The Strickland’s 2021 NBA Draft preview, Part 2
The 2020-21 NBA season is almost here, and even if the Knicks win as many games as they can, they’re probably staring at a lottery pick next June. Prez and new contributor Knicks Draft Guy take a look at the point guards, the 5s, and the skilled players that don’t quite fit in a box in the 2021 NBA Draft.
So continues our 2021 NBA Draft preview. Part 1 covered scoring wings, and for Part 2, we are going over three more categories of prospects in this deep class: players who have or have flashed the ability to run and organize an offense, centers, and lastly, a few guys who don’t fit into the other categories but bring at least one elite skill to the table. Also, even more importantly, this Prez Collab serves as the Strickland Debut for the incomparable Knicks Draft Guy. If you don’t follow him on Twitter, go do it ASAP and you’ll be rewarded with tons of video and sharp analysis throughout the year.
The All-Points Bulletin
This section is called The All-Points Bulletin because everyone in it might be able to run an offense in the NBA, and at worst project to be capable secondary ballhandlers on good teams.
Jalen Suggs (G, Gonzaga)
Jalen Suggs is a point guard prospect with above-average size at 6-foot-4, 205 lbs, who isn’t afraid to throw his body around and finish through defenders. He comes to the NCAA with many athletic bonafides: he wasn’t just chosen as Mr. Basketball in Minnesota, he was also Mr. Football, and turned down some elite D-I pigskin scholarships to pursue an NBA career through a one year stint at Gonzaga.
He thrives in transition and is always looking to push the ball up the court, whether it be via a perfectly placed outlet pass or taking it coast to coast himself. His passing and vision also pops in the half court when you watch him play, especially within the flow of this Gonzaga offense surrounded by elite talent, even if his halfcourt handle leaves a little to be desired for a point guard prospect. He’s an underrated athlete, which helps him on both ends of the floor, and he has great instincts to jump passing lanes for steals, but his lack of length limits him some. While his jumper does look smooth, you’d like to see it go in more consistently from deep. Behind Cade, he’s probably the second best primary guard initiator in this class. He’s also an incredibly fun off-ball defender, digging and doubling at opportune times, but rarely overcommitting.
For the diehard draft nerds, I’ve put together long film videos from his first two games for Gonzaga which you can view in the two below tweets (including some bonus Corey Kispert film vs Auburn...I’m sure we’ll get to him in another preview):
Jalen Johnson (PF, Duke)
Everyone’s favorite new archetype is the “jumbo creator,” and that’s exactly the category Jalen Johnson falls into (alongside Scottie Barnes, who you’ll read about later). Coming in at 6-foot-9, 220 lbs, Jalen has an NBA-ready body from Day 1, and while he’s currently playing the 5 at Duke, he’s anything but your traditional center prospect. While he has the rim protection ability as a big, what separates him from other bigs is his passing/vision. Jalen thrives with the ball in his hands, uses every inch of his frame to see over the defense, and can make passes through tight windows. He can really make any pass in the book. I don’t think he’ll be a full-time initiator at the next level, but there is definitely a role for him as a secondary. When it comes to scoring the basketball, he is most dangerous in transition. When he gets downhill he can blow by (or through) guys in transition and finish through contact. He’ll be a real grab-and-go threat at the next level just given his combination or size, athleticism, ball handling, and speed in the open court.
However, I have some questions with his offensive game in the half court. I have confidence in him creating shots for others, but will he be able to create shots for himself (which I’m nitpicking here given his size)? The shot itself is also a question mark with him, it’s going to need some work if he is going to maximize his potential as a prospect. I’m no shot doctor (although I am interested in becoming one, if anyone knows where one can get their PHD in jump shot mechanics), but his shot seems inconsistent and lacks touch/arc at times.
Full film on him below from the Coppin State (very fun stuff) and Michigan State (not very fun stuff) games:
Caleb Love (PG, North Carolina)
Like Suggs, Caleb Love is a point guard with good size at 6-foot-4, 195 lbs, who likes to get downhill and use his body to get into defenders and attack the rim. However, he is much longer than Suggs (I believe a 6-foot-9 wingspan) which, when paired with his ferocious approach to defense, makes him a terror for other point guards trying to bring the ball up the court. On offense, he has a good looking jumper, but I wouldn’t call him a “shooter” quite yet. He seems to prefer beating guys off the dribble to get to his floater or the rim. His footwork and rhythm getting into pull-ups is also pretty impressive. While he may be more of a score first guard, his passing and vision should not be overlooked — it’s solid, especially in transition. He can be a bit turnover prone and dribble drive too deep into trouble.
Having said all that, I don’t think playing at UNC will help him much given the way Roy Williams insists on playing two big men who mainly post up and can’t stretch the floor (eye roll). Don’t be surprised to see his stock fall a little into the late lottery to mid-first round range given that (see Cole Anthony).
Scottie Barnes (???, FSU)
If you missed episode one of the Point Scottie Barnes Show, below is just under nine minutes of film from his first game at FSU:
Scottie Barnes is one of the most fun players to watch in this class. I mean he’s a 6-foot-9, 230 lb human listed as a point guard by Florida State; what’s not to like?! Outside of Cade, he’s probably the highest basketball IQ guy in this draft. He reads the game so well and so quickly, able to make the right pass no matter the situation. I don’t think he’ll be running point at the next level, but there will certainly be times where the offense runs through him.
A lot of people throw out the “1-5 defender” tag, but rarely is it an accurate statement; but for Scottie, it is 100% accurate. The motor he has on defense is unmatched. Whether it’s picking up opposing point guards full court, switching onto bigs, hedging and recovering in PNR, the kid can do it all and does it all at 100 MPH, while letting you know that he’s better than you and letting everyone else know, even if they didn’t ask. The question with Scottie is whether he can score from outside of the paint. He is a non-shooter at the moment, but he does take them (unlike Ben Simmons), he just doesn’t make them. This is the only area of his game that needs legit work/restructuring. If he can somehow fix the jumper, the sky's the limit... but we’re not talking tweaks here: he truly needs some major fixes. His jumper looks a little better than it did at Montverde in high school, but we’re talking improving from an F to a D- here.
Sharife Cooper (PG, Auburn)
#FreeSharife. We still haven’t seen Sharife play at Auburn: his father, long involved in AAU coaching, is the subject of a funny-looking NCAA investigation receiving an unusual amount of money and attention from our favorite terrible corporate sports conglomerate, causing the NCAA to keep Sharife’s eligibility on hold. The kid himself is a 6-foot water bug with an explosive first step, top end quickness, and pretty elite handle. He lives at the rim and the free throw line because he’s impossible to defend at lower levels, and has a pretty advanced bag of finishes and rim approaches that do help him be efficient — even if he still gets blocked quite a bit due to his lilliputian size. I suspect most college teams will similarly be unable to keep him out of the paint.
Sharife is a solid passer who has even shown he can hit a few creative skip passes, despite not being able to see over the defense. He’s a good, if inconsistent, shooter — you certainly have to pay attention to the shooting threat. I don’t doubt the shooting will improve a bit, but that’s not the question for him... the big question for is, can he survive his own defense, which is Trae-Young-but-shorter levels of shaky. The list of impact starters with that kind of defense is literally Celtics era Isaiah Thomas. Whether you think he’ll sniff the lottery or should be nothing more than a second round gamble depends on how much you care about fatal flaws for prospects, and how you weigh that with what might be truly elite penetration, handle, and finishing abilities.
Roko Prkacin (F, Cibona)
The mystery man of this draft (at least this early in the draft cycle), Roko is a Croatian professional basketball player for Cibona of the ABA League and the Croatian League. He came up in the youth system for Cibona. This September he was chosen to be the captain of the squad, making him the youngest player ever chosen for that role at 17 years old — that give you a sense of the respect he’s earned, and of how competitive and even-keeled he is.
What his game like tho, Prez? He’s a 6-foot-9 power forward, skinny but not ridiculously so (not Poku, Ziare, etc. levels), showcasing pretty fluid movement skills and also some hops. Though he’s not overly explosive, he’s not ground-bound either, and as a great cutter and slasher, he goes up with the force and ambition you want to see. He’s put some kids on posters through sheer willpower. His handle is solid, and if he can begin to play a little less hunched over, he could probably get more out of his moves. He also is a plus passer, and loves whipping completely unexpected one-handed slingshots across the court with his combination of height and vision. On defense, you will be unsurprised to hear that he has great feel for what is unfolding, and regularly makes his rotations, stunts properly, and gets weak side blocks. His shot is a bit mechanical, hunched, and slow... but it’s not broken either — he takes four threes a game at about 34%, mostly off the catch, last I checked. It also used to look a lot worse, so he’s put in some work.
You usually hear “if he shoots, he’ll be great” with explosive athleticism guys, but for Roko, I think it rings even more true — if he shoots, he has all the connective tissue in other parts of his game already in place to be a real impact player. Hell, if he shoots, he might be a real, true, point forward initiating prospect.
The 5s
Self Explanatory: the true 5s in this class, each a different flavor from the other, all talented and intriguing.
Evan Mobley (C, USC)
Evan Mobley is a 7-foot, 215 lb big who was seen by some as the No. 1 high school prospect in the class coming into his senior year. He moves like a wing and has good length, which allows him to be a versatile defender who can switch PNRs and protect the rim. On offense, Mobley is comfortable in transition on the grab-and-go or filling the lane. He processes the game really fast, which leads to his plus passing ability for his position. He’s not a back to the basket ball-stopping big, which in today’s NBA is a must, unless you are as dominant in the post as Joel Embiid.
Speaking of post play, Mobley is extremely skinny and will get hunted there by the likes of Embiid at the next level, so he will need to add some weight/strength to play the 5 full time. Mobley has a smooth shot and good touch, so I believe he will become a plus shooter as well and can thrive in pick-and-pops. I can also see him being really effective in other PNR situations as well, including the short roll because of his passing/shooting, and rim running because of his athleticism and size/length.
If you want more film on Sir Mobley, here you go
Usman Garuba (C, Real Madrid)
Young Usman has been making waves for some time in Spain. He was the youngest starter in Real Madrid history at 17. A Madrid star through and through, Garuba was born in Madrid and joined Real Madrid shortly after switching from his first love of futbol to basketball as a 6-foot-2 12-year-old. The soccer footwork and coordination carried over — check this clip shared by friend of the site and Garuba Fan No. 1 Spencer Pearlman:
Usman may be undersized by height, but he has long arms and is strong and smart. He is an exceptional movement athlete, very light on his feet, and just straight up fast when he wants to be on both ends. He impacts the game a ton on defense and he’s still only scratching the surface on that end. On offense, he’s not gonna rack up tons of points, but he’s a solid finisher and isn’t uncomfortable taking a few dribbles. He’s also a very capable passer everywhere from the post to the short roll — his passing flashes are pretty special. His shooting form is, unfortunately, in need of some serious work... more than just tweaks. He can still make a spot-up three every now and then, but right now I wouldn’t consider him to have meaningful shooting potential.
Day’Ron Sharpe (C, UNC)
Day’Ron Sharpe measures in at 6-foot-11, 265 lbs — dude is a tank. However, he has a lot of finesse to his game. He really understands the game and makes really quick reads that are jaw dropping to watch in real time. It’s almost like playing on the best high school basketball team ever was really helpful (Sharpe played with Cade, Barnes, a top recruit from next season named Caleb Houstan, and Moses Moody, who you’ll read about below, at high school powerhouse Montverde). I doubt we will see much more of an offensive game from him besides post finishes because of Roy Williams, but I also think he has more to his game than that.
On defense, he actually moves OK for a guy his size. Mix that with decent rim protection, and that makes for an intriguing defensive prospect at the 5.
Sharpe will likely be an advanced metrics darling despite Roy Williams’ best efforts to play annoying lineups, because he rebounds, racks up stocks like crazy, has all types of passes (and actually passes, not just “shows flashes” like Okongwu) in his bag, and plays solid defense. There are so many good 5s in the league though, it will be interesting to see where he ends up.
A Few Neat Tricks
Not quite a big bucket, not quite a big, but each possessing elite skills that may punch their personal lottery ticket: this crew of kids are riding a few neat tricks all the way into the NBA.
Moses Moody (SG, Arkansas)
A quick google search of the term “glue guy” returns this definition: “a team player who doesn't have to be the absolute best or most known player. However, a glue guy doesn't have to prove that they are valuable to their team; it is already known.”
This could also be the definition for Moses Moody. A shining example was last season at Montverde. Moody wasn’t the best player on the team (which is no slight with a roster with Cade Cunningham, Scottie Barnes, Day’Ron Sharpe, and Caleb Houstan on it) but he was probably the second most important/valuable. Everything Moody does on the floor impacts winning.
Shooting? He’s elite. Defense? He’s also elite, with the size, instincts, and length to disrupt offenses both on- and off-ball. He might even have some upside as a creator — he’s been used off-ball a ton both in high school and at Arkansas, but has been racking up free throws in the early going (an absurd 26 in the first three games of the year), which is a great sign.
Don’t take my word for it, Moody is also one of Jake Rosen’s (@JakeInThePaint on Twitter) guys. Give his article a read for more.
Greg Brown (PF, Texas)
Greg Brown is going to have the most posters of anyone in the class. He’s 6-foot-9 with long arms and Saturn IV rockets for legs, and he already has what might be the dunk of the year.
Giving off big Precious Achiuwa energy, Brown is a bit of a 4/5 tweener: he doesn’t have quite the movement fluidity or ball skills (be it handle or shooting) that you really want from a 4, but is a bit undersized and skinny for a 5. He’s a ball of energy, a great rebounder, can be a devastating weak side shot-blocker, and is pretty much learning team defense for the first time. That being said, Texas’ defense is tremendous, so he landed in a good spot to learn the ins and outs of team D. On offense, he can take a few dribbles, but you probably don’t want him to do that often — he’s a bit out of control and turnover-prone when he tries to do too much. That being said, when he’s moving off-ball on curls and cuts and catches a pass, he looks pretty comfortable handling and darting toward the rim.
His jumper is a clear-cut gigantic swing skill, and it will be fascinating to see where his numbers end up. Preseason folks were unsure of how he’d shoot: he hovered somewhere near 37/70 splits in high school with a shaky-but-not-broken form. He’s begun the season ice cold, 1-15 from three (his 3PR is above .40 early going, he’s certainly not afraid to put ‘em up), but has also begun the season 13-17 from the free throw line (FT% above 75 and FTR above .50). His indicators are all over the place. He’ll probably end up as one of the bigger risk-reward prospects in the class.
Marcus Bagley (F, ASU)
Yes, he is Marvin’s little brother! The younger Bagley’s game is pretty simple: he is tall, and tries as hard as humanly possible to ensure he ends up shooting a three or getting fouled. The 6-foot-8 wing may lack his brother’s inhuman explosiveness, but possesses an absolute ratchet. He’s taken 25 threes in the first four games, hitting them at a 40% clip, and I don’t expect either the rate of takes or makes to meaningfully slow up. He can shoot off catch, off the dribble, and off movement comfortably!
He very rarely shoots in the paint, but plays within the flow of the game and is happy to cut to the rim, pump and drive, or just chuck threes as needed. The shooting threat probably won’t result in as many panic fouls on him in the NBA as it does in college, but that’s OK. On defense he is switchable and light on his feet, capable of defending guards and wings and even bigger post up threats — he’s a pretty strong 215 lbs, I wouldn’t call him skinny at all. Like Moody, he should ride his shooting into the lottery... though we saw for the millionth time in 2020 that NBA teams still undervalue shooting in the draft a bit, so a draft day slide isn’t out of the question.
…and now you’re ready for the 2021 NBA Draft! Kidding, we’ll have much more coverage to come, but now at least you have a good idea to watch for when the Knicks start the season 5-25.
