How Mikal Bridges on the Knicks resolves the Gemini Theory
The haters sneer the newest Knick will never be who the Nets wanted him to be. They’re right — and that’s a good thing.
On the last Independence Day of the Great American Democratic Empire, the Brooklyn Nets officially traded Mikal Bridges, Keita Bates-Diop and a second-round pick to the New York Knicks for Bojan Bogdonović, Shake Milton, Mamadi Diakite, four unprotected first-round picks, a protected Milwaukee first, an unprotected first-round swap and a second-round pick. That’s a whole lot of picks! It’s a beautiful win-win trade: the Knicks get their fourth title-winning Villanova Wildcat from their 2016 and 2018 teams, while the Nets get the little brother draft pick overpay Sean Marks has been longing for as he continues to con people into thinking he’s actually good at his job. Everyone is happy!
It’s a bit upsetting that Bridges’ birthday is August 30 and not between May 21 and June 21, because I was very ready to go into a diatribe about how fitting it was that he’s a Gemini (he’s a Virgo, for those who don’t know). Nevertheless, I’m still going to plow through with this theme of duality because there are two versions of Bridges: the former Defensive Player of the Year runner-up and projected star role player versus the guy who last year had the second-highest usage on a 32-50 team (technically fourth, but Harry Giles rarely played and Lonnie Walker IV came off the bench). See how the Gemini theory fits?
Whenever you watched the Nets face the Knicks, or those rare occasions where the Nets were on a national broadcast that wasn’t attached to the Knicks, Bridges was touted as some sort of budding future star. Our beloved Mike Breen would say this all the time. This stemmed from Bridges' play late in 2022-23 after he was traded to the Nets in the Kevin Durant trade: in 27 games he averaged 26.1 points on 60.7% true shooting with a box plus/minus of 3.3. Bridges, in fact, did not maintain that level of performance last season, averaging 19.6 points on 56% true shooting with a -0.3 BPM. Those are not “future star” numbers in the slightest.
The defensive numbers imply Bridges was not the same player he’d been in Phoenix, as there is a clear decline in key defensive measurables available such as contested shots, deflections and opponent turnovers (this stat is from the matchup data). The defensive activity simply was not there last season compared to his previous five.
Then there is the overall impact decline. If you’re a super nerd when it comes to NBA stats, you should already be familiar with DARKO, a metric many – including myself – consider the crème de la crème of all-in-one metrics. Bridges’ defensive DPM has also been on the decline, as seen in the plot below. I tossed in newly minted $212.5 million man OG Anunoby as a comparison point. One player is trending up while the other is trending down.
If we were to speculate as to the reason for this decline, the most logical assumption is the combination of higher offensive usage for/and a team going absolutely nowhere. There is certainly merit to this idea: in 365 games with the Suns, Bridges’ usage – the percentage of his team’s possessions ending in him shooting a field goal or a free throw, or turning it over – was 14.7%. In 109 games with the Nets? 25.7%.
An 11% increase in offensive responsibilities for a player who for all intents and purposes was a stereotypical 3-and-D wing is certainly a shock to the system. Going from primarily open threes and attacking tilted defenses to being the one who needs to tilt the defense is no easy task. Not every play-finisher can transition into being a shot creator while also maintaining high-level defensive engagement. If Bridges had, the Nets never would’ve traded him, nor would they have been 32–50; he would have been the actual “star” he was touted as by fans and media.
This may come across as being down on Bridges, but I believe there’s something to the notion of him being completely miscast in Brooklyn. Ideally he’s not a team’s primary, secondary, or to a certain degree even tertiary option on offense; among the five starters on that Phoenix team that went to the Finals he had the fourth-highest usage rate. Bridges showed in Brooklyn that he does have more offensive ability than simply camping out in the corners, but that cannot and should not be the focal point of his offensive game – especially since it appears to come at the expense of his being an engaged defensive player. The Knicks need Phoenix Bridges, not Brooklyn Bridges.
He’s joining a roster with fellow Villanovans Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo and Josh Hart. I cannot quantify the power of friendship; however, I do think there is something to playing with your longest friends, with whom you've been through the highs and the lows and who know what it takes to win together. You can hold one another accountable on a level that’s more than merely professional. There is no way in hell Brunson, DiVincenzo or Hart are going to allow Bridges to coast on defense like he did Brooklyn. It’s no coincidence the Villanova Triumvirate all are playing the best basketball of their careers together at the same time. I might not be able to quantify it, but it’s so plain to see.
This is also arguably the most talented team Bridges has ever played on. The shots available to him are not going to be the same shots he took in Brooklyn. Defenses aren’t going to load up as much because more than likely he’ll be on the court alongside two All-NBA playmakers in Brunson and Julius Randle. Hell, Bridges hasn’t played next to a 3-point shooter as good as DiVo, who’s drilled the 10th-most 3-pointers in the NBA the past two seasons while making 40% of them. Let’s go even further: over those two seasons, Bridges has made the most corner threes; Anunoby and DiVincenzo ranked third and fourth. New York has three of the top-five corner assassins in the entire NBA!
I would be shocked if Mikal Bridges fits like O.J. Simpson’s gloves on this year’s version of the New York Knicks. He’s an elite corner three-point shooter on a team that ranked fourth in corner-three shot attempts. He doesn’t need to be a shot creator, because Brunson and Randle will do most of the heavy lifting; Brunson ranked fourth in passes per game out of drives, per NBA Stats, and he’ll have another player to kick-out to in Bridges. Defensive effort really shouldn’t be an issue, as Bridges will pair with another plus-wing defender in Anunoby and an elite defensive center in Mitchell Robinson. I have no clue whether the newest Knick fits any of the characteristics of a Virgo vs. a Gemini. The duality of Mikal should hopefully become a singularity, as he can finally continue the upward trajectory expected from his Phoenix days.
