Ranking Rooks: Quentin Grimes, Deuce McBride, and Rokas Jokubaitis
Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but someday a big trade is coming for the Knicks. They have three young guards at their disposal, all drafted this year, that could be a part of it: Quentin Grimes, Deuce McBride, and Rokas Jokubaitis. How do the three stack up?
Much has been made of the Knicks’ foibles this year, and rightfully so. Underperformance abounds as our Knickerbockers stumble around in the darkness. Yet a shining bright spot in the blackened cave that has been this season is the performance of recent Knicks draft picks.
Early on, it has been the sophomore stunners, the plus-minus powerhouses, the bench ballers, Obi Toppin and Immanuel Quickley, who have received most of the praise — and rightfully so, given their role in keeping this team from fully hitting rock bottom. Lately, as injuries and COVID have forced Thibs to reach deeper and deeper down the 15 (and counting)-man roster, the rookies have now had their turn in the sun. Quentin Grimes had a few short productive stints before exploding for 27 points and seven threes. Deuce McBride followed the same pattern, contributing in short situational stints before being thrust into starter’s minutes for two games, delivering a much-needed combination of ball control, passing, pull-up shooting, and defensive intensity.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic Ocean, another Knicks draft pick — Lithuanian point guard Rokas Jokubaitis — has been thrust into a starting role on one of the best pro teams outside of the NBA after erstwhile starting point guard and former NBA player Nick Calathes went down with an injury. All he’s done is fit seamlessly alongside former NBA forward Nikola Mirotic and former NCAA college stud Nigel Hayes as a 21-year-old lead ball handler and put up an absurd 57/53/78 slash line alongside seven assists and 3.5 turnovers per 36 minutes in 16 games.
Five young players, all talented. Seven if you include RJ Barrett and Jericho Sims. As much as we love all of them, and as much as they deserve our love, keeping all of them is untenable. Consolidation is inevitable. It might be sending some in a trade for in-season reinforcements like, I don't know, Myles Turner. It might be consolidation via a home ring swing trade aimed at an All-Star in the years to come. Either way, the front office has to confront a difficult question as a result of Assistant GM Walt Perrin’s successful drafts: they have to rank the kids. In particular, ranking the rookies, as the sophomores have pretty widely-agreed-upon higher value due to their longer track record of pro production. So how do they each stack up? How should we rank New York’s triplet of 21-year-olds: Deuce McBride, Quentin Grimes, and Rokas Jokubaitis?
An overview of the three rooks
To help me out, I have recruited my partner in penning, the Texas take-slinger himself, Tyrese London. Rese, before we answer the ultimate question, let me ask you: how do you even view these guys as prospects? What role do you think each of them is destined for? Do you think any of these guys are likely starting NBA players and if so what kind?
Tyrese: I’d say despite them all being guards to some degree, they’re wildly different as prospects and have a variety of skills that make them stand out. And even with the season so young, they have already taken significant leaps in their development.
Grimes is the best shooter of the bunch, capable of a TOUGH diet of threes — off the catch, off movement, pull-up, relocation, you name it.
That level of shooting coupled with fantastic POA defense and excellent size to guard 1-3 and the strength to potentially be switched onto small 4s in short spurts makes him the quintessential 3-and-D wing. He’s also capable of attacking closeouts and has better-than-average court vision due to his previous play style as a lead ball handler in high school and at Kansas.
Due to him having the highest floor and the most versatility among lineups, I’d say he’s the most likely to be a starter in the league, in the vein of wings such as Grayson Allen or (Dallas) Wes Matthews.
To me, Deuce is the middle ground of the three prospects. Heady defender, capable of using his wingspan and instinct to blow up coverages and create opportunities for transition buckets.
He is great shooter in his own right, especially with regards to the pull-up both from three and the midrange, which is usually his default in half court offense. I would say he’s more of a combo guard than a primary ball handler as of now, but if his stint with Westchester and the game against Houston is any indication, if he turns a portion of midrange pull-up jumpers into drives at the rim, with his frame and touch around the rim, he’ll be able to collapse defenses regularly and generate efficient looks in the half court. If he remains a good shooter and good enough passer in the half court, he can definitely work his way into being a starter, but being only 6-foot-1 likely limits the amount of teams he can start for and puts him in a situation where he works best next to a wing or jumbo initiator.
Finally, there’s Rokas, who probably helps the Knicks as currently constructed the most. If you could summarize the problems that plague the Knicks offensively right now, it’s this simple: advantage creation.
Aside from Rose and Randle, nobody on this team is really capable of tilting the defense as a ballhandler in a way that generates easy offense for everyone else on the floor. Kemba and RJ in theory were supposed to do this for the starting lineup, but Kemba has been inconsistent with his rim pressure due to his knees, and while RJ can provide the rim pressure to a near-elite level, his struggles with finishing limit how much of an advantage he can create (I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the best stretch of RJ’s career with regards to finishing also led to the Knicks having a scorching-hot offense in the first 10 games).
Rokas shoots threes at a high percentage, but doesn’t take a lot of them, choosing to pick his spots — and his spot is usually getting to the rim and scoring inside the arc, where he’s been incredibly efficient: 56.6% on 8.2 2-point attempts per 36 over the last three years. Both at the rim and from middy, he is efficient. With his size (6-foot-4 or 6-foot-5 depending who you ask, with a purported 6-foot-9 wingspan), touch around the rim finishing with both hands, ability to create open looks with his penetration, plus passing and his efficiency (albeit on limited volume), I definitely think he can stick in the league as a starter and as a legitimate primary ball handler, especially if he grows comfortable taking threes at a higher rate (and taking shots in general for that matter).
This is what I mean. Versus a zone, he passes up two shots before taking it. Not a crime, but it’s a common occurrence, zone or not. How much of that is him, vs. the way their team operates?
Questions about Rokas
Prez: For Rokas, you mentioned his advantage creation potential. I know he’s not vertically athletic, but he gets downhill in a hurry with great acceleration, and enough speed and strength that I would definitely call him athletic. He also has a mean cross:
My question is simple: can he consistently scramble a defense? Is he the kind of advantage creator who can get by a defender 1-on-1 without a screen consistently? I’ve seen him destroy guys with the threat of a screen, but I always wonder how much blow-by ability someone like him will show against the quicker and longer defenders of the NBA vs. in Spain. That’s the question for me on offense, because I am confident that, like Deuce (though maybe not to the same extent), he will turn some middies to threes. Can you talk a little about what thresholds he needs to meet to bend defenses as a point guard and make life easier for our Knicks?
Tyrese: His ability to get by guys without a screen is my big question for him as well. Even the cross above was with the threat of a screen. Like you, I love the handle — I think he gets low on drives, and he’s pretty swift in small spaces.
On an NBA team that is decent he’d likely have more room to work than he does in Europe. The drive threat also lets him take advantage of defenders:
I think with some strength he’ll have the ability to do it against NBA level defenders, but I can’t really peg how consistently that’ll be because he legit will get randomly stonewalled on the perimeter on his drives, reset the set, and then three minutes later blow by the same guy. It’s maddening. But yeah — strength seems to be my big swing factor.
Prez: Bonus Rokas question: I’m obligated to ask this about every lefty prospect, but especially Rokas: are you worried about him being SO left dependent? He is one of the lefties who fulfills that particular stereotype. Like both RJ and Julius, lolz.
Tyrese: Honestly, it definitely worries me. Of all the games I’ve seen I can clearly remember one right-handed finish Rokas made. But what gives me confidence is how much of his finishes are, frankly, bullshit. He’ll get bumped, throw it up and it’ll go in. He uses the glass well.
When he doesn’t have the angle to finish, he’ll turn it into a pull-up middy or a jump pass to an open shooter. Don’t get me wrong, he’s gonna need to be comfortable using his right. However, as a backup point guard I don’t think it’ll inhibit him too much.
Now, I have a question for you, El Prezidente.
Rokas has been out of sight, out of mind for most Knicks fans. Even for those of us keeping up with him, we’re not all as familiar with the Euro League as we are the G League and NCAA. Accordingly, he’s a tough evaluation for most of us amateurs. Can we talk about his defense? Good or bad, that doesn’t show up on his YouTube highlights. Part of the appeal for Deuce and Rokas is on that end, so I wonder how Rokas stacks up. I don’t think either of us expect him to be Deuce level on D, but is he passable or are we struggling?
Prez: When I first sat down and watched actual games of Rokas in Barcelona a this year, I was struck by how boring and technical his defense was for the most part. If his man was on the arc, off ball, he would constantly be on his toes, head swiveling every other second. If his man had the ball and used a screen (there’s much less iso ball from the 3-point line in Europe), he’d work to stay on the ball handler’s hip and rear view contest, and if he got help he would not be afraid to play both his man and the passing lane.
One-on-one, he’s not often frustrating anyone like Deuce or Q are — he could take a page out of their book and learn to use his physicality a bit more. They’re also a tad quicker laterally. I don’t think he is used to being bigger and stronger than his opponents, as he’s grown a bit in the last two years. The next step for him on defense is to move from being sound to being disruptive.
One question I struggle with is whether he can contain more explosive guys 1-on-1 — the kind of nuclear ball handlers who are less common in Europe. Granted, most NBA players struggle with those players, so it wouldn’t be a huge red flag. He was prone to a blow-by every now and then in Europe, maybe a handful of times per game. He has to use his strength more to stop that. He was also occasionally prone to a brain fart — not putting his hand up when someone shoots, telegraphing his jump to avoid a screen — but those instances were very rare.
I think Quentin and Deuce are better defenders, but that is more a testament to their talent than it is a penalty for Rokas. I fully do not expect him to be a negative — he is too well-versed in the technical aspects of pick-and-roll defense and off-ball defense, and with his size, that alone will get you to a good place. Matter of fact, if you could give Quentin the technical defensive knowhow Rokas has and give Rokas the defensive physicality and intensity Grimes has, you’d basically get two more Deuces on defense!
Questions about Quentin
Prez: For Quentin: a true 3-and-D player who can put it on the deck and pass seems to be more of a rarity than you’re giving credit. Grayson Allen, despite a near-40-inch vertical, isn’t much of a threat to attack closeouts, let alone make heady passes — he also is average at defense. Prime Wesley Matthews was a tremendous defender, though, and peaked at as a $17 million player (probably over $20 million in today’s game). I think we are both very confident in Grimes’ shooting, and you called his defense excellent…
…so isn’t he destined for some serious impact and serious money? You can probably count high impact wings without All-Star appearances who are true impact shooters and solid defenders on ten fingers. You don’t think we might be underrating Quentin? Where does he fall short of guys like Joe Harris, Gary Trent, Norm Powell, Luke Kennard, or Doug McDermott, Kelly Oubre, and Terrance Ross (to pick a few 2s who make decent money and are considered pretty solid). Is it just size? Is it his defense? Is his shot selection too crazy? I feel like while Deuce and Rokas have some potential to be Real Point Guards™, Q might be the less sexy but more appealing player. Especially to other teams.
Tyrese: Easy on the white boy fundamentals shooter slander, Prez. They’re near and dear to my draft cycle analysis, as evidenced by Sam Merrill’s contributions to the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. I wouldn’t say Allen isn't able to attack closeouts. He definitely can, he’s just kinda hit or miss on converting inside the arc or getting to the line. I would say Grimes is going to make a LOT of money in his career, probably the most of the three if we’re merely talking about floor outcomes. If you shoot 40% on volume someone will pay you $18 million, minimum (see: this offseason). He’s also a tough shot maker.
I think he’s a starter right now, actually. However, like Allen, he’s dreadful inside the arc as it currently stands, and that’s what will hold him back for me until that improves. The guys you listed above don’t have the combination of efficiency, 3-point prowess, and defense that Grimes may be able to reach (Powell may be the closest, but the defense is slipping and he’s always been able to get to the line, which Grimes hasn’t shown much ability to do).
Questions about Deuce
Prez: For Deuce, appropriately, two things.
First, you alluded to him developing a more analytically-friendly shot profile. We’ve seen him first in Summer League, then in the G League, and now for the Knicks put up around 10 threes per 100 possessions — a very analytically-solid number that indicates he’s probably exchanging a lot of midrange jumpers for threes. We also know that you don’t need many games to believe in 3-point rate adjustments, according to recent Knicks hire Owen Phillips. So the big question, as you posed, is his ability to either increase penetration and/or become a serious enough pull-up threat that it opens up his game.
Judging from some of his drives vs. Houston and in Westchester, and increased 3-point frequency, am I crazy to say that he may have already adjusted his game to do just that? The sample of four G League games and one game vs. Houston isn’t enough to statistically matter, but the number of drives, paint attempts, and 2P% are all really good, for what it’s worth.
Tyrese: The Westchester and Houston games are REALLY promising for the improvements I wanted him to make when the Knicks drafted him. If that’s how he plays — i.e., driver, high AST/TO, around 40% from three and strong on-ball and team defense — then he’s a high-level rotation player at minimum. Without more games, it’s hard to know what is a blip and what is a true change in his game, so hopefully he gets more chances to show what he is.
Prez: Second, I might push back on his categorization as a combo guard. He sported a 2.7 AST:TO ratio in college, which is crazy high for anyone not named Tyrese Haliburton. In four games in Westchester his assist percentage was 39 and his AST:TO was a hilarious 3.8. It’s no accident his big game featured nine dimes and zero turnovers — he’s just calm and collected with the ball. He may not be as experienced a pick-and-roll coordination as Rokas, but in Westchester he was running upwards of 15 a game, and his combination of long arms, huge hands, and vision let him throw one-handed hook passes all over the place that other point guards can’t pull off.
What separates Rokas from Deuce as a point guard and passer to you?
Tyrese: I actually think it’s pretty similar to Haliburton. Efficient passers (Haliburton definitely fancier), but definitely struggle without another primary in order to attack defenses and give them windows to attack at the NBA level. Even in the Rockets game, with the nine assists, Deuce wasn’t doing anything wild. Catch and pass to open shooter, lob up to Mitch, hit ahead in transition. Though he had one pass to Mitch in the fourth through two defenders that led to an and-1, which got me out of my seat when I saw it live — it was perfect placement.
I trust Deuce with more primary upside though because of his frame (dude is built like a tank, God bless two-sport athleticism). Currently, I’d say Rokas passes guys open rather than passing to open guys since he’s so capable as a driver, along with the ability to make all the flashy passes, so right now he might bend defenses a little more.
Stop stalling, RANK THE ROOKS!
Prez: OK! There are different contexts to valuating them — as trade assets (i.e. value to another team and not the Knicks), as different sorts of contracts (Quentin being a first round pick, Deuce a second, Rokas’ contractual clock not beginning til he comes over), and of course as potential Knicks rotation players. TALK TO ME RESE!
Tyrese: I’d say Grimes being a first rounder gives him the most trade value out of the three of them. The low cap number and ability to match if he even gets to restricted free agency is too valuable as a trade chip as it stands. He’s also a plug-and-play guy, which helps. Rokas being able to get high-level reps while not having NBA contractual obligations yet puts him second as a trade asset for me. Deuce has the least amount of control and has to get paid first, which makes him the weakest trade asset. I think the trade deadline is gonna be very interesting because Deuce and Grimes look like they can play. The guard rotation with Rose and IQ is very promising if those four are in it post-All-Star break (to say nothing of Kemba).
As for final rankings, I’d say Rokas is the best prospect of the three, followed by Grimes and Deuce. I think Rokas has higher potential as a primary ball handler than Deuce, and with his high-level of finishing and passing — especially if he increases the volume of his perimeter shooting — he can be a very solid player in the league. Six-foot-five point guards who shoot don’t grow on trees.
Where you at Prez?
Prez: I had Deuce ninth on my board for the Knicks, which explains my defensiveness earlier in this piece. My whole theory of Deuce was that because he was a two-sport athlete in high school, missed a year with a football injury, had one of two college years be a COVID year with less practice, and plied his college-hoops trade in a very decidedly non-NBA like team structure at West Virginia, that he had much more development up for the taking than most 20-year-olds. That was coupled with a belief that telling a good shooter to take a lot more threes is easier now than it’s ever been. And the defense. I know that seems like a lot of “ifs,” but I think of it as a parlay where all the bets are good, easy ones — it may seem complex, but it’s a smart money maneuver and not some pie-in-the-sky gamble to me. The upside is there as an undersized scoring point guard with good facilitation, better pull-up shooting, and great defense. And yet…
This whole exercise has made me a bit higher on Rokas than I was coming in. His size and speed is really a game changer. He’s also surprisingly technically sound on defense for a 21-year-old guard. The big swing skill for him is going to be aggression on both ends. At Barca he abides by the rules of elite coach Sarunas Jasikevičius, who runs a very egalitarian and democratic offense with a zillion screens and minimal early shot clock shooting.
If Rokas can tap into his inner Mamba Mentality a bit upon playing in the NBA, there’s no reason he can’t be not only a good shooter, but a very impactful advantage creator as a 6-foot-5 laser beam slicing through defenses swishing and dishing. However, I would be lying if I said I am not nervous about the likelihood of him shedding his current play style for a more aggressive one. Doing that is a lot easier said than done, and there’s not that much precedent of guards who are a wee bit deferential becoming more aggressive — even if he’s far from Ntilikina levels of passive. It’s usually aggressive guards turning down their ball dominance as they enter the league, not the other way around. That’s why I think I still prefer Deuce — he’s already shown he can dial up or down his aggressiveness on both ends.
While I think I'd still have Deuce ahead for internal Knicks value, I'd agree that for other teams he’d be the least valuable. Rokas as a 6-foot-5 ball handler just has more simple pathways to impactful minutes, whether bench player or starter. His contract clock flexibility is also a nice bonus. Quentin is also more valuable simply because what he does is in much more demand — most teams have their initiators and could use movement shooting defenders like him. They’re not point-guard starved like the Knicks have been. Guys like Quentin are important pick-ups for teams every single offseason, and will be as long as 3-pointers remain important. So, fortunately for me, Deuce is still the one I love most for the Knicks, and also who I think is most likely to survive any trades Leon and friends execute in the year to come.
