Devon Dotson: The gritty guard the Knicks need

So, who is Devon Dotson?

Devon Dotson is a 21-year-old, 6-foot-2, 185 lb sophomore guard from Kansas University. Last season, he averaged 18.1 points, 4.0 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.4 steals a game on 47% shooting, 31% from three, and 83% from the charity stripe. He also managed to make Bill Self’s clogged toilet of an offense look respectable on most nights, an accomplishment stats can’t quite capture.

While I realize Dotson is not the sexiest pick on the board, you have to contextualize what a 27th pick overall can bring you and how his skills would translate in the NBA. Kansas’ floor general has one big skill that can make him a contributor to any second unit in the NBA: speed that changes the geometry of the game on any level. He scored 3.02 seconds in the straight line sprint at the NBA combine, only .01 seconds behind this decade’s record holder. That record holder? A very obscure guy named Donovan Mitchell. You probably don’t know him. 

Dude’s fast.

Ok. Great. The Knicks lack athleticism, both of the speedy variety and the high flyer variety. But we’re not in the business of signing bumbling sprinters.

What can Devon Dotson and his speed bring the Knicks?

1. Getting to the goddamn rim!

How long has it been since the Knicks had a point guard who could blow by his defender and get to the rim? We got three months of Raymond Felton doing it in 2013 and it’s been a whole lot of nothing ever since: Jose Calderon, One-legged Jarrett Jack, our boy Frank not totally getting it together, etc. That won’t be a problem with Dotson, who is by far the fastest player of this years’ crop, alongside Kira Lewis. It’s not clear who is faster, exactly, but Dotson did beat everyone in the sprinting test. Make of that what you will.

Devon Dotson’s ability to get to the rim, along with his toughness and his ability to finish through contact, make him interesting for NBA offenses, because you can use him on and off the ball. He’s a terrific cutter and an athletic jumper (40 inch vertical) who can finish under or above the rim. While he’s not quite cut out to be a lead ball handler (not enough of a natural passer), he can be a threat on or off the ball. 

2. Toughness and defense

He is one tough motherfucker. Dotson took contact from every big body in the Big 12 for the last two years and came out with a whopping 60% efficiency when finishing around the rim. When was the last time the Knicks had a ball handling guard — or PLAYER — who could finish at the rim? Outside of Melo, you probably have to go back to Starbury, or even to Sprewell or Starks. A kid who can collapse a defense and then take damage and still finish — doesn’t that scream “old school Knick mentality” to you? He is not happy unless he gets that contact and finishes over the help defender. He giddily seeks it out. It gives him life.

Although he’s been cursed with a Stephen Curry-esque wingspan of 6-foot-3.5, Dotson’s a hard-nosed on-ball defender who allowed 0.44 points per possession alongside his 1.4 steals a game in his sophomore year. It would be unfair to expect similar stats in the pros, but he’s an ace pickpocket who enjoys wreaking some havoc in the open court. He operates in your shirt, not unlike Pat Beverly. Here’s some defensive highlights, courtesy of the irreplaceable Hoop Intellect:

Hear that? That’s the sound of Tom Thibodeau is squeeing in his office.

3. Pick-and-roll playmaking

Devon Dotson was heavily criticized for dumping entry passes to his pick-and-roll outlet Udoka Azubuike (AKA College Shaq) all the time at Kansas… and it’s kind of true. He dumped entry passes to Azubuike for cheeseball points all the time. But he didn’t have much choice to begin with. It was either that or dash to the rim on every possession. Whenever he was given other opportunities than dump to Azubuike, he almost always made the right read, even if the play was difficult:

The Jayhawks didn’t run a Jay Wright, democratic, NBA Movement-filled offense, and yet they ranked by many metrics as top 15 on that side of the ball.

Despite the lack of enticing options on offense, Dotson constantly found a way to keep his team going and he made it look easy. He ranked top 16% of all pick-and-roll scorers in college.  Now imagine what he could do if given a big like Mitchell Robinson to cook with. Pick-and-roll is all about decision making, and Devon Dotson showed that quality and, most importantly, consistency in his decision making, lifting the Jayhawks to a 28-3 record in his sophomore season. 

What is there to worry about?

1. Physical profile

Although he’s an elite athlete, Dotson is not a physical freak. Merely 6-foot-2 with a wingspan to match, Knicks fans would have to tamper expectations at the next level. He is not some kind of sleeper that will dominate the game in an efficient, properly-spaced offense. The concerns of him being a turbo Shane Larkin are a little melodramatic for my tastes, but they are not out-of-this-world crazy.

2. Creation

Whether he’s creating for himself or for others, he’s a little bit of a liability outside of the pick-and-roll. Part of that is due to the fact that he plays out of control. He’s over reliant on his preternatural speed to blow by unprepared defenders and make something happen, and it backfired on him a considerable amount of times in Kansas.

Adjusted responsibilities, better spacing, and maturity will take care of some of these issues, but he’ll need to play off the ball at times to optimize his value. Developing a reliable league average 3-point shot is a major make-or-break issue for him. Which leads me to…

3. Shooting

Alright, alright, alright. Is he a shooter? He is NOT a non-shooter. He’s just an inconsistent one, which is common for college players with huge scoring loads. Dotson shot 36% on 2.5 threes per game as a frosh and 30% on higher volume as a sophomore (when he had a higher usage rate). The stroke is good. The percentages are very encouraging in other areas (83% from the free throw line, often considered an indicator for future shooting success), but the 3-ball was not quite falling this year. What is wrong with it exactly?

Well… first, he’s taking a lot of them for an inconsistent shooter — 4.1 per game in 2019-20. He wants to make something happen even when it’s not there. You admire the willingness, but wonder if it’s too much.

Mechanically, he’s pretty solid, except his release is rather low — though you can see in the above video there’s a little funk in the windup sometimes. He also takes a second before loading up. It’s a mechanical hitch that will cause him problems in the NBA. He’s already quite short-limbed, so the low release and funky windup can be a problem against rangy defenders. He can make them when he’s unguarded, though. From any range.

He’s going to be called on to take many, many more unguarded shots in the NBA. That’s why I think he would peak as a secondary creator. But if he can ditch the hitch and kick his pick-and-roll scoring into overdrive while being an off ball threat, that’s a nice high-end secondary to have.

Why should the Knicks draft Devon Dotson?

I was pitching Dotson the exact same way to a scout I know who was absolutely not convinced and he told me: “So, he’s supersized, turbo-charged DJ Augustin?”

“Yes, that is exactly who he is.”

Leave it to professionals to be more concise than I ever could. If his development is optimal (and he’s developed quite well in his sophomore year in Kansas), he projects to be an athletic scoring guard who can lead the offense in a pinch. The type of depth piece the Knicks haven’t had on the roster in… I don’t know, forever? This is not a draft where New York should be thinking outside the box too hard and swing for the fences. 

Dotson is steady, he has tools that already apply to NBA settings (and that would already fit with the Knicks) and his physical profile would make him an ideal bench option. Most late-draft point guard options are produced by juggling 27 different good-not-great skills that let them dominate in college, but Dotson actually has NBA-ready skills. Let’s take those proven skills to the bank, and let’s go for depth, guys. Let’s trade Dennis Smith Jr., draft Devon Dotson, and get creative with some three guard lineups. Let’s pester back courts, get in transition, get the Garden jumping, and get the feeling back.