation is that in more recent years as Moreyball has proliferated, teams are more willing to roll the dice on late picks who can shoot. Earlier in the draft, shooting is still undervalued, in my opinion — you see teams more willing to gamble on players with good profiles but bad shooting, hoping they can fix it. As we get closer to the present day in the list, you also begin seeing a few bigs who can shoot it, though they tend to fall for concerns like age (Wagner) or injury (Bol Bol).
2: Age
These players tend to be older. They didn’t pop as early in their college careers, for the most part. Occasionally, a frosh like our own Iggy or a Euro like Korkmaz falls a tad, but usually those guys go earlier if they have any promise.
3: Short guards must do more than shoot threes. Usually. Maybe. IDK.
Another genre of late shooter who seems to always be available is the undersized point/combo guard. That’s a tough archetype to succeed with in the NBA, because even if you got the ratchet, so much is tough in the NBA for guys under 6-foot-3; even first-round picks picks that small struggle because you need to bring some major skills to the table to even crack a rotation (Tre Jones/Jevon Carter’s defense; Collin Sexton/Brandon Knight’s volume scoring; TJ McConnell’s facilitation/defense, Fred VanVleet’s whole package, etc). If you don’t have some serious skills, you’re not worth what you’ll give back on defense. Monte Morris, Jalen Brunson and Devonte’ Graham all combined solid distributing with plus shooting. Graham is way less efficient on the whole, but makes up for it with better shooting and passing.
Sometimes it just takes solid defensive development, solid shooting, and a team that knows how to utilize a short guard’s strengths. You could put Bryn Forbes, Royce O'Neale, and Quinn Cook in this group. Would guys like Frank Jackson, Frank Mason, Tyler Ulis, or Khyri Thomas be trending up with better team systems and/or defensive development? What separates these two groups? Tough to tell, definitively. Where will Carsen Edwards, in a good theoretical infrastructure in Boston, end up?
4: Big guards who shoot have been good bets
We also see here a few bigger guards with ancillary skills: Shamet, Brogdon, Hart, White, Dotson, and Brooks. All pair shooting with defense and sometimes solid passing. For the purposes of this bullet, we can define guards as not clear wings who played on the ball in college some and can pass and who are either 1s or 2s in most of their NBA minutes. There are actually hardly any tall guards who can shoot well who didn’t succeed from this bunch. Most fell because of the combination of age and lack of perceived upside. Seems like a good indicator for Ty Jerome, but they can’t all work out. Right?
5: 40% Is A Magic Number
For players designated as green, there seems to be a recurring trend: all shot around 40% from deep in at least one season before being drafted. While some were unable to maintain that level throughout their collegiate/international years, they were able to show at least flashes of being an above-average shooter on decent to high volume. The college season is short, but perhaps a 40% season as a part of a larger good body of shooting is indicative of high ability, not unlike a great college scorer having a 40-point game as evidence of what they could be.
6: Mystery of the Wing
While big guards who handle the ball and knock down threes have an unusually high hit rate, wings (loosely defined as guys who might play the 2 or 3 or even 4, rather than guys are are pretty much tall 1s and average size 2s) have a more checkered history.
The good: Dorian Finney-Smith, Duncan Robinson, and Furkan
The meh: Svi Mykhailiuk and Brazdeikis (flashes but not many chances), and Johnnie Bryant disciple Royce O’Neal.
The bad: Anthony Brown, R.J. Hunter, Tyler Lydon.
We’re not working with a big sample here, so it’s hard to come to any useful conclusions. Furkan and Duncan were elite, 40-plus percent shooters for multiple years (see No. 5 above). DFS had one such season, but also shot below 60% from the foul line that year. We weren’t even sure whether to include him here, to be honest. Furkan and Duncan’s utility comes primarily from elite shooting and size, and DFS more so from solid shooting in an elite system also in tandem with his size (for one year — we’ll see if he regresses, since this is his first good shooting year in the pros). Only one thing is clear: 3-point proficient wings don’t drop off often. Given the high demand for rotations full of 3-and-D-plus wings or knock-off versions, that makes sense intuitively.
Part II: Looking at late-pick-projected shooters in 2020
OK, back to the 2020 class. How are we going to evaluate these would-be shooters? A few college stats: 3-point percentage (3P%), 3-point rate (3PR), long 2-point percentage and free throw percentage (FT%). Statistically, those are my favorite collegiate indicators. Qualitatively, we can look at mechanics of course: jumpshot variety, as well as touch (nebulous as that correlation is). Where we can, we also might look at high school FT% and 3P%, though sometimes those stats are tough to find. Fortunately most of these guys are older, so high school stats are less needed. Finally, we’ll follow that with a super-quick take on the rest of the game — after all, no one wants a shooter who is absolutely garbage at everything else.
In addition to excluding shooters who’ve already received more analysis here, we’re also going to leave out shooters we think will go closer to 15-20 than 30-40: Aaron Nesmith, Desmond Bane, Tyrell Terry, Cole Anthony, Kira Lewis, and Grant Riller (though there’s a chance Grant falls). Those guys are, for the most part, strong enough in non-shooting areas that, at worst, they’ll stick around as useful bench players, if not solid rotation players who may end up solid (or better, even) starters if development and team fit come together synergistically — hence why they’re projected earlier.
How many of those guys do you know? Take a deep breath, there are A LOT of shooters to cover!
Killian Tillie (6-foot-10, center)
The Numbers: Career 44% shooter on 2.2 3PA over four years; this season 40% on 3.8 3PA.
The Qualitative Stuff (Mechanics, Variety, Touch):
Tillie is not one of these low- or mid-volume shooters who you worry about increasing his 3-point rate. He has all the indicators of a guy whose shot will play up in the NBA when he’s not a focus of defenses. He has crisp, Nikola Vučević-like mechanics. He also has touch: the numbers on floaters, post-ups and non-rim 2-pointers are all GREAT. He’s not a good shooter for a big; he’s a good shooter, period.
What does the rest of his game look like? Tillie can score everywhere: from three, around the hoop, in transition, on mismatches in the post. He’s smart, takes good shots, knows how to move the ball, plays solid team defense. He has flashes of perimeter defense ability, but you don’t want him out there often. Also, notably, he’s a bit underwhelming at the rim defensively and on the glass. He would be a top-14 pick easily if not for being injury prone throughout his collegiate career.
Isaiah Joe (6-foot-5, shooting guard)
The Numbers: Career 38% shooter on 9.1 3PA, this season 34% on 10.6 (!) 3PA. Career 89% FT%.
The Qualitative Stuff (Mechanics, Variety, Touch):
Beautiful mechanics off the catch, off the dribble, moving in any direction. High, smooth release with great footwork. His shot portfolio is very diverse — you don’t put up his volume without being comfortable with a variety of jumpers.
What does the rest of his game look like? He is an incredible shooter and knows it, and takes some bad early shot clock Rucker Park threes. He has shown flashes of handle, closeout driving, and passing, but isn’t consistent yet. The handle flashes can be pretty strong; he is definitely working with more there than most dedicated shooters. The one shooting weak spot he has offensively is he actually didn’t do great off screens in both volume or quality, despite a good off-ball motor. On defense, he is more theoretical than realized, as well, despite his good wingspan.
Read more about Isaiah Joe in Jack Huntley’s profile on him!
Sam Merrill (6-foot-5, shooting guard)
The Numbers: Career 42% shooter on 5.8 3PA, this season 41% on 6.8 3PA. Shot 89% over four years from the free throw line.
The Qualitative Stuff (Mechanics, Variety, Touch):
Merrill has a smooth jumper off the dribble, off movement, and off the catch. He doesn’t jump too high, and he gets it off quick with great wrist action. The variety and touch are all there. Half his shots are threes, and he still hit at an elite clip. You can pencil him in as a sniper.
What does the rest of his game look like? He’s 24, so he is far further along his development curve than other prospects. He’s a bad athlete: zero dunks, and a steal rate of 1.7%. His game is pretty developed: he can attack closeouts and pull up or pass comfortably; he is comfortable driving and drawing free throws; he’s not short or slight at 6-foot-5, 205. He’s also a pretty dogged, communicative defender despite not being the most quick or agile guy.
Jordan Nwora (6-foot-7, wing)
The Numbers: Career 39% 3-point shooter on 4.9 3PA, this season 40% on 6.1 3PA.
The Qualitative Stuff (Mechanics, Variety, Touch):
He’s tall with a low-ish release that we usually see with guards like Coby White or Trae Young; as a result, he gets that thang off super quickly. Strong off screens; doesn’t have the touch, handle or ball transfer to be a mean pull-up threat just yet.
What does the rest of his game look like? He doesn’t do too much else. In transition and with an open lane, he can get bouncy and throw down. He’s sneakily strong at rebounding and getting physical, but never passes, and is a pretty poor defender aside from the rare instances where he wants to use his size to lock in on a 1-on-1 assignment. A bet on him is a bet that you can do what Phoenix did with Cam Johnson: make him a passable defender, and let the size and shooting provide most of the value.
Nico Mannion (6-foot-2, point guard)
The Numbers: 32% on 5.1 3PA. His high school 3P%/FT% (depending on source) were in the high 30s, mid 80s, respectively.
The Qualitative Stuff (Mechanics, Variety, Touch):
Mannion’s shot looks mostly clean, maybe a few tweaks away from truly textbook. He has to get that weird hunch in his back out of some of his shots. He has great handle and ball transfer, so he can get off the three in a variety of ways. He’s shown touch, too, so I’d expect his numbers to be closer to league average than his college year.
What does the rest of his game look like? He’s a smart, passing point guard who’s proficient running pick-and-roll. Athletic in space, but not a real penetration threat and not nearly a good enough shooter to make up for the lack of big-time elite skills. Defensively he competes, but the size is a big disadvantage. Really nice feel for the game on both ends. If he can end up somewhere with a good defensive scheme and another initiator — freeing him up to shoot off movement or attack bent defenses — he could be useful.
Markus Howard (5-foot-11, guard)
The Numbers: Career 43% on 7.2 3PA, this season 41% on 10.1(!) 3PA. 88% over four years from the free throw line.
The Qualitative Stuff (Mechanics, Variety, Touch):
A short flamethrower with a high-release, two-motion shot, something very rare in the modern era — he makes it work and gets it off in all manner of ways. His shooting is beyond reproach. Touch, mechanics, variety — all there.
What does the rest of his game look like? He’s below six feet tall, was one of the nation's leading scorers for a few years, and a pick-and-roll scoring maestro. Probably not a point guard; probably a one-position, negative defender. He drew tons of free throws in college. The absolutely elite shooting and scoring will always find a place on NBA benches, especially as big initiators fill the league. He’s not that athletic for a shorter guard dynamo.
Elijah Hughes (6-foot-6, wing)
The Numbers: Career 34% on 6.1 3PA, this season 34% on 7.1 3PA. 78% FT% in three years.
The Qualitative Stuff (Mechanics, Variety, Touch):
Release is a tad slow, but very clean and very high. He ain’t afraid to let it fly, taking lots of midrange isolation jumpers and having a decent success clip with them. He didn’t offer much off movement, mostly isolation and catch-and-shoot, both of which were solid.
What does the rest of his game look like? Hughes doesn’t really excel at much else. He has a little bounce and good size/frame, so he can chip in with rebounding and playing on the block a bit, but not much of a passer or defender. The marquee skill is the ability to shoot and shoot off the dribble with size, but that’s something he’s only OK at, not amazing. Spending a few years in the Syracuse zone probably didn't help his defense either.
Payton Pritchard (6-foot-1, guard)
The Numbers: Career 38% on 5.3 3PA, this season 41% on 6.8 3PA. 80% FT% for his career.
The Qualitative Stuff (Mechanics, Variety, Touch):
He has a bit of a hunch shooting and kinda heaves it a bit, but can’t argue with the results. He’s a knockdown shooter, and that’s despite taking a pretty wild selection of jumpshot attempts, including a heavy off-the-dribble diet. Shot selection, and therefore percentages, will likely go up with a lesser role in the NBA.
What does the rest of his game look like? Pritchard loves to run and look for his own offense; loves to dribble the ball a lot; trusts his off-the-dribble shooting. He’s a bit of a gunner, but was able to make it work and use the gravity from his speed and shot to involve teammates. He’ll be fighting an uphill battle due to size, less athleticism, and lesser agility, but is well built and can make teams pay as the fourth or fifth option.
Justinian Jessup (6-foot-7, wing/shooting guard)
The Numbers: Career 40% on 6.2 3PA, this season 40% on 7.7 3PA. Career 83% FT, 96% (!) as a senior (70-73).
The Qualitative Stuff (Mechanics, Variety, Touch):
High, lefty release, not unlike Luke Kennard or Joe Ingles. Gets it off smooth off the bounce, off motion, set, left, right, you name it. Has solid touch, probably challenging Bane for the best shooter in the draft.
What does the rest of his game look like? Activeness and awareness: he’s a willing passer out of the pick-and-roll and a willing cutter off-ball. Solid steal and block rates for a guard point to good feel and timing, but he’s not super athletic and not strong yet, so defensively he can still be a target. His handle is tight enough to manipulate out of the PnR, and he uses it to get to his jumpshot, though not so much to get to the rim off the dribble.
Ty-Shon Alexander (6-foot-4, guard)
The Numbers: Over the last two years of college he shot 38% on 7.2 3PA. His FT% also hit 86% this year as a junior.
The Qualitative Stuff (Mechanics, Variety, Touch):
(Video credit to Zach Milner at The Stepien)
Nice, high release. Reminiscent of O.J. Mayo (don’t laugh!). He loves hopping into the shot. Mostly a high-volume spot-up shooter, not much off the bounce or movement.
What does the rest of his game look like? A true 3-and-D guard with a 6-foot-8 wingspan. He loves to get in ball handlers’ shirts and suffocate them; a legitimately great guard defender 1-on-1. He’s not strong enough to do the same to wings yet. Shaky handle; he’s not really blowing by anyone, and also isn’t a good finisher. Unremarkable passer. Just on the merits of his 3-point shooting and defense, though, he’ll probably be in the league for a long time.
Myles Powell (6-foot-2, guard)
The Numbers: Two poor shooting years (33% 3P% as a frosh; 30% as a senior) sandwich two good ones (38% soph; 36% junior), VERY high attempts each year (eight 3PA per), plus 80% from the line.
The Qualitative Stuff (Mechanics, Variety, Touch):
He has a clean 1.5 motion shot, not a low release; gets elevation on his jumpers. Comfortable off the catch, off the move, and off the dribble. He even shortened up the motion for quick trigger shots sometimes, for better or worse. Very good touch around the rim is a good indicator too. He was the offense for Seton Hall, so as his usage shifts to better shots and more off ball usage, the 3P% will tick up.
What does the rest of his game look like? He’s not overly explosive, but blows by people because of the combo of shooting threat and great handle. Likely looking at a nice efficiency bump in the NBA with less offense on his shoulders. Comfortable in crowds. He can playmake decently, albeit reactively, from his own gravity. His Assist-to-turnover rate (AST:TO) is roughly 1:1, not great for a 6-foot-2 guard who handles the ball a lot. Bad man-to-man defender — and not just because of size — but solid passing lane instincts (2.4% steal rate).
Jahmi’us Ramsey (6-foot-4, guard)
The Numbers: 42% on 5.2 3PA, 64% at the line on a low amount of attempts (2.9 FTA).
The Qualitative Stuff (Mechanics, Variety, Touch):
Pretty smooth, likes to elevate. No trouble getting into it off the catch or off the dribble. Takes some bad shots, makes some bad shots.
What does the rest of his game look like? Inconsistent at best as a flamethrower type who can quickly get hot or become a frustrating chucker. While lauded for his defensive prowess heading into his tenure at Texas Tech, his performance on the court did not live up to the reputation. He did manage to generate turnovers at a decent rate (2.5% STL), so there’s still equity in his defensive skill set (2.5% BLK as well). He struggles to creative gravity and does not pass out of situations, which is represented by his nearly 1:1 AST:TO ratio.
Kaleb Wesson (6-foot-9, center)
The Numbers: Last season 42% on 3.4 3PA; career 38% on 2.0 3PA, 73% on 5.2 FTA.
The Qualitative Stuff (Mechanics, Variety, Touch):
(Video courtesy of Adam Spinella)
Very soft touch around the rim and in the post; pretty feathery touch from three, too. Operates almost solely off the catch in pick-and-pop setting. His shot is a little slow, but good, consistent footwork and shot prep (and being tall) helps.
What does the rest of his game look like? Primarily a rim-running big with a pick-and-pop game (44% on catch-and-shoot threes). He flashes a post game but may not be reliable due to poor footwork/body movement — relies on weight more than technique. Big body — was over 275 lbs. — but allegedly is now down 15-20 from that. Low stocks numbers (1.5% STL, 4.0% BLK) are not indicative of his ability to affect passing lanes and disrupt plays, especially with him dropping weight in the offseason. Good rebounder too, as you would expect at his size.
Mitch Ballock (6-foot-5, guard)
The Numbers: Career 40% 3P% on six 3PA, including 44% on seven 3PA this year as a junior. Hit 11 of 12 threes in one game. 76% from the line for his career.
The Qualitative Stuff (Mechanics, Variety, Touch):
(Video courtesy of Adam Spinella)
Textbook gorgeous lefty form. Majority of shots are off the catch and off movement and screens. Legit 30-plus foot range off the catch.
What does the rest of his game look like? Ballock knows where to run and how to move off ball, be it filling the corners in transition, coming off decoy movement ready to shoot, cutting backdoor, or screening for others. He’s a willing ball mover, as indicated by his 3:1 AST:TO ratio. He doesn’t really take it to the rack or dribble much, as indicated by his .760 3PR compared to his sub-.200 FTR. He’s also not that athletic: steal rate below 2% and block rate below 1% despite being 6-foot-5 with a wingspan that is probably two to three inches longer. A big key for him will be developing the ability to “Danny Green,” AKA pump fake, take 1-2 dribbles, and kick.
Thoughts on the shooters
For all the talk of the 2020 draft being weak, this class might have the most shooters of any in recent memory, in terms of raw 3-point shooting proficiency. There’s tons of late-pick shooters compared to prior years; on top of that, the lottery and mid-first round contain a solid number of top-notch shooters in Devin Vassell, Bane, Joe, Saddiq Bey, Cole Anthony and Tyrell Terry. What does having so many shooters in this class mean for front offices?
One implication is that parsing the useful ones from the useless ones means a lot more this year than prior ones. If more teams are loading up on role-playing shooters and you waste a pick on a shooter who busts, you’re losing the arms race. With that in mind, it’s likely reasonable for a front to be lower on the guys who are good but not great shooters and have less to offer in the way of ancillary skills, including defense — Hughes, Pritchard, Howard and Nwora come to mind. Someone like Joe isn’t exactly bursting with non-shooting value, but his shooting/size combo is nuclear enough to render those concerns about passing, consistent defense and driving irrelevant in the late first round. There’s a big difference between an OK shooter with size versus a great one, and Joe has some indicators he might be great. Guys like Nwora and Hughes can shoot, but don’t project to be defense-warping shooters and don’t offer nearly enough else in their game to make up for not clearing that admittedly high bar.
Another implication is that spacing for NBA offenses is only going to become more and more intense, for a few reasons beyond “just” the influx of shooting. Many of these guard shooters couldn’t be depended on to run an offense, but will do just fine getting 15-30 minutes alongside big playmakers. Some of them may even flourish if they have a bit more size and defensive capacity (looking at you, Ty-Shon).
The 2021 draft class — for all its talent, size, and athleticism — doesn’t have nearly the same level of shooting at any point in the class. So if the Knicks have a chance to use 27 and 38 on shooting, they shouldn’t sleep on that option. Next year is the year to go upside swing on non-shooters, and this year they have the luxury of going different routes at No. 8, but still nabbing one or two impact shooters late. They can potentially even go buy a late pick too, if they want.
What to make of these undersized guards prospects?
Evaluating these players is tricky and likely depends on what your goal is: are you looking for a microwave? Someone with true starting point guard upside? Or a dependable, quality backup, a la Tyus Jones? Those are three easy-to-identify genres of undersized guards. Howard is the most gifted scorer of the short guards, even including Winston and Flynn, so he clearly seems like a reliable pick if you want a flamethrower off the bench. Ditto Myles Powell. We haven’t covered Winston and Flynn here, but they, along with Mannion, all have great feel for managing the game, balancing passing and scoring, and could probably be very capable backups. The difference between Flynn and the other two is he projects to have fewer holes in his game, as he’s a strong finisher (unlike Winston and Mannion) and a more functional NBA athlete.
There seem to be many solid (if unspectacular) picks for shooters, but do any steals for the Knicks stand out?
There’s also something to be said about traditional draft day inefficiencies like age and school tiers. No one is looking for impact guys out of Boise State, TCU, and SDSU most years, so if a prospect from schools like those doesn’t BURST off the page with upside (a la Kawhi Leonard or CJ McCollum) or popularity (Jimmer Fredette), they will likely fall further than they should. Hell, if Brandon Clarke and his 40 inch vert from a big name school could fall 20 spots, a lot of these shooters could drop past the 40th pick. That probably applies to Jessup, who is older and went to Boise State, and will fall despite being a tall sniper. Merrill also has a good combination of elite shooting, size, and activity (both on defense and on offense, where he has a high 3PR and high FTR). Those two might straight up be undrafted, despite being two of the top five shooters in the draft. Also, if the Knicks did end up with Killian Hayes, a point guard who can defend 2s and wings, you could justify taking a shorter shooter who defends, like Quickley or Alexander, and those could be considered steals in that scenario.
OK, enough hedging, guys. Who provides the most valuable shooting of this bunch*?
So no Bane, Terry, Anthony, Nesmith, or Lewis here, since they’re all expected to go mid first, probably no later than 20. Take us home!
*This phrasing is intentional, to include shooting at size as a factor since it’s easier to go find a 5-foot-8 elite shooter, but their shooting doesn’t change the game in the NBA as much as someone 6-foot-8. But someone who is short with incredible range/variety, like Trae Young, has incredibly valuable shooting as well. This question is not asking which of the late shooters are most valuable prospects, since that’s 1) what we discussed earlier and 2) what our big board is for.
Tyrese
Justinian Jessup
Killian Tillie
Sam Merrill
Isaiah Joe
Payton Pritchard
Prez
Isaiah Joe
Killian Tillie
Justinian Jessup
Sam Merrill
Immanuel Quickley
