2021 Knicks Free Agency Profile: Josh Hart

The Knicks need guard and wing depth, even after addressing some of that in the draft. Could Josh Hart give them not only good production as a guard, but a player that maybe gives them the ability to finally play small ball as well?

The Knicks head into free agency with a glaring need on the wing. This year’s free agent class leaves a lot to be desired in that realm, but there are some solid options with some upside that can probably be acquired for cheap. 

Enter Josh Hart. 

The Pelicans just offered him a qualifying offer, making him a restricted free agent, but all signs point to him being very available. Rumors have come out suggesting Hart is looking for a fresh start. The Pelicans also have Lonzo Ball’s restricted free agency to worry about, and rumors suggest they are pursuing Kyle Lowry, which would tie up their cap space. They are not a team that would be interested in paying the luxury tax. They also stumbled into Naji Marshall last season, who is cheaper and fills the same role Hart did. He has become expendable for the Pelicans. 

Hart is one of the more intriguing free agency options when considering a multitude of factors like age, likely price point, upside, and his style of play. The 26-year-old could thrive in a Knicks jersey and will not command a pricey contract. 

Let’s take a look at exactly who Josh Hart is as a player. 

The Good

Hart is probably the best rebounding guard not named Russell Westbrook in the NBA. He ranked fifth in rebounds off the bench, and first among guards off the bench. A lot of his rebounds are uncontested, but that does have *some* value, especially in a small-ball lineup.

Having a guard who willingly crashes the glass on both ends is extremely helpful when playing small. It was evident in the playoffs with guys like Bruce Brown and Terance Mann. 

The Knicks should be looking for guys who can make lineups with Julius Randle at center a more viable option like Hart or Justise Winslow. Hart may be able to play some power forward situationally due to his frame, or could play on the wing alongside a Randle/Toppin front court. Hart could be an important component of unlocking small-ball units. He’s shown himself to be capable of holding his own against bigger guys, as he does here against Carmelo Anthony. 

Hart is a good finisher who can attack a closeout and put pressure on the rim. He’s an aggressive driver and his strength helps him in that regard. 

He’s a guy that can attack the gaps in a rotating defense. Hart is aggressive in transition, and coupled with his rebounding capability, he ends up getting a lot of coast-to-coast buckets. 

While Hart isn’t an elite defender, he is average-to-slightly-above-average on that end. He is not a stopper defensively, but he is solid. He’d fit in with the Knicks’ defensive scheme, as he is good at helping at the nail, something that is central to the Knick defense. Hart has active hands and good anticipation defensively. He has a knack for getting steals while behind ball handlers and is solid at the point of attack as shown here. 

The Bad

The biggest weakness in Hart’s game at the moment is his 3-point shooting. He’s failed to shoot above 34% from three since his rookie season, when he shot 39%. His struggles from beyond the arc are part of the reason why he won’t be a more sought-after commodity in free agency. There are even more concerns with his shooting when digging deeper into his shooting numbers from this past season.

He shot just 29% (20-69) on corner threes and 32.4% on catch-and-shoot threes. He shot 36% (36-100) on “wide open” threes, which is defined as shot attempts where there isn’t a defender within six feet. He shot 32.1% (25-78) on “open” threes, which is defined as shot attempts where there is a 4-6 feet of room from the nearest defender.

These numbers are all concerning, to say the least. 

With that being said, there’s a fairly good chance he could improve as a shooter. Just about every Knick improved their 3-point percentage this past season. Hart becoming a 36-38% is not out of the realm of possibility next season, and that would up his value. 

Hart isn’t a guy who creates advantages against defenses, as Alec Burks did, for example. His value on the offensive end comes after a defense has been shifted where he can attack a rotating defense. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it is worth noting if his signing with New York would come as a replacement for Burks. This is fairly obvious, but the shot creation Burks brings would not be replaced by Hart and would need to be found elsewhere.

Conclusion 

The best way to define Hart’s game is to view him as a utility guy. He can do a lot of things well, just none of them great. He’s a really solid rotation piece whose best role is probably as a 7th-8th man on a playoff team. His market will likely be somewhere in the $10 million range annually. He would be a pretty solid piece off the bench who could help plug some holes. 

For his expected price point, Hart would be a really solid addition. While there are better options for wings like Norman Powell, Evan Fournier, and Will Barton, they will all command bigger deals in terms of money and years. 

The Knicks’ need for a wing who can eat minutes, adds rim pressure, can defend, won’t break the bank, and has some upside, should make Josh Hart a prime candidate for them in free agency.