Why 2020-21 should be the first step on the Knicks’ return to relevancy
The Knicks sometimes feel like they’re running on a treadmill, chasing a carrot on a stick of relevancy that they’re never going to get. Could 2020-21 finally be the year that they start on the path to progress? Jeremy Cohen examines.
Knicks basketball has returned for the first time in nine months, and even though it has only been preseason, Knicks fans’ complaints are in midseason form. Nature is healing.
Fans were flustered and angry through the first two-and-three-quarters games, and with good reason. For the eighth consecutive season, the Knicks appear headed towards an underwhelming campaign, one where we pray for the right combination of ping pong balls to see which prospect’s career this team can destroy as we helplessly stand watch. Self-deprecation is important in life, y’all.
I can’t tell you when the Knicks will be contenders — in the next few years? — but there’s one thing I do know: This should be the last year the New York Knickerbockers will be living in the Stone Age. The 2021-22 season should be the first year the Knicks step into an era that fits a more modern identity, one tailored towards the front office’s vision.
No one saw more roster turnover in the 2010s than the Knicks. When you frequently change front offices, you have frequent roster turnover. Executives want to put their own, unique stamps on teams because they feel it’s their vision. It’s why inherited coaches tend to get fired and why big moves are made (I hope Ben Simmons is only renting in Philadelphia). No one wants to be the do-nothing executive. We will remember Isiah Thomas and Steve Mills far longer than we will remember Phil Jackson. Say what you will about Jackson’s inability to run a franchise, he never made an earth-shattering trade. He did not deal Carmelo Anthony and he did not trade Kristaps Porziņģis. If your biggest trades are sending away 32-year-old Tyson Chandler or packaging JR Smith and Iman Shumpert, you haven’t done anything significant. Unless you’re a Melo stan, no one curses out Jackson’s name in vain for destroying the franchise.
It takes time for organizations to craft their identity and trade away players. Take Frank Ntilikina for example. This man has been through five point guards, four head coaches, three front offices, two guards whose names rhyme with “Bemmanuel,” and a partridge in a pear tree before the tender age of 23. And, as of the time of publication, Ntilikina still stands victorious. Maybe that changes within the next year, but a new executive like Leon Rose isn’t going to have the same sentimental value as Scott Perry does for a player like Dennis Smith Jr. Rose didn’t execute that trade and may have a much easier time moving on from the point guard. If Smith Jr. had trade value, it’s easy to surmise that he would be gone by now.
The single biggest issue fans have with the 2020-21 Knicks is their lack of spacing, with a dearth of lead playmaking at the point guard position coming in a close second. Last year, New York ranked 27th in 3-point percentage, 29th in 3-point attempts, 30th in 3-pointers made, 30th in free throw percentage (despite being 12th in attempts), 30th in true shooting percentage and 29th in effective field goal percentage. And because of that woeful shooting display, New York finished 27th in assists per game. So yes, this is something to gripe about, because through the first three preseason games, the Knicks shot 43.6% from the floor, 23.3% from three, and 63.6% from the free throw line. Those amounts would rank 29th, 30th, and 30th, respectively, in the league last year. Then, the Knicks exploded in game four for 51.3%, 51.7%, and 78.8%.
What’s more, the quality of shots seems to be improving.
Yes, it’s nine months of rust being knocked off and only four preseason games, the best one being an anomaly and a ridiculously small sample size. Sure, there’s still time for things to turn around. The good news is that, as mentioned in the tweet, preseason tends to indicate how teams will look during the regular season.
And yet, despite potential progress, the usual suspects are back.
Elfrid Payton, who was plucked from the miserable scrapheap known as the free agent point guard pile, is unlikely to beat the odds and space the floor this year. Per Jonathan Macri, Payton went 0-for-7 from three in the preseason and is now 19 for his last 100 threes attempted.
Julius Randle, the Steve Mills and Scott Perry gift that keeps on giving, parlayed one season of knocking down less than one three per game at a 34.4% clip into a second, guaranteed year. Considering how every other season of his 3-point shooting percentage begins with the number “two” and how he has more below-average effective field goal percentages than above-average, I’m going to remain skeptical.
Newcomer Nerlens Noel has attempted seven threes in his career. Fortunately he does not live completely under the rim like fellow teammate Mitchell Robinson, who attempted 92.4% of his field goals at the hoop and has yet to take a three in the NBA. Teams know neither player makes his cheddar on the perimeter.
Reggie Bullock, perhaps one of the likely candidates to be buried on the bench once Austin Rivers makes his Knicks debut, had a down season last year after his neck surgery. Over the last four seasons, Bullock has attempted at least 2.4 threes per game while shooting 38.4%, 44.5%, 37.7%, and 33.3%. This indicates that 1) Bullock’s 2017-18 season was a bit of an anomaly and that he’s generally an above-average floor spacer and 2) that him performing below-average the year he was coming back from surgery could be related. What’s more, Bullock’s lowest career 3-point attempt rate was last season. Getting him healthy and back to ensuring at least 50% of his total shots are threes should raise his value and those around him.
Dennis Smith Jr.’s jumper doesn’t look broken, which is a nice little threshold to surpass. His most promising stretch of shooting the ball at a professional level was right before the Mavericks traded him, and even then, he was at the Mendoza Julius Randle line of 34.4% from deep.
Kevin Knox absolutely regressed as a shooter and as a player last year. You don’t need the advanced numbers to tell you how cold he was, but I have them, so I’m going to tell you. Over his two seasons, out of eight different shooting categories that convey accuracy, Knox registered in the bottom half of the league 14 of 16 times. The two times he didn’t? Corner threes his rookie year and non-corner threes last season; both those numbers were in the 50-something percentiles. The encouraging bit of information is that, in preseason, Knox seemed to have rediscovered his touch from the corner and was continuing to find success on non-corner threes. If this carries over and stays consistent, his presence drastically bolsters the bench.
Frank Ntilikina has an extra year on Knox and therefore has 24 categories instead of 16. Ntilikina ranked in the bottom half 22 times, with the only two above water being his corner three shooting in his rookie season and last year. If the man is anything, it’s consistent. Ntilikina missed the final two preseason games due to injury. The comments about his health are a bit perplexing, though. He played in all but four games his rookie season and all but nine games last year, with some being because of DNP-CD. He had a significant groin injury that kept him out his second year but has been playable otherwise. His shooting stroke looks improved, but that has yet to translate.
And finally, we have RJ Barrett. The second-year player has shown strides in a very small sample size of exhibition games. And yet, I have to pop a Lactaid chewable every time RJ attempts a pull-up jumper from mid-range because that shot is butter. Barrett’s game from beyond the arc is still a work in progress, though. The free throw shooting could be an early cause for celebration, as the former Blue Devil connected on 13-15 in four games and hit all eight free throws he attempted the last two games.
That list right there is more than half of the roster, and the vast majority of them are returning players who fail to stretch the floor to such a degree that the Detroit Pistons ran zone in New York’s second game. It’s frustrating to watch from a developmental standpoint and from an enjoyment standpoint. I don’t want to see Randle go coast to coast and finish the possession taking an off-balance three. And if you do, we need to chat.
One of the lesser-discussed drawbacks of being among the oligarchs hoarding cap space this past offseason is that it meant the free agent market wasn’t buzzing with top, unrestricted talent. Forty-five percent of NBA players switched teams in the 2019 offseason because so many teams had or created cap space. And since the best players who signed locked themselves into multi-year deals, the following year (this past offseason) was underwhelming.
Fred VanVleet was never coming to the Knicks. Brandon Ingram and Bogdan Bogdanovic were restricted free agents, and while Bogdanovic left Sacramento, signing a 28-year-old to a contract with a 15% trade kicker feels nearsighted without an alpha on the team. Joe Harris, Davis Bertans, and Marcus Morris signed absurd deals. Between a roster full of players with depressed trade value and a limited market for talented free agents who were both available and willing to sign, New York had very few avenues to build a modern team.
Drafting Immanuel Quickley, a career 89.5% free throw shooter in college, is a start. And while New York’s selection before Quickley, Obi Toppin, is not nearly the tour de force that Quickley is when it comes to spacing the floor, Toppin’s a big who can create, pass, and serve as a threat on pick-and-rolls and pick-and-pops. The bar is higher for Toppin, 22, this year’s Naismith Player of the Year and the eighth pick in the draft. As the season continues, Toppin will grow.
As the fan base (myself included) goes rabid over Quickley, we must remember that he could represent the true emergence of this new era. He was not merely a Kentucky prospect, he was a Kentucky prospect who had a slashline of 41.7/42.8/92.3 last season. Kenny Payne did not advocate for Quickley, the 2019-20 SEC Player of the Year Award recipient, because of nepotism, but because he saw firsthand what Quickley’s potential could be. As there are several loud voices in the the Knicks’ front office; others had to sign off on such a decision.
Every single season, we salivate over the following year’s draft class. So why not also draw attention to next year’s free agent class, as long as we do it responsibly and with our expectations in check? New York projects to have the most cap space in the league next year:
That amount assumes the cap holds of Ntilikina and DSJ are renounced next year. It is a projection, and a slightly flawed one at that (since one or both could hypothetically be re-signed), but neither player will drastically alter this amount. What’s more, that projection also includes Randle’s contract being non-guaranteed, resulting in $4 million in dead salary.
Some of you cynics out there are already thinking “Great, more money for the Knicks to whiff on in free agency.” You see, summer 2021 isn’t about having more cap space than in the 2020 offseason, even if that is true. The 2021 offseason is about contracts like the players listed earlier rolling off the books, assuming they weren’t traded already. Merely jettisoning Randle will feel like a step in the right direction from a spacing perspective. Being able to allocate the money going to Randle this year to a more compatible player next year will go a long way for roster construction.
Though extensions and injuries mean the 2021 free agency class lacks the star power many fans thought it might have, that does not mean it’s destitute in terms of players who can be solid starters. Spending a significant chunk of that money on starting-caliber players and a bench player or two who can make plays, space the floor, and play unselfish basketball will make this season feel like a stepping stone.
And if we’re back to talking 2021 prospects, the Knicks currently hold two first-round picks and two second-round picks, all of which expect to fall in the top 45 selections of the draft. New York could walk away from the draft with four players who can be threats from the perimeter, although it’s more likely they instead try to consolidate their assets. Swap out two starting spots currently occupied by Randle and Payton for proven and consistent free agent shooters, as well as bringing in two or three shooters from the collegiate level, and you’re cooking with gas.
Here’s how the depth chart looks now…
Guards: Payton, Burks, Smith Jr., Rivers, Quickley, Ntilikina
Wings: Barrett, Knox, Bullock, Ignas Brazdeikis
Bigs: Randle, Robinson, Toppin, Noel, Omari Spellman
And here’s how it could look...
Guards: Quickley, Rivers, FA signing/trade target, 2021 draft pick
Wings: Barrett, Knox, Brazdeikis, FA signing, FA signing/trade target, 2021 draft pick
Bigs: Robinson, Toppin, Spellman, FA signing/trade target, 2021 draft pick
See how different that would be? The Knicks should also be making some trades, but the targets are harder to predict. Some of the more viable unrestricted free agents in 2021 could be Victor Oladipo, DeMar DeRozan, Spencer Dinwiddie, Evan Fournier, Kelly Oubre Jr., Mike Conley, Dennis Schröder, Will Barton, Josh Richardson, Danny Green, Norman Powell, and Burks. There could also be some poachable restricted free agents like Devonte’ Graham, Lonzo Ball, and Duncan Robinson. You’re not going to love every one of these players (I certainly don’t), but they would all make this team more multi-dimensional on offense. Acquiring a few of these players wouldn’t be earth-shattering, but they could vault the Knicks into play-in tournament territory and then take another leap the season after that. You can afford to commit to multiyear deals, especially since the free agent market for top-10 stars is fairly barren the next few years. (I kid you not: The moment I finished typing this sentence, Shams tweeted out that Giannis Antetokounmpo re-signed. So yeah, that fact is even more true now.).
Spacing isn’t just 3-point shooting, of course, but there’s a relevant case study we should examine that features the stat. Back in the strike-shortened 2011-12 season, the Utah Jazz snuck into the playoffs as an eighth seed. After that, Utah missed the playoffs for the following four seasons. Their 3-point percentage during those years, in chronological order, was eighth, 25th, 19th, and 12th. The Jazz finished in the top 12 the next four seasons, including last season, when they reigned supreme as the league’s best 3-point shooting team.
Why am I talking about the Jazz? Because of Walt Perrin, of course. Rebuilds take time, and success can’t happen overnight. Seeing as how the Jazz are exceptionally homegrown, someone like Perrin is keenly aware of the spacing needed to rejuvenate a team with a gutted, rudderless roster. What’s more, someone like Rose is going to listen to Perrin, who serves as the team’s assistant general manager. We have to see this season as year one of the Rose administration, because that’s exactly what it is. This year’s going to feel a lot more like when the Jazz ranked 25th than it did when they ranked eighth. But you know what? With a few modest upgrades here and there, 19th is within reach. Maybe 12th is the following season and then the Knicks finally crack the top 10 after that. Perhaps they even skip a step. Who knows?
This year’s Knicks team will be the equivalent of your gawky years as a teenager. Your body’s changing, you’re going to see a ton of awkward shit, and you’ll want to hit the fast-forward button — but you can’t. It’s staring you right in the face and you have no choice but to accept it. Keep in mind that as we curse out the players who remind us of the past and praise those expected to be here moving forward, this truly is a process. And in that process, we must recognize that a third of the roster is likely to be replaced and probably upgraded next year as the Knicks claw their way to relevancy in the more lackluster conference. These words may not provide you any solace as the Knicks find themselves missing perimeter shots right and left, but outside of a possible Gordon Hayward signing, this year was never really about this year anyway. So let’s toast to what projects as a mediocre 2020-21 season, one that has to occur in order for us to get closer to the light at the end of the tunnel.
