Weaponizing the Knicks’ cap space: A Brock Aller fever dream
There’s been a lot of scuttlebutt surrounding the Knicks’ offseason plans, and it’s tended to focus on headline-grabbing moves. This has historically been the Knicks’ focus as well, much to their own detriment. The current flavor of the week is trading for Chris Paul. If you want my thoughts on that please listen and subscribe to Pod Strickland, but this isn’t a piece about grabbing a starry name.
No, this is about something much less fun, and much more nerdy.
:throws on Brock Aller mask:
Today I want to talk to you about using the Knicks’ cap flexibility to generate value. That value can manifest in multiple ways.
Most obviously, it’s important the Knicks provide their young core with an optimal environment for development, or at least work towards that goal as best they can. That can be done by signing players who add skill sets and fill positional needs that help slot young players into roles which play to their strengths, while they gradually extend themselves and expand their games.
Players that can help the Knicks develop their young core are important in the immediate picture, but their value must extend beyond that limited scope. Consideration must be paid to how those players can be used in trade, specifically to net assets which can then be used in a year (or two) or further down the line to add pieces around a then, presumably, more developed core of players.
Of course, assets can be acquired in exchange for absorbing unwanted, bloated contracts, too. The Knicks should be active in courting such offers, but that’s not a market they can directly control. Teams like Atlanta and Detroit can also offer themselves as dumping grounds, and another team could prefer to compensate them to do so rather than the Knicks for any number of reasons.
However, I won’t be examining those type of opportunities in this piece. My focus will be strictly on free agents who I believe can be had for fair market value and provide value to the Knicks’ efforts in developing their young talent, and specific teams who I believe will be willing to offer worthwhile compensation to acquire them, should they be made available in trade.
So, without further ado…
Fred VanVleet — three years, $67.5 million
What he adds to the Knicks:
I know what you’re thinking.
“$22.5 million per year is a steep price to pay!”
Yes, yes it is. But, as I’ve argued for what at this point feels like decades, there are a number of reasons why VanVleet would be an excellent signing for the Knicks. He’s the prime example of the type of player the Knicks should absolutely be willing to make a serious investment into.
He’s the best point guard on the market, and at 26 years old, experienced enough to provide the veteran presence and guiding hand this young roster needs, while still young enough to be viewed as a long-term building block. He provides on- and off-ball value as a shot creator, ball handler, and shooter, which will help accentuate the strengths of the team’s core young pieces, specifically RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson.
Honestly, a 20% cap hit (which will decline in the eventual likelihood of the cap climbing over the life of the contract) for an in-prime, above-average lead guard with pull-up shooting gravity who grades out as a legitimate plus two-way player is completely fine. It should especially be fine for a franchise whose best point guard play over the last decade is a couple of solid stints from Ray Felton and a few weeks of Linsanity.
A trade we can bank on:
If you find these arguments compelling for the Knicks, they’re precisely why VanVleet would hold appeal to a variety of suitors on the trade market, specifically playoff teams looking for a significant backcourt upgrade. So, pray tell, what’s the trade for FVV that the Knicks could count on making this season if they chose to explore that option?
Memphis receives: Fred VanVleet, Reggie Bullock
New York receives: Gorgui Dieng, Grayson Allen, Marko Guduric (IDK either), and Memphis’ 2021 first round pick (lottery protected in 2021, top-10 protected in 2022 and top-7 protected in 2023, top-3 protected in 2024, converts as a second in 2024 and 2025 if it doesn’t convey by then)
For Memphis, they convert two expiring contracts (Dieng and Guduric) and a throw-in from the Conley deal (Allen) at the cost of a heavily-protected first to add a combo guard who dovetails and complements Ja Morant perfectly. Ja did some of his best work as a rookie in lineups with De’Anthony Melton, a combo guard with suspect shooting and limited off-the-dribble game.
VanVleet provides an immediate upgrade offensively, is a plus defender, and alleviates the outsized playmaking burden Morant shouldered last season, while fitting into the timeline of the Grizzlies’ rebuild. Bullock gives them another wing shooter to add into their rotation and perhaps helps replace some of what they lacked after Jae Crowder’s departure in the Justise Winslow trade.
This is just one trade I feel very confident the Knicks could cash in on. I believe there would be plenty of suitors for FVV if he was on the market on such a contract.
Christian Wood — three years, $42 million
What he adds to the Knicks:
Wood isn’t the best big man on the market this offseason, but he’s the one with the most upside. Just turning 25, he would, like FVV, fit the Knicks’ perceived timeline in building methodically around a still nascent and developing young core.
I’ve made my full pitch for Wood previously, and even I’m still not entirely convinced. There are obvious concerns about fit with regard to pairing him and Mitchell Robinson in the frontcourt, especially in a lineup that’s already likely to feature RJ Barrett, who is still very much a work in progress as a shooting threat.
That said, a Wood/Robinson pairing would give the Knicks arguably the most athletic duo of big men in the league. Wood’s burgeoning perimeter game could provide an interesting dynamic in lineups alongside Mitch and in lineups where he operates as the sole big. He’s shown upside as a help defender, and his quick decision making offensively combined with his ability to create for himself help to mitigate his lack of playmaking.
A trade we can bank on:
While there are legitimate concerns about adding a big man like Wood into the mix on a team that already has a promising young center, not every team can say the same. As we’ve seen thus far in the playoffs, the demise of the big man may have been overstated, as Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic, and Bam Adebayo laid waste to quality opponents.
Certainly a team like the Clippers, who bore the full brunt of brute Serbian force, would be interested in acquiring the services of a player as potentially dynamic as Wood. However, they aren’t the team who the Knicks should initially engage in trade talks if they choose to move him down the line. My primary focus would be closer to home.
Boston receives: Christian Wood
New York receives: Enes Kanter, Vincent Poirier, Romeo Langford, and Boston’s 2021 first (top-20 protected in 2021, lotto protected in 2022, top-5 protected in 2023, converts into two seconds in 2023 and 2024 if not conveyed)
The Celtics have built a promising young roster on a foundation of Brooklyn Nets lottery picks. They’ve looked poised to take over the East for a few years now, only to be thwarted by LeBron James’ existence or the unexpected rise of another Eastern conference rival. This year, they were bashed into submission by a tour de force performance courtesy of Adebayo.
Going center-less sounds like a great pivot until you play a team with a big who you can’t play off the court. Wood gives them an option to match up beyond Daniel Theis, Grant Williams, or hopes and dreams. They get him at the cost of some expiring contracts, a young wing who barely featured at a position they are well-stocked at, and what is likely to be a late first round pick without sacrificing a single core piece.
Yes, Danny Ainge is loathe to trade away any picks or young players ever, but this deal would leave them with every key rotation player from the roster of an Eastern Conference finalist, and helps address what was their single biggest weakness in the postseason. Also, Boston’s locked in as an over-the-cap team for the foreseeable future, so trades will take on increased importance in building out the roster. Getting a 25-year old big man with the type of production Wood is capable of, and whom they were interested in at the trade deadline, fills both short- and long-term needs. Hell, if I thought Ainge wouldn’t run away in horror, I’d say the Knicks should try to extract a couple of seconds from the deal too!
Bonus: When Wood helps the Celtics win the 2021 championship, we’ll get endless mentions of how the Knicks gave him away for basically nothing!
Double bonus: The Knicks get to waive Kanter! Again!
Jerami Grant — two years, $29 million
What he adds to the Knicks:
The Knicks signed all the power forwards last summer, yet none provided the requisite spacing nor the defensive prowess which would have made life easier for RJ Barrett or Mitchell Robinson. So, by all accounts, the Knicks are once again in the market for a floor-stretching forward who can provide the spacing they desperately need to provide more optimal development conditions for their presumed foundational pieces.
Jerami Grant would fit the bill coming off of a strong showing in an unexpected and dramatic Western Conference Finals run for Denver. A survivor of “The Process” in Philadelphia, Grant has slowly turned from a raw physical talent into a capable two-way role player able to proficiently spot up from beyond the arc — 37.4% over the last 4 seasons — and attack closeouts with aplomb.
Unlike some of the other stretch forwards on the market, Grant has proven to be a capable defender. A nuclear athlete capable of the spectacular, he’s demonstrated the ability to make an impact crashing down to contest at the rim as a help defender. He’s also athletic enough to credibly check guards and wings on the perimeter and switch across positions.
Still just 26 years old, Grant would be an experienced veteran who fits the timeline of the Knicks’ rebuilding situation while playing a position which has been a glaring weakness for New York.
A trade we can bank on:
Two-way stretch forwards tend to be highly coveted pieces contending teams look to acquire at the trade deadline. The Knicks experienced this firsthand last year, as they were able to parlay Marcus Morris’ hot shooting stint into a late first and future second from the Clippers.
Grant, barring a complete collapse of personal standards in New York (always a possibility) would be a near-certainty to generate interest. His mix of age and playoff experience would make him highly attractive to a number of teams around the league. Certainly a team like Minnesota, which finds itself committed to win-now mode while building around two minus defenders in D’Angelo Russell and Karl Anthony-Towns. would have interest. However, it’s another Western Conference team looking to reach the summit that should be the Knicks’ prime target if they look to recoup asset value.
Portland receives: Jerami Grant, Reggie Bullock
New York receives: Trevor Ariza, Mario Hezonja, veteran’s minimum salary filler, and Portland’s 2021 first (lottery protected in 2021 and 2022, top-10 protected in 2023, top-6 in 2024, becomes two seconds in 2024 [via ATL] and 2026 if not conveyed)
Portland has been working the fringes of their roster for years now around their Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum guard axis. Since losing Wesley Matthews to an Achilles rupture during the 2015 season and his subsequent departure, and their trade of Nicolas Batum, Portland has spent the following years cycling through a variety of wings ranging from functional to outright ass.
The brilliance of Dame and CJ, and the emergence of Jusuf Nurkic, has allowed Portland to continue to compete for playoff berths in the West, but the Blazers have never had anywhere near enough juice on the wings to truly be considered a competitor. While losing a future first isn’t nothing, this deal returns a quality stretch forward in Grant who gives them a necessary addition that adds youth, athleticism, and defensive nous to the mix. They also receive a solid if unspectacular wing shooter in Bullock.
In exchange, the Blazers send out 35-year-old Ariza and some worthless expiring contracts, and are able to keep their entire playoff rotation. The deal gives them more options in situations where they need to play smaller, rather than have to rely exclusively on a 36-year-old Carmelo Anthony as their sole stretch four.
If they’re committed to continuing to work the margins around their major pieces, there would be very few trades which return value and address needs without costing them young pieces they value highly like Gary Trent Jr., Anfernee Simons, or Zach Collins. This trade checks all the boxes for them.
Joe Harris — two years, $32 million
What he adds to the Knicks:
If there’s one thing we can take to the bank in the league today, it’s that you can never have enough shooting. The Knicks, unlike most of the league, eschewed that logic last season, regularly fielding a starting lineup of all subpar shooters, and rarely playing more than one shooter on the floor at any given time. Addressing that is at the very top of Leon Rose’s to-do list, or at least should be.
Adding Harris would be a major move in the right direction. A reclamation project who Sean Marks picked up off the scrap heap, Harris developed into one of the league’s most feared shooters under Kenny Atkinson’s tutelage, shooting 43% from beyond the arc over the last four seasons. Again, if the goal here is to build with the idea of optimizing the skillsets of RJ and Mitch, adding one of the league’s most feared movement shooters with a dribble drive game that’s become more of a weapon to play on the wing alongside them is a no-brainer investment.
A two-year, $32 million offer for Harris would also put the Nets in a difficult position to match from a tax standpoint. Given the luxury tax threshold remains at $132 million next season, re-signing Harris for a starting salary of $16 million would put them $26 million over the tax line, which, as first time offenders, would cost them a whopping $68 million in tax payments. This assumes they decline Garrett Temple’s team option, keep the ten players with guaranteed contracts already on their roster, and simply add a first round pick (via Philadelphia), Harris, and use their tax mid-level exception of $6 million. Conversely, if the Nets let Harris walk, they could enter the season with a roster of 13 players and a tax penalty of only $16 million. Put simply, it would cost the Nets $68 million (the $52 million extra in tax plus the additional $16 million in team salary owed to Harris) to keep him in this scenario. And we haven’t even talked about what happens if they stay over the tax as repeat offenders in 2021-22.
The same contract for the Knicks wouldn’t require anywhere near that level of financial commitment and certainly garner interest around the league were they to make Harris available in a trade down the line after signing him. Every single playoff team in the league would carve out a spot in their rotation for him. Of course, desperation can be a forceful motivator for teams looking to improve their roster before the postseason.
A trade we can bank on:
Milwaukee receives: Joe Harris
New York receives: Ersan Ilyasova, Robin Lopez, DJ Wilson, Milwaukee’s 2021 first (lottery protected in 2021 top-10 in 2022, top-10 in 2023, unprotected in 2024), a 2022 second (via IND) and a 2025 second (more favorable of MIL or IND)
There might be other teams who would eventually offer more, but it’s a safe bet that Milwaukee will be aggressive about upgrading their roster as Giannis’ potential free agency looms following the 2020-21 season. Of all the issues the Bucks have faced in the playoffs, the lack of overall shooting has been one of their biggest in two consecutive early exits.
Giving up non-rotation players, an almost certain late first in the 2021 draft, and a couple of seconds received from the Malcolm Brogdon trade in exchange for one of the league’s premier shooters isn’t a major risk. The Bucks’ priority must be to build the most competitive roster they can around the type of MVP talent that may never fall in their laps again, and convince him to commit to Milwaukee. This is a potential means to that end.
It doesn’t feel great to simply sign players with an eye on what they could return in assets down the line. I don’t enjoy it (JK, I kinda do), but when you’re building from what is essentially the ground floor, these are important considerations. The value of a player has to extend beyond what the Knicks believe he can do on the court to benefit them over the life of the contract.
It’s equally important to consider what the value of the player delivering expected performance would be on the trade market and to project potential buyers. Given where the Knicks are in team-building, planning for and being open to all kinds of possibilities is imperative, and doing so must be a primary focus for Leon Rose and company.
