Maximizing Leon’s Muse: Building the best possible structure for Jalen Brunson
The Knicks have their 1A star, but with one of their top role players gone in free agency, how can Leon Rose maximize Jalen Brunson’s tenure with the Knicks?
I cannot say exactly what Leon Rose’s long-term vision for Knicks roster construction was when he first became President of Basketball Operations for the Knicks. Based on his connections as an agent, we all assume that the endgame was bringing mega stars to The Mecca. Names that would light up marquees. Faces that would make good bobbleheads. Proven commodities that would win championships and line pockets. Two or three of them at once, even!
Many things have changed in his relatively short (yet also almost impossibly long) tenure at Madison Square Garden, which has disrupted his calculus, the new CBA chief among them. However, nothing has changed the game plan as drastically as Jalen Brunson’s emergence as a valid 1A option on a contending team. I do not think Rose planned for it, but kudos to him for recognizing what was right in front of him and adjusting the approach.
The aim now is a different infrastructure. Every move should be driven by one question: "How does this maximize Brunson’s potential?”
Basketball is a chess match, and there are a million ways to answer that question. Any move to build around Brunson must consider his defensive limitations. Every Knick fan understands that, but set it aside for this reading. Instead, let’s focus on what Brunson needs around him offensively to be at his best.
To do that, we’ll explore Brunson’s playoff performance and analyze two things. First, how does he generate offense for himself? His ideal teammates would be foils to what he does to avoid redundancy. Second, we’ll look at how he generated offense for teammates. What spots on the floor are the most fruitful for the planets that orbit New York’s sun? We’ll then examine how current Knicks fit that mold and close by discussing two players who might be ideal offensive teammates for Brunson.
Now that I’ve laid out a road map that my high school debate coach would swoon over, let’s jump in.
Brunson’s playoff creation
Brunson was a monster in the playoffs. Every player and coach on the opposing sidelines knew he would be the Knicks' primary offensive engine. He was second in the league behind Joel Embiid in playoff usage among players who played at least 200 minutes. Despite defenses keying in on him, he was unstoppable for large stretches as the Knicks fell one win short of a Conference Finals appearance.
The counting stats start to paint the picture. Below is Brunson’s playoff shot chart, per Positive Residual:
Brunson averaged 32.4 points per game, also good for second behind Embiid. That’s a fantastic number, but the shooting splits leave room for growth. Brunson shot just 44/31/78 figures during the playoff run. It took him 26 shots a night to get those 32 points. The playoff run was both a superstar turn and a war of attrition.
Not all shots are created equally, and how Brunson got his offense is worth studying. According to the NBA’s play type data, Brunson got nearly 75% of his playoff offense from three play types: isolation (23.2%), handoffs (9.9%), and pick-and-roll ball handler (40.4%). Brunson had a weighted average of 0.94 points per possession (PPP) across those three play types for two rounds of playoff basketball. Brunson’s ideal offensive teammate would be a player who got a large portion of their offense from complimentary play types. Brunson would work well with players where cuts, spot-ups, and rolls heavily comprise their offensive arsenal.
Not only were there patterns in Brunson’s shot diet throughout the playoffs, but there was consistency in where he generated shots for others on the floor. Brunson had 97 total assists across 13 playoff games. Of those assists, 42% came in the paint/restricted area, and 34% came via above-the-break threes.
Combining play type and court locations traces the profile of Brunson’s ideal offensive running mate. A player who gets a bulk of their offensive from cutting, rolling, and spotting up, who also shot efficiently from the paint and above the break, would excel playing next to Brunson and his particular creation style.
Before we look around the league at great potential fits, let’s discuss who Brunson already has in New York and how they fit.
How current Knicks fit the mold
I’m not a compliment sandwich guy. It couches the feedback people need to hear between two pieces of fluff, and that good stuff is usually what they remember and not the necessary areas for growth. So let’s just rip the band-aid off now. One of the best fits next to Brunson just walked out the door.
Isaiah Hartenstein got over 50% of his offense from Brunson’s three complimentary play types and scored an efficient 1.24 PPP on them. On top of that, his true shooting percentage in both the restricted area and the paint was above league average. Losing that offensive fit hurts because no other Knick had his combination of volume across all three play types and efficiency last year.
Here’s how other current Knicks fared:
As you can see, other current Knicks are all over the board here. Sure, several guys score above-average PPP across those play types, but none of them are that perfect complement to Brunson.
Robinson has the highest PPP but has a low relative volume, and offers nothing in the way of spotting up or stretching the floor beyond the restricted area. DiVincenzo and McBride are above league average in PPP and shooting above the break, but neither is operating as the roll man out of pick-and-roll opportunities. Bridges and Randle have some volume at each of the three play types, but they account for less than 30% of their total offensive output, and both struggled with efficiency in key floor locations last year. Hart is where you would want a Brunson teammate to be in terms of offensive percentage, but he also struggled with efficiency.
It’s hard to find players to pair with Brunson who check every box. Every current Knick provides some weapon at Brunson’s disposal. But what if I told you there was a pair of current Western Conference teammates who might fit even better? What’s more, what if I told you that one of them checks every single box?
Do the Knicks want to deal with Danny?
The Jazz have two players who would be an ideal offensive fit next to Brunson. Getting at least 35% of their offense from cutting, rolling, and spotting up? Check. Scoring above average on those three play types? Check. Efficient from the right areas of the court? Check. No Knicks fan wants to deal with Danny Ainge, but it may be in Rose’s best interest if the aim is to maximize Brunson.
Let’s start with Walker Kessler. Kessler is the closest offensive approximation the Knicks could find to replace Hartenstein. Check out more granular breakdowns of their offensive data:
They are eerily similar, but the headline here is that Kessler got a higher percentage of offense from the three complementary play types and scored higher PPP on them than Hartenstein did last season. It should be noted that Kessler’s shot chart leaves some room for growth. He has a higher true shooting percentage around the rim than Hartenstein, but his numbers take a swift nose dive in the rest of the paint. Still, Kessler barely scratches the surface of what his teammate could do with and for Brunson. (Not to mention what he would do for Clyde in the booth.)
And that player is Lauri Markkanen. Markkanen averaged 1.27 PPP on the three complimentary play types, and they accounted for 37% of his offense last year. He’d also be a balanced piece next to Brunson, as each play type accounts for a decent percentage of his total offensive output. He would be the Swiss Army Knife of efficient cutting, spotting up, and rolling that no Knick currently provides.
And just check out this shot chart per positive residual:
He may not set the world on fire in any one spot on the floor, but he is a slightly above average shooter on all of the court locations that matter next to Brunson: restricted area, paint, and above the break. His true shooting percentages in those spots are 73, 57, and 60. Put another way, last season, Markkanen was better in the restricted area than any Knick, better in the paint than any Knick, and better above the break than all Knicks but one.
More importantly, his shot chart almost looks like a mirror image of Brunson’s in terms of strengths. Pairing Brunson and Markkanen would force opposing defenses to guard the entire floor. Especially when you consider the pieces around them would include guys like Anunoby, Bridges, and DiVincenzo, who also stretch defenses.
Dealing with Ainge may end up being a necessary evil. Rose must seek to get the most out of his muse, even at the cost of the Ainge tax.
