Late Round Point Guards, Part 3: Malachi Flynn
While much of the focus of Knicks’ draftosphere has been on who they will take with the 8th pick/whether they will trade up for LaMelo Ball/whether Tyrese Halliburton will ever make a pull-up three in the NBA, the Knicks do have two other picks at 27 and 38. Unless Killian Hayes falls to 8 or the Knicks trade back, it is highly likely the Knicks will take a wing with the 8th pick. Even if they don’t, the end of the first round looks to be especially deep at the guard position. With playmaking and shooting both being massive needs for the Knicks, this three-part deep-dive series takes a look at three PGs who might be in play and could be useful late picks.
Malachi Flynn, PG, San Diego State University
6-foot-2, 185 lbs, 22 Years Old
Strengths
Flynn is a very polished point guard, and was probably the best pick-and-roll player in college basketball last season. He takes smart angles around screens, changes speeds to keep the defense off balance, forces the defense to commit, and can hit the roll man as well as the weak side. The live ball passes I saw looked easy and comfortable for him, and he’s excellent at using his eyes to manipulate defenses. He showed creativity and patience in creating passing angles, accuracy to hit tight windows (particularly on pocket passes, including some live ball flashes), and the ability to make every pass out of the pick and roll.
Look at the patience here to sidestep the double, wait for the angle to open up, and throw a live ball pass with his left hand to the rolling big for an easy finish:
This is another excellent pass out of the pick-and-roll. Flynn calls for the re-screen, drives, and lofts an inch-perfect soft pass over the help defender that gets there before the tag man does. You can see just how much of a maestro Flynn is with his vision, pace, and passing accuracy in the pick and roll.
In addition to his feel in the pick-and-roll, Flynn is a deadly pull-up shooter against whom defenses simply will not be able to go under screens. He gets into his shooting motion quickly, and he has a quick one-motion release with a nice sweep-and-sway landing. He has a very consistent motion in his upper body, a high, repeatable release, and excellent results. In addition to pull-ups, he also has a sidestep jumper and step-back jumper from 3-point range.
Here’s a sidestep in iso:
And here’s a deep pull-up after his defender goes under the screen:
Beautiful step back here, look at the space creation:
I love how Flynn uses the hesitation here to give the roller time to roll and force the help defender into a tough decision. The hesitation freezes the defender, then Malachi hard dribbles to threaten the drive and pulls up suddenly:
Here’s another pull-up, but what’s notable is how far back the defender is in transition. All it takes is one hard dribble for Malachi to freeze the defender, and look how much space he’s able to create for the pull-up. This is a wide open three the defense is conceding to an excellent shooter, and while the defender probably could have positioned himself a little better, this speaks to how worried opposing teams are of Flynn’s ability to drive. Buy the space creation:
Flynn does have a tendency to kick his right leg forward when shooting. I think he developed it as a way to draw fouls, but sometimes it drifts forward even if there’s no defender around. It doesn’t seem to be affecting his results and I’m not concerned, but it’s worth noting.
Flynn’s pull-up shooting is enabled by his strong ball handling ability. He is excellent at creating space using hesis, crossovers, and using advanced combinations.
Check out the in-and-out to freeze the help defender here before he explodes to the rim for the and-1:
Here, he toys with the defender with a couple of crossovers before driving and stopping on a dime into a behind the back crossover. Great space creation here — and while, yes, he will see better defenders in the NBA, the ability to stop and change direction as well as the ball handling should translate:
He has very good acceleration and is excellent at changing speeds. I saw more blow-bys on his film than I was expecting. Flynn also has very good deceleration, and there are many instances of him stopping on a dime to pop the jump shot while his defender is clutching at air, still moving in the wrong direction.
Watch him split the double here and pay attention to the acceleration to the hole. He goes straight from the crossover into the hole and explodes through for an easy layup, looking like a running back:
Here is another example of great acceleration, with Flynn blowing by his man by enough to be able to slow down, allow the help defender to pass, and still pin his recovering man behind him to create the easy finish:
Here’s another blow-by after a slight hesitation to freeze the help defender:
And here’s a double crossover into a blow-by again:
Flynn also has soft touch on his floater and likes to go to it in the midrange. If he can’t get all the way to the rim, the pull-up middy or floater seem like viable tools in his arsenal to keep defenses honest.
And when he did get to the rim, Flynn was a solid finisher despite lacking elite athleticism or size. Flynn shot 58% in the half court, and that number went up to 62% in pick-and-roll, double handoff, and iso situations (h/t to Spencer Pearlman for these numbers). That’s far superior to Kira Lewis Jr., LaMelo Ball, and Killian Hayes, who are all ranked above Flynn on most draft boards. Flynn is unlikely to live at the rim like a guy like Ja Morant, but his craft and touch should allow him to finish, and he’ll have his opportunities there due to his acceleration and shooting ability. Nuclear athleticism is not necessary to be an elite finisher in the NBA if you have great touch, as guys like Steph Curry, Tony Parker, and Steve Nash have showed. I know he is unlikely to end up at that level, but I’m bullish that he can shoot something like 60% at the rim at the next level on decent volume.
Check out the body control, ability to absorb the contact, and finish from an awkward angle here:
Here he gets bumped on the drive, powers through, then finishes with the left despite contact from a bigger defender (and look, he’s even learned to complain about no calls like an NBA player!):
Despite not having the biggest frame, Flynn has the strength to finish through contact, the touch and body control to contort for difficult finishes, and the ability to finish comfortably with both hands. He should be a capable finisher at the next level.
Though he was primarily used on-ball, Malachi showed excellent catch-and-shoot ability as well as some ability to shoot off movement, though admittedly he did this less often. The few times he was run off ball it was primarily on flare screens. Flynn showed a good ability to read screens and create space, 1-2ing into his shot and releasing quickly. Given his footwork off the dribble and mechanics, I think he’ll be capable of playing off ball and even being a movement shooter.
This is a special play that shows the kind of versatility Flynn can bring at the guard position. He penetrates into the teeth of the defense, then hits the near corner for a three. The shooter in the corner beats the closeout for a drive. For most point guards (what up, Elfrid) your job is done here, right? Instead, Flynn relocates, finds space at the 3-point line, then sidesteps the closeout and resets into a gorgeous 3-pointer:
Here he is in a hostile road environment at Utah State catching, avoiding a defender, and shooting an NBA-range 3-pointer at the shot clock buzzer. Smooth:
Again at Utah State, here Flynn comes off a DHO and pulls up immediately, again from deep. Miami used Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson similarly to torch defenses, and with Flynn’s footwork, form, and quick release, you can see how this could translate:
Offensively, Flynn shows the chops to be an efficient pick-and-roll operator in the NBA who can penetrate into the teeth of the defense, make the correct reads, and ruthlessly punish those who go under screens, while playing with the requisite pace to allow those around him to flourish and force the defense into difficult situations. Sometimes his size causes him to make the reads a second slower than someone bigger like Killian Hayes would make them, but usually he knows what to do. He’s also more than capable of creating space for his jump shot — even without a screen — and his shooting ability bodes well for playing off-ball with another initiator as well. He should be an offensive weapon who is equally capable of being the floor general of an offense and a chess piece to bend defenses with his shooting. If you need further convincing, check out all the red on his shot chart (from NBA.com and Synergy):
On defense, Flynn’s lateral speed, motor, quick hands, and instincts allowed him to be elite in college despite being undersized. On ball, he shows the ability to mirror an offensive player’s movements and the feet to stay in front of them. Off ball, he has elite awareness and does a good job of understanding when to cheat or gamble for steals, either with a timely double or jumping a passing lane. His 3.2% steal rate despite just a 6-foot-3 wingspan is a testament to his quickness and instincts. Here’s two minutes of defense from him, courtesy of Babcock Hoops:
He should be able to fight to neutral or perhaps even a slight positive as a defender in the NBA, with the ability to hold up and be aggressive at the point of attack while also generating enough events off ball to make up for the times he’ll be hunted on switches. Aside from those calculated gambles (on which he’s right much more often than not), Flynn is always in the right place. He doesn’t miss rotations, is always engaged, and has excellent feel and the ability to read and implement audibles on the fly.
I was particularly impressed with this play, where he gets switched onto a much bigger player who immediately posts him up. Nevertheless, Flynn battles back and perfectly times his reach to get the steal and earn a fast break layup. This shows his instincts, understanding of leverage and body control, and quick hands, all of which will help him hold up tremendously as a defender in the NBA:
Here’s another example of Flynn’s sharp defensive instincts and attention to detail, this time off the ball. Look as his man cuts, but Flynn notices the big is not aware of him, leaves his man, and pokes the ball up court for a fast break:
Weaknesses
Despite his quickness, ball handling, and pull-up ability, Flynn doesn’t quite live at the rim the way one might hope. His middling .332 free throw rate is proof of that. It’s solid, but not astronomical considering his quickness and frequency in pick-and-roll. For comparison, Fred VanVleet, to whom Flynn is often compared, posted free throw rates of .487, .476, and .393 his last three seasons at Wichita State. To be fair, Kira Lewis Jr., a prospect most people have ranked ahead of Flynn and who else spent a lot of time in a wide-open spread PnR offense, only had a FTR of .293 this year. So this isn’t a massive knock on Flynn by any means, and when you consider he took about 50% of his shots from 3-point range (at a very high accuracy), the FTR doesn’t look as bad.
But those expecting him to be a devastating, unstoppable three-level force are likely to be slightly disappointed. He projects to be a prolific 3-point shooter who can beat defenders off the dribble if they go over screens and pull up if they go under, and he has the quickness and craftiness to be a competent, if not efficient finisher. But it’s that size and decent-but-not-great ability to get to the rim and the free throw line (where he shot an excellent 85.7%) that keeps his ceiling closer to above-average starting point guard as opposed to an All-Star.
In addition, though his light feet, lateral agility, motor, and instincts should help him fight to a defensive outcome, he will be targeted on switches, particularly in the playoffs. Teams have managed this (look at the Celtics with Kemba Walker), but it will be an issue his team will have to game plan around, and those guards have to offer an awful lot on offense to make up for that. Even beyond switches, while he won’t get blown by too much because of his quickness, quick, physical guards will be able to overpower him if they get a step. Russell Westbrook, Marcus Smart, Jimmy Butler… thicc guards who are quick enough to get a step will be problematic for him. Lastly, you can do everything right on-ball and still be ineffectual at his size, because even if you are physical and don’t get shook, most players can just shoot over the top of you without being bothered. Similarly, the size leaves less margin for error when playing in passing lanes and helping off-ball.
At 22 years old, it’s fair to ask: how much remaining upside does Flynn have, and how much of his success was helped by facing less experienced and less physically mature players in the Mountain West? Fairly or unfairly, part of the reason Flynn is considered a fringe first rounder at this point is the combination of the level of competition he faced and his age.
Overall
It is very difficult to find a good (as in, above-average starter) point guard outside the top seven picks. See this excellent article by Prez and Tyrese London for more on that.
But there can be diamonds in the rough found outside this range, rare as they may be. As they point out in the article, in 2009, several starting-caliber point guards were drafted in the late teens (Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague), and more recently Malcolm Brogdon was a second rounder. So rare, yes, but not unheard of.
At a minimum, it seems like barring physically dominant traits, a point guard who can add value as a starter on a contender needs to have high-level pull-up shooting ability, pick-and-roll savvy, high offensive feel, and the ability to penetrate and make plays. In addition, they need to be a good enough team defender to at least win back some of the value they are giving away on defense. Malachi Flynn has these traits in spades. In the reasonable scenario in which he can shoot above league average both on catch-and-shoots and off the dribble from three, get into the paint a few times a game, set up some drive-and-kicks, and be able to generate events on defense, he can be a starting-caliber point guard. If he translates as a truly lethal high-volume high-efficiency pull-up guy and adds a little bit of strength? We could be talking about someone special, and a steal at the 27th pick.
Fit on the Knicks
If the Knicks decide to take a wing with the eighth pick, Flynn could allow them to still nab a potential point guard of the future at the 27th pick — if he’s on the board. Contending teams without long-term point guards ahead of them like Miami and Dallas will likely give him a long look.
Even if Flynn doesn’t hit a high percentile outcome in New York, he likely has a solid floor as a backup, which is also a need for the Knicks, who only have Dennis Smith Jr. and Frank Ntilikina as signed point guard options for next season. Flynn is a far superior shooter to both, and in fact would be the best shooting point guard the Knicks have had since… I mean, Jose Calderon shot 40% but on like three attempts per game and he had that slow-ass release. Flynn is way more dynamic. A savvy, low-turnover, playmaking point guard who can penetrate and shoot would be a massive boon to everyone on this team, and his skill in the pick-and-roll should be especially beneficial to Mitchell Robinson.
